Considering Heisman odds for 2022

On3’s Matt Zenitz recently posted an article on the Heisman race for 2022, listing his top 10 contenders among which were included Big 12 players Bijan Robinson and Dillon Gabriel and Big 12 exes Caleb Williams and Zach Evans.

The current odds for a top 10 go as follows per Vegas Insider:

• Bryce Young, Alabama, +200
• CJ Stroud, Ohio State, +400
• Caleb Williams, USC, +900
• Bijan Robinson, Texas, +1,500
• DJ Uiagalelei, Clemson, +2,000
• Will Anderson, Alabama, +3,000
• Dillon Gabriel, Oklahoma, +3,000
• Treveyon Henderson, Ohio State, +3,000
• Spencer Rattler, South Carolina, +3,000
• (J.T. Daniels of Georgia, Tyler Van Dyke of Miami, and Jaxson Dart of Ole Miss are also all listed at +3,000)

Of further interest in Big 12 country, Quinn Ewers is on the board as well at +4,000. I’d like to go through this list one by one and talk through factors I think will govern whether each has a legitimately good chance to hoist the trophy in New York.

Who wins the Heisman?

The Heisman really functions as the Most Valuable Player award for College Football. You could almost use NIL earnings as a decent proxy for who will win because the winner will always correlate closely to the player who’s most famous, has the strongest story/narrative, and is the top billing cast member of the season.

For that reason, it’s usually a quarterback award at this point. DeVonta Smith snagged it in 2020 (rightfully so) but the previous four winners were quarterbacks, then Derrick Henry, then five consecutive quarterbacks.

Here was the breakdown of the last 10 winners:

Year	Winner	Position	Production	Record
2021	Bryce Young (Alabama)	Quarterback	4,872 passing yards, 50 TDs	13-2
2020	DeVonta Smith (Alabama)	Wide receiver	1,856 receiving yards, 24 TDs	13-0
2019	Joe Burrow (LSU)	Quarterback	5,671 passing yards, 65 TDs	15-0
2018	Kyler Murray (Oklahoma)	Quarterback	5,362 total yards, 54 TDs	12-2
2017	Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma)	Quarterback	4,627 passing yards, 49 TDs	12-2
2016	Lamar Jackson (Louisville)	Quarterback	5,114 total yards, 51 TDs	9-4
2015	Derrick Henry (Alabama)	Running back	2,219 rushing yards, 28 TDs	14-1
2014	Marcus Mariota (Oregon)	Quarterback	5,224 total yards, 57 TDs	13-2
2013	Jameis Winston (Florida State)	Quarterback	4,057 passing yards, 44 TDs	14-0
2012	Johnny Manziel (Texas A&M)	Quarterback	5,116 total yards, 47 TDs	11-2

It takes some pretty gaudy stats to get there and all but one of these teams was in the vicinity of the playoffs (Louisville) while four of them won the National Championship. If you don’t think one of the quarterbacks listed above can put up numbers like this then you will default to one of the top skill players. Defenders don’t win the Heisman.

Bryce Young

The odds of Young winning the Heisman again are not particularly great. For one, voters don’t like giving out repeat Heisman trophies, Archie Griffin is the only player to pull it off and that was in the 70s. For another, success by a returning player is likely to correspond to a big season by one of his teammates who then potentially steals headlines. For instance, Matt Leinart was still awfully good in 2005 but Reggie Bush seized the glory after Leinart had won in 2005.

In the case of Alabama, Young has to put up huge numbers again and do so with a rebuilt receiver corps which will inevitably include (if he’s in the running) someone who emerges to put up enormous numbers. There’s also the chance people look at a strong return season for Alabama and attribute the success more to defense, especially anyone who starts to feel bad they didn’t reward Will Anderson’s absurd 2021 season. So you have the potential for a three-ticket split which holds back Young and gives voters an excuse not to give him a second Heisman.

Ultimately, no one wants to give back-to-back trophies to someone who isn’t dominating at an unbelievable level. Everyone will be looking for an excuse to snub Young and it should be easy to find them.

CJ Stroud

Stroud is a much better value than Bryce Young simply because he wasn’t able to win it in 2021 and now he comes back at the helm of a hungry Buckeye team which will be built around his strengths.

It also helps he loses both Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson for the purpose of credit distribution come award season. The Buckeyes still have Jaxson Smith-Njigba to build the receiving corps around and a number of ultra-talented young players ready to plug in around him. They also have a talented O-line and Treveyon Henderson to keep teams from sitting back in two-high like Michigan did to the Buckeyes last season.

So while Young could have a big season but people may say, “Wow! Jermaine Burton/JoJo Earle/Jacorey Brooks!” etc, for Ohio State the story will remain fixed on the quarterback who didn’t breakthrough and win the Big 10 or Heisman trophy in the previous season. He’ll also probably have a better defense which doesn’t blow their chances with big, well-viewed losses like Ohio State endured last season.

He’s not as good of a player as Young though, so there’s a complicating factor in this, not that it typically matters who’s actually better when it comes to picking Heismans.

Caleb Williams

I don’t like this one at all. Williams has the talent to put up absurd numbers like the ones you can see on the table above and he’ll be working with a solid supporting cast and Lincoln Riley. However, USC isn’t that great yet and this isn’t a typical “loaded program plugs in blue chip quarterback transfer” situation like we’ve seen of late.

You’re basically betting on the Pac-12 being bad enough and Colin Cowherd being loud enough in conjunction to propel a 10-2 type Trojan team and their star quarterback to the top of the national focus. The screeching from teh state of Oklahoma will add to the cacophony as well…so the story will be very loud and the narrative very strong if the Trojans can get rolling…

But can USC block? What kind of shape will the offensive line be in? How quickly can Alex Grinch fix up the defense? Is there much skill talent left for Williams to work with in year one or will they need a season to work out the personnel?

You’re basically betting on Williams making a leap as a player, finding enough support from his teammates, and then the bonus of having LA media suddenly wake up to college football and immediately decide the shiny object in front of them is the most amazing thing they’ve ever seen. Not a terrible bet, but not ideal.

Bijan Robinson

I think this one is pretty decent, essentially your default if the quarterbacks above don’t have breathtaking seasons for which they derive all the credit.

Bijan was pretty amazing in 2021 with 195 carries for 1,127 yards at 5.8 ypc and 11 rushing touchdowns while playing behind a decent run blocking line, with two different quarterbacks who struggled to constrain defenses, and with a receiving corps who had a phenom freshman but was obliterated at every other spot by injuries and lack of star power. Betting on Bijan is basically betting on Texas’ transfer additions like strong-armed quarterback Quinn Ewers and big-play receiver Isaiah Neyor preventing defenses from keying in on him like they could do in 2021.

It’s a good bet. Will he put up enough stats sharing the stage with those receivers and his eminently qualified back-up Roschon Johnson? Can Texas win the 10-12 games necessary for him to have big, signature performances? Maybe. If Texas is good in 2022 though Bijan will end up with a strong case, especially given how big of a story it will be if “Texas is back!”

DJ Uiagalelei

I like the bet on a DJU comeback season and Clemson finding some success and redemption for their “down” 2021 season. They basically just need to get back to fielding NFL wideouts and fix up their run game. Tall tasks for most teams but Clemson was nearly on auto-pilot in either regard before last season’s slippage. Was it a short blip or are they experiencing program-wide erosion?

If it’s the former, Uiagalelei will have a big season chucking it downfield to capable receivers off the threat of a rejuvenated spread run game. I think though that if Uiagalelei was capable of throwing for 4,500 yards or so and leading Clemson with Heisman-winning numbers that we’d have seen a few more signs. He’s definitely a solid player, but even Joe Burrow was (imo) way more capable in 2018 than people seemed to think. Uiagalelei is probably a bit underrated but I don’t think he’s Joe Burrow waiting to happen and I don’t see Justin Jefferson or Lamarr Chase on the Tiger roster.

Will Anderson

Anderson had 101 tackles, 31.5 tackles for loss, and 17.5 sacks in 2021 and didn’t make it to New York as a finalist.

Some will feel bad about that and try to give him a chance in 2022 if he has another silly season but then he’ll just end up playing spoiler for Bryce Young.

If the season listed above can’t even get you to New York then a defensive player will not win the Heisman. We’ve been through this before, if you watched in 2009 you were reasonably sure it would never happen.

Dillon Gabriel

Horrible bet.

Dillon Gabriel is a good player who will be trying to help Oklahoma manage a year one within a totally new system after a massive talent drain. He’s also very much of the “system player” mold, which can mean a lot of things fair or unfair, but typically means “if he wasn’t in this system would we know his name?”

You might, but he’s closer to Bryce Petty than Bryce Young and the limitations of Gabriel and the system he plays in were evident when UCF played some of the better defenses on their schedule and will certainly be apparent in Big 12 play.

Treveyon Henderson

Has a running back ever won the Heisman when his quarterback was dropping huge stats? Reggie Bush did, arguably Adrian Peterson the year prior (2004) but he was also edging out a reigning Heisman winner (Jason White) that no one wanted to give the trophy back to. Mark Ingram played with Greg McElroy and Derrick Henry with Jacob Coker, who were far cries from CJ Stroud and this Ohio State passing game.

It seems most likely that Henderson will end up, at best, spoiling matters for CJ Stroud. Perhaps Michigan or another Big 10 team plays two-high coverage all day and Henderson carries the Buckeyes to a big win with 200 rushing yards while Stroud is relatively quiet. I don’t think it’d be enough to give Henderson the Heisman but it might just spoil Stroud’s case.

Spencer Rattler

Oh I very much doubt it. For starters, how many games is South Carolina going to win next season? For another, his favorite target at Oklahoma (tight end Austin Stogner) might be going with him but he’s hardly an explosive target who will help the Gamecocks put up gaudy passing numbers. They return their top receiver from 2021 (Josh Vann) but this wasn’t an explosive offense last year (22.6 points per game) and they have to navigate the SEC East, Western bouts at Arkansas and against Texas A&M, and then end the season on the road in Clemson.

If you believe Rattler is going to put it all together and guide a surprisingly strong Gamecock team to a 8-10 win type season where they are a factor in the SEC East title picture, it’s easy to see him garnering the necessary support. On the other hand, I’ve seen this guy struggle to put it all together in two hyped seasons and melt down in consecutive Red River Shootouts so I wouldn’t be particularly eager to push my chips in on him figuring it out without Lincoln Riley’s help on a schedule which will ask him to win games in Fayetteville, the Swamp, and Clemson.

It’s not abnormal for someone off the radar to emerge and win the Heisman, but as they are by definition “off the radar” it’s hard to figure out right now who they will be. You have to be able to see “off the radar” candidates, which of course is difficult.

From the list above I think CJ Stroud is well positioned to throw for a gazillion yards and end up with the winning story from among the quarterbacks, which makes him the frontrunner. He also has a more proven, established supporting cast than does Bryce Young. If you don’t like a quarterback to win it, Bijan Robinson is probably the best bet unless you think Texas finds a way to lose four or more games.

Who do you like to win the Heisman in 2022? Discuss for free on the Flyover Football board!