A salvaged Big 12? Pt III, who we got?

On3 imageby:Ian Boyd09/10/21

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I wasn’t sure if the Big 12 was going to be able to successfully include AAC powers Central Florida and Cincinnati in a round of expansion. It still seems clear schools like Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas, West Virginia, and Iowa State (or really anyone) would bail for the Pac-12, ACC, or Big 10 if given the chance. Under those circumstances, how attractive could this partnership be to programs in good standing in the AAC?

Apparently still reasonably attractive, especially with BYU in the fold. Even if West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas, and Iowa State all managed to bail (unlikely) the teams in the remaining Big 12 would still be connected to TCU, Baylor, and Kansas State and whichever other new schools might be joining in another round of expansion. In other words, you could rebuild a new AAC in that doomsday scenario which included Big 12 leftovers and BYU, a stronger setup than the current AAC. In fact, you have something like the old Big East before TV contracts for football burned it to the ground.

The new four members of the Big 12 conference all make sense and should make the conference as competitive as ever, rich with parity and multiple programs with comparable resources.

Also, obviously on the basketball side of things there’s a lot of power here…which is why they all may end up together in this new, also-ran Power-5 conference. If any were major football draws (market-wise) they’d be in the ACC or somewhere else. Still, this will be a fascinating conference to watch, sort of like the current AAC where power shifts based on who’s up and coming coach has been poached by a bigger program, who missed on a hire, and who’s up and coming coach is rebuilding the roster.

The new programs: An overview

Here’s a five-year average of what BYU, UCF, Houston, and Cincinnati have done in terms of player input (recruiting), output (NFL draft picks), and overall record compared to the top four non-Texas/OU programs over the same period.

I think there are three things which really stand out.

First of all, average recruiting is somewhat comparable between these four schools and the Big 12, but the Big 12 schools have more higher end talents (4-star recruits) in their classes. Iowa State is the exception to that rule and their recruiting average is consequently more comparable to the four new additions. All of these schools appear to need to pick it up to compete in the Big 12 but there are a couple of factors which belie that apparent truth. Cincinnati has already picked it up and their last two classes under Luke Fickell were much closer to the higher end, ir8te standard with both averaging out over .8500 and including three total blue chips.

I know fans of teams on either side of the thick black line will complain this doesn’t factor in transfers. Well, Cincinnati had a 4-star transfer left tackle who helped power their run last season before being drafted and Baylor is starting multiple transfers this season. It cuts both ways. This at least gives a snapshot of relative talent levels and recruiting success.

The other factor is the NFL output. For whatever reason, recruiting at a lower level has not stopped these schools from producing 39 draft picks while the four Big 12 schools listed had 36. So it’s not obvious there’s a substantial talent gap.

The big question concerns the records. Obviously most of the four new schools have better records (looks at Houston) but you’d expect this given their lower level of competition. Houston doesn’t play UCF and Cincinnati every year, BYU’s record is inflated by going 11-1 last year when they didn’t play nobody. How will they fare in the Big 12?

Let’s dive into each one.

Local flavor: The Houston Cougars

The Cougars have been both an exciting offensive program most years of their existence as well as a fun if humble hometown program in one of the most important metroplexes in the country where college football is concerned.

Many may wonder why Houston would be included in expansion while SMU is left out. The answer is Houston, the city, is not a market the Big 12 has as much reach into without Texas and Texas A&M involved. The metroplex is LOADED with Texas and A&M alumni and tunes in regularly for their games, but less so for Baylor, Texas Tech, TCU, and Oklahoma State whom are all more densely concentrated up north in DFW.

If you added SMU to the Big 12 right now, with Rashaad Samples already taking their recruiting beyond some of these schools and Sonny Dykes piling up wins, the Mustangs become the coolest brand in the metroplex. TCU and the others aren’t looking for that kind of competition, it does little for them even if the rivalry would be fun.

But Houston, none of them have a chance to be the top school there anyways, so the Cougars are in. Playing regularly in Houston is a win for everyone in the Big 12, even Oklahoma was willing to take the Cougars on in NRG back in 2016. There’s a TON of talent in the Houston metroplex, arguably even more than in DFW.

The Cougars have been known for aggressive offenses making the most of local talent but their best teams really didn’t quite fit that mold. The golden age was when Bill Yeoman was winning the Southwest Conference in the 70s with his veer offense. Their best season ever was 1979 when Yeoman went 11-1 and beat no. 4 Arkansas and no. 7 Nebraska but lost to no. 8 Texas.

More recently Art Briles won Conference-USA once with his “veer and shoot” before moving on to Baylor. Kevin Sumlin had a solid run next with a 10-4 season in 2009 which lead to Mike Gundy poaching his offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen. Sumlin eventually promoted Kliff Kingsbury, the blessed, and went 12-1 in 2011 before taking the A&M job. A later tenure produced what may have been the second best season in Houston history, the 2015 team with Tom Herman’s power-spread. Herman went 13-1 with three wins over ranked opponents, an AAC Championship over the Matt Rhule Temple Owls, and then a Peach Bowl win over Jimbo Fisher’s Florida State Seminoles.

The obvious play in Houston is to mimic SMU’s current strategy, recruiting locally by trying to play up the “we’re the H-town team!” while also trying to land transfers through the portal who grew up in Houston and are homesick or looking for fresh opportunity. Tactically, you can make a case the Houston high schools produce talent best utilized by emphasizing athleticism, defense, and the run game.

Current head man Dana Holgorsen has a nice contract which lulled him away from West Virginia (making $4 million per year in future seasons if he keeps the job). The resources and opportunity are there for Houston to make hires to compete with the other schools in the Big 12. They’ve done so before.

Growth stock: The Central Florida Knights

The Knights had a terrific 2010s, arguably even better than emergent Big 12 programs Baylor and TCU. In fact, UCF whipped the 2013 Big 12 Champion Bears in the Fiesta Bowl. Then in 2017 they claimed a National Championship after going undefeated and doing something the ir8te have struggled to do, securing a prominent non-conference win over an established blue blood. They beat SEC runner-up Auburn 34-27 in the Peach Bowl with everyone watching on TV.

I don’t think they’re necessarily known for defense, more for Blake Bortles (2013) and McKenzie Milton (2017), but defense has been what put their best teams over the top and the reason why Josh Heupel’s 2020 team fell off in a big way (6-4). If you look at their draft picks over the years it’s largely skill talent, defensive backs and receivers they found in Florida or surrounding areas. They’ve had a number of NFL players over those years and the 2017 Peach Bowl win had a lot to do with Shaquem Griffin (6-foot-0, 227 pound, one-armed linebacker who ran a 4.38) working Auburn over off the edge.

Gus Malzahn could tell you all about it because he decided UCF was a perfect landing spot after Auburn fired him last season. I’m curious to see how this goes though, Malzahn likes to emphasize the power game and poached longtime K-State strength coach Chris Dawson to help him get some beef on the Knights. Their specialty is in recruiting speed of the sort which grows on trees in Florida.

So the Knights can definitely recruit speed to give them an edge in the Big 12 if they can make the most of it with their head coaching hires.

Rust belt restoration: The Cincinnati Bearcats

Cincinnati is regionally in an interesting place in this country. It’s technically a “rust belt” city down in southwest Ohio but they’ve evolved beyond manufacturing as an economy more quickly than some other areas. You can call them “Midwest” and they certainly recruit there, but they’re also sitting on the border of Kentucky and are very much in “Appalachia” as well.

Football wise, it’s a Catholic town with a lot of German and Irish Catholics (head coach Luke Fickell is a German-Catholic) and a lot of private schools which tend to draw in and develop the area’s talent. The Bearcats get a good share of those kids and then also hit Appalachia (northern south), the Midwest, the Atlantic Coast, and then normal spots like DFW and South Florida.

Cincinnati, like many AAC programs, is a “kingmaker” program which served as a stepping stone for Brian Kelly in his path to Notre Dame. It’s the ideal stepping stone for Notre Dame because success at Cincinnati is so tied to successfully recruiting area Catholic schools. Their guy after Kelly was Butch Jones, another big time recruiter who then took the Tennessee job. Their strongest team historically is probably either the nearly undefeated 2009 team (lost their bowl after Kelly left for Notre Dame) or last year’s 9-1 squad who took Georgia to the brink in the Peach Bowl.

The Kelly team was a WIDE OPEN spread offense chucking it vertical to speed. The Fickell squad pounds people with inside zone to a pair of power backs and then mixes in RPOs to tight ends and quarterback keepers by special athlete Desmond Ridder. The 2020 Bearcats were also a special defense, coached by Marcus Freeman who was then poached by…Notre Dame. Their current formula is a more smashmouth version of Iowa State on offense with an elite running threat quarterback and then something more like TCU on defense, not schematically necessarily but with an emphasis on athleticism and man coverage.

Anywho, the Bearcats have a natural recruiting turf which is pretty rich, much like UCF. West Virginia is a fairly natural rival for them, their existing rivals are really Louisville and Pitt (Appalachia and Rust Belt), so the ACC would probably be their ideal landing spot but here we are. UCF has been rising up their enemies list so the fit there makes sense at least.

The 2020 Bearcats would have been real contenders in the Big 12, certainly if Texas and Oklahoma were out of the equation. Oklahoma has obviously been a nationally elite team under Lincoln Riley and Texas, underachieving as they have, would still be a challenge to a school which wants to whip you in the A-gaps because of their ability to recruit blue chip defensive tackles.

I figure the Bearcats will try to do a version of Kansas State or Iowa State’s “we’re the tough, midwestern team here who will play defense and run you over inside” contender. They could do it, too.

Hinterland pariah: The BYU Cougars

The BYU Cougars are their own thing in college football. They have a rich tradition on offense and are arguably often ahead of the curve relative to the rest of the Big 12. They really pushed the envelope with the modern passing game in college football, inspiring Mike Leach to build the Air Raid and producing notable offensive minds like Norm Chow and current Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian (legendary BYU passer).

More recently they went 11-1 in 2020 by blending the wide zone offense with college-friendly concepts like the zone-read, jet sweeps, spread sets, and the “Mesh” passing concept. In particular, they ran the Mesh play with the fifth receiver in the pattern running an option route outside while the other four ran the typical wheel-shallow-curl-sit route progression.

The Z receiver runs an option route (often an out). If he’s not 1-on-1, the QB goes through the normal progression of R, X, F, Y.

Getting out ahead of schematic trends on offense is just one of BYU’s historical tendencies. Their recruiting territory and demographics are very unique because the school is an institution of the LDS Church (Mormons). They tend to draw in a bunch of Mormon kids from Utah or nationally, but then the hard-working missionaries (virtually every member) of the Church has also spread the religion into Africa and the Pacific Islands. To be blunt, the roster is typically loaded with local white kids, a few African-Americans, and then a very large number of Polynesians (Samoans, Tongans, Hawaiians, etc). What’s more, the school has strict rules against consuming alcohol, caffeine, or engaging in premarital sex and the Church asks its members to spend two years of their lives after high school living on mission on behalf of the Church.

As a result of all these factors, they’re often a little short on speed, their players sometimes spend a year or two in the program before taking a two-year hiatus to serve on mission, many of their players are married, there are a few massive Islanders in the mix, and they end up with a fair share of older players. Their defensive philosophy consequently tends to resemble Iowa State’s when they play spread teams.

Here’s the hapless Houston Cougars trying to spread them out to run the ball last year.

As you see, much like Iowa State they’re pretty comfortable playing “bend don’t break” in coverage while allowing their D-line and linebackers to overpower your offensive front. The front here goes:

  • Defensive end: Zac Dawe, 6-foot-4, 271 pounds. 24-year old 3-star from UT.
  • Nose tackle: Caden Haws: 6-foot-2, 315 pounds. 22-year old 2-star from AR.
  • Defensive end: Bracken El-Bakri, 6-foot-5, 286 pounds. 22-year old walk-on from UT.
  • Will linebacker: Isaiah Kaufusi: 6-foot-2, 220 pounds. 24-year old 3-star from UT.
  • Mike linebacker: Payton Wilgar: 6-foot-3, 235 pounds. 20-year old walk-on from Utah.
  • Sam linebacker: Keenan Pili: 6-foot-3, 233 pounds. 22-year old 3-star from UT.

You get the idea. Age and maturation are integral components to the BYU system, they’re like ultra K-State with their emphasis on physicality, discipline, and winning on the margins. Can that work in the Big 12? Obviously yes, it’s an established formula.

So…how will this work?

Expanded playoffs or bust.

This new look Big 12 will collect a much smaller TV check and split it between 12 schools rather than 10, so everyone is losing money except the new additions who probably benefit marginally. The only hope of this making everyone happy is the event we still see an expanded playoff which draws in 1-2 Big 12 teams every year (more is definitely better) and dumps some cash in the league’s account.

Doomsday scenario goes like this:

-Expanded playoff is mostly used to include teams like Texas, Michigan, Miami, or other big programs who finished 2nd or 3rd in their division or conference.

-The new Big 12 is intensely competitive without a clear alpha, blue blood program which has a resource advantage (basically like the AAC). Teams keep trading places at the top without maintaining momentum.

-You get a crab bucket effect with several programs both losing money and struggling to build momentum or brand while existing as a boom/bust program in a competitive league without big ticket draws.

The hope has to be one or two of these schools is able to use the competitive schedule and expanded playoffs to grow their program into a true regional power which boosts the credibility and draw of the league. It’s something of a longer-term play though and everyone I listed is “up against it” trying to stand out in their region save for maybe BYU, who’s region isn’t a pipeline of elite talent anyways. Should be entertaining though.

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