2022 Big 12 contender or not? Texas Tech

On3 imageby:Ian Boyd02/17/22

Ian_A_Boyd

The Red Raiders are starting over in a sense after sacking Matt Wells during the season. They had a clear vision for his replacement, first targeting Jeff Traylor at UTSA before circling to Joey McGuire at Baylor. What do both of them have in common? They are former championship Texas high school coaches with loads of connections and respect across the state and a knack for recruiting and energizing young men to play the game.

McGuire has had early support as well. He was able to hire Zach Kittley from Western Kentucky (formerly an assistant at Tech under Kliff Kingsbury, the blessed) to be offensive coordinator, and longtime coordinator (formerly at Texas A&M) Tim DeRuyter on defense along with defensive backs coach and longtime Texas recruiter Marcel Yates.

In recruiting, Tech made a reasonable pass at Quinn Ewers from the transfer portal and have thus far managed verbal commitments from five different players for the 2023 class rated as blue chip recruits, four of which are projected to play defense. They have a new NIL collective rolling now called “the Matador Club” which should prove useful in maintaining this momentum.

Therein lies the difference in the new plan. Tommy Tuberville, Kliff Kingsbury, and Matt Wells were all able to keep the Air Raid going with former Mike Leach assistants (or players) at offensive coordinator. What they couldn’t work out was how to play winning defense out in Lubbock, nor how to get top athletes out to Lubbock to make an attempt in such an endeavor. The plan under McGuire, a coach with a defensive background in his own right, is to emphasize culture, recruiting, and defense while still playing a high flying offense. It’s a good plan.

So what’s the prognosis in 2022?

Roster infrastructure

This is where things look sorta iffy here for Tech in year one. For the last few years, Tech’s strong suit on offense has been running the ball with a very good interior O-line, blocking tight end Travis Koontz, and some really strong backs like Sa’Rodorick Thompson and Tahj Brooks. Their initial plan in 2021 was heavy on running the ball and throwing it wide and down the field with strong-armed Tyler Shough, which went awry because their defense started the year poorly and Shough went down with injury.

They maintained the run game and then, amazingly, interim head coach Sonny Cumbie started to see some results on defense. Some results, not anything mind-blowing, they still got blown away by Oklahoma in week 1 under Cumbie and gave up 38 to Iowa State the next week, but it was downhill from there. They played winning defense against both Oklahoma State and Baylor to end the year.

Some key factors in their defensive success were players who will return in 2022. The middle of the defense returns squatty and quick tackles Jaylon Hutchings and Tony Bradford (14.5 combined TFL), inside linebacker Krishon Merriweather, and two out of three safeties. It’s much easier to play good defense when you have as much experience and ability up the middle as Tech will boast in 2022. Such a group is capable of playing defense without committing major busts or errors which give away yards and of doing so with a wider array of tactics and diverse gameplans.

Some of these guys are also legitimately quite good. Everyone I mention above popped on film at points in 2021. This is also all within a 3-down defensive concept, which McGuire used at Cedar Hill and then furthered at Baylor under both Matt Rhule and Dave Aranda. DeRuyter is also a 3-down coach who spent much of the last half-decade running something akin to the Aranda system under Chris Wilcox at Cal. They have the players and the fit to maintain a positive trajectory on defense, as crazy as that sounds to say about a Texas Tech football team.

Maintaining their standards on offense may be a lot trickier. Pass protection hasn’t been their strong suit but it will need to be good in 2022 to make Kittley’s Air Raid work. They’ll be working in a nearly brand new line while trusting Caleb Rogers and Ethan Carde (probably) at the tackle positions. Three of their four starters are moving on, including interior stalwarts Dawson Deaton and Josh Burger who helped powered their run game (along with Jack Anderson in 2020) for the last few years. They do at least return left guard Weston Wright.

Their running backs return but tight end may have to be a bit of a time share. Mason Tharp returns after a nice freshman year in 2021 but at 6-foot-9 (listed, at least) he’s not much of a blocker, it’s tough to get low and drive people at that height. West Texan Henry Teeter can be more of a Y-back blocker for the Raiders but he isn’t going to flex out and scare anyone.

The biggest question on offense is at quarterback. Donovan Smith was a revelation after taking over late in the year but the redshirt sophomore will now have to compete Tyler Shough to try and hang onto the job. Shough has some big time physical talent but tended to be confused by defensive disguises and would throw the ball into coverage. Smith has running ability he translates into improvisational skill, he’s really a fascinating story. Rated as an 85.90 (3-star) prospect, he had some camp numbers at 6-foot-4, 192 which didn’t portend what he’d become. He ran a 5.01 40 in 2018 with a 4.33 shuttle and 32.2″ vertical. The shuttle and vertical suggest some natural athleticism but nothing like what we saw from him at 6-foot-5, 230 pounds last season when he took the field.

However, he has the typical failings of other big, strong-armed athletes. He doesn’t get the ball out quickly, preferring to trust his ability to hang on and make a throw late or make something happen with his legs. Both of these guys have some pretty rare talent, but you don’t want either to have to carry the offense with a dropback (progression) passing game. They need a run game for their abilities to shine and Tech is completely overhauling their run game this season.

Space force

These are your force multipliers, the positions where a great athlete can make plays in space which can flip games. Left tackle, deep threat receiver, island cornerback, and Edge rushers are the four “space force” positions. Texas Tech has typically been mixed here for the last decade or so, fielding a few really good tackles and receivers but very few Edges or great cornerbacks.

Things are a bit grim here on offense. Erik Ezukanma was the main guy at receiver for the last few years and he’s moving on. They still have Myles Price and Kaylon Geiger and added Minnesota transfer Brady Boyd, Ezukanma was their main weapon outside though. Perhaps big Loic Fouonji can put it together to give them another deep ball target.

Offensive tackle is shaky as well. T.J. Storment transferred in from TCU with his massive frame last year to help them out and 6-foot-5, 290 pound Caleb Rogers was the main guy at right tackle while 6-foot-8, 320 pound Ethan Carde played some at tackle and guard. Storment is gone now and neither Rogers nor Carde are obvious All-Big 12 caliber pass protectors at tackle.

Defensively things are a bit brighter. Tyree Wilson put things together pretty quickly and proved to be the sort of “he just needed a chance to play rather than being stuck behind NFL caliber players!” transfer everyone hopes they’re getting when they take on someone else’s backup. The former Texas A&M Aggie gave them a 3-down defensive end with the length (6-foot-6, 270 pounds) and athleticism to set the edge and rush the passer (seven sacks). This was huge, as otherwise the plan was just to blitz off-ball linebackers and hope to hit more often than they were burned.

Cornerback doesn’t have anyone great but Adrian Frye is back for a sixth year and Rayshad Williams was solid enough as a left cornerback a year ago. Overall I think the defense will be pretty solid. They may not have a force multiplier at cornerback but they probably won’t be terrible and the pass-rush could be quite solid.

Can Texas Tech contend in 2022?

For the Big 12 title? Very likely not. They’re transitioning into a new program, even if Kittley and DeRuyter are likely to do less violence to their offensive and defensive systems than other hires, which always tends to take time to really catch on. I’m a believer in McGuire’s ability to connect with his players and lead the program in a new direction but it’s a tall order to stand out in this league in your first attempt.

Particularly when you’re completely rebuilding the line which was keeping everything afloat in the run game for the last several years and moving on from perhaps your most dangerous skill talent (Ezukanma).

Tech has a tough schedule as well. The non-conference gives them Houston at home and N.C. State in Raleigh, NC. They’ll get Texas and Oklahoma in Lubbock (man…those games) but have to travel to Iowa State, K-State, and Oklahoma State. Here’s the worst stretch:

  • Houston
  • @ NC State
  • Texas
  • @ K-State
  • @ Ok State
  • bye

That’s rough, it’s early in the season, and if you have any sort of injury issues everything could snowball fast and you’re piling up losses and re-evaluating your goals for the season.

I think a win for Tech this season would be handing a big L to Texas or Oklahoma in what might be their last game in Lubbock for a while and then out-recruiting their non-Texas/OU Big 12 foes with the 2023 class as they’re currently on track to do. The goal for Texas Tech is to be the big, bad, resourceful state school in the new look Big 12 who re-emerges from their slumber with solutions on defense and recruiting. It doesn’t need to happen overnight, just take a few steps in that direction in 2022.

Do you think Texas Tech can contend in year one under Joey McGuire? Discuss for free on the Flyover Football board!

You may also like