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A look at where Texas would rank according to the BCS

by: Justin Nash8 hours ago

The rankings put out weekly by the College Football Playoff selection committee in 2025 look a lot like the ones spit out by a simulated BCS equation.

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Let’s look at just how aligned the committee has been with the model BCS poll and see where each element has Texas. For the record, Texas is currently No. 16 in the CFP rankings and was No. 14 in the simulated BCS rankings released on Sunday by BCSKnowHow.com

First, a very simple explanation of the model BCS made by BCSKnowHow.com. The original BCS was two parts human (Harris Interactive poll/USA Today Coaches poll) and one part computer amalgamation. They combine these elements to give us the BCS poll. The current iteration from BCSKnowHow.com uses the same computers (A&H, Billingsley, Colley, Massey, Sagarin-R, Wolfe) as well as the Coaches Poll, but has replaced the Harris Interactive Poll with the AP Poll.

A much more in depth explanation can be found here.

So far in 2025, the committee and the BCS have had the same group of teams in the top 10 with some variances in specific rankings. If you extended the range to the top 12, only last week with No. 12 Miami did we see a shakeup from the BCS rankings.

(BCS = left || CFP = right)

Looking at each of the computers, Texas is in the top 12 in four of the six. The Longhorns come in at No. 12 for both Sagarin-R and Massey, No. 11 in Billingsley, and a playoff qualifying No. 10 in Wolfe. A&H and Colley have the Longhorns outside of the top 12.

Unfortunately for Texas, given the committee’s consistency with the BCS poll, it’s hard to see the path in for the Longhorns right now. But with a strength of schedule rank of No. 8 and a strength of record ranking of No. 12, both according to ESPN, the path is not completely blocked off.

Ultimately BCS rankings doesn’t feel like something to be up in arms about. The BCS had its share of problems back in its era and the system was made to select two teams, not 12. Even if there are some similarities in rankings, the process looks a lot different with a committee deciding things and using analytics to inform their decision rather than letting the analytics make the decision.

What the BCS and CFP polls both say is Texas likely needs some lopsided conference championships or to be the darling of the committee to make the field.

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