2022 Big 12 contender or not? West Virginia

For a brief moment in time I thought West Virginia had a chance to catapult all the way up to “Big 12 favorite in 2022.” Over a week or so they enjoyed the announced returns of D-lineman Dante Stills and Mike linebacker Josh Chandler-Semedo, the departure of quarterback Jarrett Doege, the addition of offensive coordinator Graham Harrell, and then USC quarterback Jaxson Dart entered the transfer portal.

Had the Mountaineers added Dart to their roster, it would have been a considerable infusion of talent. Instead it looks like he’s going elsewhere, perhaps to Oklahoma to sit and learn from Dillon Gabriel, or perhaps to Ole Miss with Lane Kiffin.

At any rate, West Virginia still has an interesting team for next season but it may still be missing a quarterback who can guide them at a high level.

Roster infrastructure

West Virginia was solid here last year save for at quarterback and then only sporadically. Jarrett Doege could be pretty good at times, but he’d lose his mind a few times every game and make mistakes which could cost them games. Ultimately he couldn’t overpower opponents, either by running or throwing, and was always living on the narrow margins of needing to read defenses well, be protected, and make great decisions. It’s possible to win that way, but it’s difficult.

Where you really notice a quarterback or team’s lack of a dominant feature is in the red zone where space constricts and you have to power the ball in with a laser throw or pure power running. West Virginia has been bad in the red zone for a while now.

At this point it appears the next quarterback will be one of the following:

Garrett Greene, a 5-foot-11, 192 pound redshirt sophomore who ran a spread-option package last year. He has a solid arm but they didn’t trust him to make many progressions a year ago and those are difficult skills to acquire quickly. Harrell’s system will help.

Will Crowder, a 6-foot-2, 208 pound redshirt freshman who has done next to nothing to this point. Crowder seems like the type who could be very good after several years of training within the system.

Nicco Marchiol, a 6-foot-2, 216 pound true freshman (early enrollee) who’s already signed an endorsement deal and is always talked up as one of the more talented players to be signed by West Virginia under Neal Brown.

If you #FollowTheMoney you probably assume they’ll give it to Marchiol, between his high ranking and the hiring of Harrell you have to wonder if the plan is to invest into developing him sooner than later. Harrell has started first year quarterbacks before, his system is the equivalent of Gary Patterson’s 4-2-5. You split your offense into three parts (box, receivers on left, receivers on right) and each one has a few things they rep to mastery and you arrive at multiplicity by using different combinations.

They need to win soon, especially when you consider how the O-line is starting to shape together. They return the entire starting five from the end of 2021, including the blue chip right side of Doug Hester and Wyatt Milum. Tight end still has Mike McLaughlin and running back found Tony Mathis over the course of the 2021 season.

They should be able to run the ball as well or better than before, which has been a core feature to their identity under Brown. Of course Harrell tends to run the ball less and he’s calling the plays now. Harrell will also want to change up the offense in a fundamental way from being a two-back scheme to an 11 personnel scheme. We’ll talk about it more in the offseason but the gist is this, Harrell wants the tight end in position to run down the seams quickly and not be trapped behind the O-line in the backfield.

I doubt Neal Brown allows them to give up on being a physical team in the run game, but you hired Harrell for a reason so you have to give him some leeway.

Defensively, Brown went into 2021 talking up the middle of the defense. They liked Stills, were confident they had something good in Akheem Mesidor, Chandler-Semedo was moving to Mike linebacker after a good bowl game there, and then veteran safeties Scottie Young, Sean Mahone, and Alonzo Addae patrolled the middle and shifted them in and out of multiple coverages.

Remarkably, much of this returns intact in 2022. Mesidor and Stills coming back is downright scary for the rest of the league and Chandler-Semedo can obviously find the ball playing behind them (110 tackles in 2021). This also gives them more time to develop guys behind those three, which already looked pretty promising.

They lose their three safeties, that’s the tough part.

I’ve been watching them develop and rotate guys pretty well in the secondary for a few years now so I’m inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt…but it’s not nothing to replace three starters at the cerebral position of safety. The guys who seem in line to replace them, Aubrey Burks and Saint McLeod, are only sophomores.

I recall they were good pretty quickly with young defensive backs when Brown first arrived so I think they’ll be okay. Still…

Space force

West Virginia is quietly very strong here.

Cornerback was boosted last year by the addition of FCS star Charles Wood who ended up playing well down the stretch for them. Nicktroy Fortune and Daryl Porter are also back and they added another FCS guy in Marcis Floyd.

Between those four, they should be pretty good and might be able to move someone to nickel or safety.

On the other side of the perimeter, Bryce Ford-Wheaton is back after catching 42 balls for 575 yards and three scores. He was pretty scary at times and will be stronger still if they can more consistently push the ball outside from quarterback. Winston Wright and some others are leaving the wide receiver room but they have BFW, Sam James, and some others still around.

Their ability to get numbers on the field is in question somewhat, but the top line talent is definitely there and Harrell will find it very easy to make the most of BFW after working with big receivers at USC like Michael Pittman, Jr (6-foot-4, 223 pounds) and Drake London (6-foot-5, 210 pounds).

Offensive tackle will bring back Brandon Yates, who was weaker in 2021 than I expected, and Wyatt Milum who was promising as a true freshman. I wonder if those two flip sides in 2022, either way they’re in solid shape.

On the edge they bring back Tahj Alson after a solid season at end. Vandarius Cowan is moving on so there’s really no one left on campus who’s much of a threat coming off the edge. Stills can do it some, and likely will, but they could really stand to add a linebacker who could blitz the edge effectively.

Even without that piece, their D-line starters combined for 16.5 sacks last season and they can get after the passer with a 3-man rush.

Can West Virginia contend in 2022?

This totally depends on getting a big shot in the arm from moving on from Neal Brown/Jarrett Doege to Graham Harrell/whoever they choose.

Everything else has been in place for a year or two now. They’re not amazing across the rest of the roster, but they’re definitely competitive with the rest of the league. They just haven’t had a consistent identity on offense, something they can count on to win games in the fourth quarter or the red zone. Harrell’s job is to figure out how to provide that identity with the quarterbacks on the roster.

If he succeeds, the roster is strong enough and the rest of the league is open enough for West Virginia to break through.

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