Fun with On3 data and Texas' 2022 recruiting class
On3 announced the release of the Recruiting Prediction Machine almost two weeks ago, the next evolution in predicting where athletes will attend college.
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More details can be found here via On3 founder Shannon Terry, but this isn’t the only recruiting data available on On3’s platform.
On3 has a few different unique metrics related to Texas’ 27-member class ranked No. 5 in the On3 consensus.
According to On3, Texas’ 2022 class is ranked 10 spots higher than the 2021 class put together by former head coach Tom Herman and current head coach Steve Sarkisian. The same 2022 class has a class score of 92.33, almost a full two points higher than last year’s class. It currently ranks first in the Big 12.
Humble (Texas) Summer Creek offensive tackle Kelvin Banks is the highest rated member of the class. He is the Consensus No. 15 overall prospect in the country, No. 1 tackle, and No. 4 prospect in Texas.
The highest rated defensive signee is Little Elm (Texas) defensive back Terrance Brooks, who checks in at No. 42 in the On3 Consensus, No. 7 among cornerbacks nationally, and No. 8 in the state. Brooks is rated as a five-star prospect in On3’s internal rankings.
Seventy percent of the class as it’s currently composed is from within the state of Texas, with an average distance from hometown-to-Austin of 370.4 miles.
Spearman (Texas) receiver Brenen Thompson has the farthest drive among in-state commits with a 455 mile trek from the Texas panhandle to the state capital.
Austin Westlake three-star offensive lineman Connor Robertson and three-star edge Ethan Burke are obviously the closest to the Forty Acres, so close that there isn’t even a number listed on their profiles for distance from Austin. Same with Austin Regents kicker Will Stone.
Of the 30 percent of the class from out of state, two have 1000-mile trips: Gardena (Calif.) Junipero Serra QB Maalik Murphy and Federal Way (Wash.) Todd Beamer OL Malik Agbo.
Phoenix (Ariz.) Brophy College Prep DL Zac Swanson and Gilbert (Ariz.) Williams Field long snapper Lance St. Louis have 800+ miles trips, while Napoleonville (La.) Assumption’s J’Mond Tapp, New Orleans (La.) Warren Easton CB Ronald Lewis, Southaven (Miss.) DL Aaron Bryant, and Trussville (Ala.) Hewitt-Trussville DL Justice Finkley all have trips of near or over 400 miles to Austin.
One of the other metrics On3 computes is the blue-chip percentage. The blue-chip percentage is a number measuring how much of a class is rated as four-stars or five-stars.
Like the in-state versus out-of-state numbers, Texas’ 2022 class is 70 percent blue-chip prospects. That tops the 64 percent set by the 2021 class, but falls 10 percentage points short of the 2020 class.
As the On3 Database grows, more numbers will be available. The 2023 class will be the first to see most decisions evaluated by the RPM, although Arlington (Texas) Seguin DB and 2023 Texas commit Jamel Johnson announced his decision before RPM’s launch.
But all in all, by the numbers, Texas signed one of the country’s best classes.
