Inside Texas Roundtable: Looking at the No. 5 Texas Longhorns ahead of the final regular season stretch
Seven key games remain in the Texas Longhorns’ 2022-23 basketball season starting with a home contest versus West Virginia on Saturday. Texas, the No. 5 team in the country and led by interim head coach Rodney Terry, can win its first conference regular season crown since DJ Augustin, AJ Abrams, and Damion James led the Longhorns to the Big 12 title in 2008.
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Inside Texas’ basketball trio of Joe Cook, Gerry Hamilton, and Tim Preston offer their perspectives on the season and look ahead to what’s possible over the months of February and March.
Does Texas win its first Big 12 regular season title since 2008?
Joe Cook – I think they do, but it could be a shared title. Texas, Kansas, and Kansas State all have seven remaining games, while second-place Iowa State has eight including Wednesday night’s matchup in Morgantown, W.Va. versus West Virginia. Twelve wins could do it, 13 should, and in this league 14 will bring home the hardware. Texas has tough road trips remaining to Texas Tech, Baylor, and TCU, and difficult home contests versus West Virginia, Oklahoma, Iowa State, and Kansas. Twelve wins means they’re going 4-3 in that final stretch. They can do that simply by defending home court, which is a must in the conference and they’ve done that so far. I think if they defend the Mood and take one from TTU, Baylor, or TCU, Terry and the Horns will have a regular season title.
Gerry Hamilton – There will be a three-way tie at 12-6, and Texas will be one of those three.
Tim Preston – Twelve conference wins will probably be enough to win (share?) the conference title. Thirteen would almost for sure win it outright. I think Texas’ path to 12 is much more likely than a path to 13, so I’m going to say yes, but I’m guessing it will be a shared title.
Who is your team MVP?
Joe Cook – Marcus Carr, with Sir’Jabari Rice a close second. Carr isn’t just the leading scorer with 17.0 points per game (and a 16.5 ppg scoring average in conference play), he’s the offense’s catalyst and closer. He’s shooting a strong 45 percent from the field, including 56 percent from two-point range, and a needed 39 percent from three. He only has 1.8 turnovers per game this year in spite of his high usage, and that figure only balloons to 2.3 in conference games. Rice has been key in making plays off the bench, but without Carr this is an entirely different team.
Gerry Hamilton – Does it have to be a player? The player is Marcus Carr for his 20-pound weight loss and improved ability to be productive for 30 minutes a game this season. But to me, strength and conditioning coach John Reilly is the team MVP. Texas is a stronger and even better conditioned team this season. His work with the players when nobody is around was a huge difference maker this season, and his relationships with the team and players is undervalued with everything this group has gone through. He understands how to push the players better than anyone in the program in so many ways. What is not seen on the court is more important that what is seen on the court this season.
Tim Preston – Marcus Carr. I am a card carrying member of the Sir’Jabari Rice fan club, but it’s impossible to overlook what Carr has meant to this team this year. His consistency and production has been as solid at the guard spot for Texas as any player since J’Covan Brown (Carr has been better this year than Isaiah Taylor was his junior year). The exciting part is that Carr has proven that his production is repeatable. If you had told me prior to this season that the Horns would only go as far as Carr could lead them, I would have been pretty nervous about that. Now, it brings me some comfort.
What’s one stat that you believe defines the 2022-23 team?
Joe Cook – This one is going to be a little off-the-wall, but KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric, which measures possessions per 40 minutes adjusted for opponent. Last season, the Longhorns were No. 336 out of 358 in the metric at 63.8, and finished ahead of only four other power conference teams. It made sense for Texas to be slow last year, but the 2022-23 preseason brought reports that the Horns would push the pace more often thanks to the ball-handlers on the roster. That’s been the case, as Texas now is No. 77 in the metric this year with a mark of 69.2. Alabama, the national leader, is at 73.5 while TCU leads the Big 12 with 70.2. The strategy played into the roster’s hands and the results have been evident on the floor.
Gerry Hamilton – That would be the 16.1 assists per game. When Texas keeps the ball moving, that means the players are moving and Texas has the experience and ability to put the desired pressure on an opponent’s defense. When the ball stops, the wins stop. Texas has only had two guards that could pound the ball and win/close out games: T.J. Ford and D.J. Augustin. This team is not that. They have to pass, move and push pace as much as possible, and get to the free throw line, where they shoot 75 percent.
Tim Preston – -0.9 rebounding margin in conference. Texas is skilled and deep at every position, perhaps more so than any Longhorn team since 2009. But when your leading rebounder in league play is under five per game (Dillon Mitchell currently is the high water mark at 4.9), it means the entire team has to pick up that slack or risk getting decimated by second-chance points/opportunities. But Texas has been, essentially, even on the glass against the best conference opponents. If that can continue, the Longhorns’ depth and skill everywhere else can shine through.
What is the toughest remaining test for the Horns?
Joe Cook – The Texas Tech game on Monday following a Saturday slugfest with WVU does concern me, but I’m going to go with Iowa State. The middle game in the final seven contests will be crucial and Texas was pushed around last time out in Ames, Iowa.
Gerry Hamilton – At Baylor. With Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua back on the court, he provides the Bears with a much need paint presence and provides a better rotation for Beard head coach Scott Drew.
Tim Preston – While traveling to Baylor is the most obvious pick, I’ve been circling the game in Lubbock since the day Chris Beard left there in the first place a few years ago. First of all, Texas Tech is not a bad team. Second, the Red Raider teams seem to consistently adopt the same hatred of Texas that their fans employ. Lastly, if a trap game exists on the schedule, a game against a currently 1-9 cellar dweller likely fits the bill.
What’s one thing you want to see more of from Texas in the remaining games?
Joe Cook – Three-point shooting is the easy call. Texas is No. 246 in the country at 33 percent. Their field goal percentage, 48 percent, is good for No. 29 in the country. Bump shooting from distance into the top 200 (heck, maybe the top 220) and that’ll bode well.
Gerry Hamilton – Tyrese Hunter making more shots and being aggressive on the offensive end. But, he also has to get closer to 100 percent healthy for that. Even though he’s slightly less than 100 percent, he has to play better and more consistently. He will be the difference for this team in March if he delivers. Texas will be up and down defensively, so maximizing players offensively is going to be a must. Also, Dillon Mitchell must continue being more active and answer the bell physically. He came to Texas in a situation in which he wasn’t going to be a top four or five scoring option, and had to have action run for him on offense. That makes for a tough transition at times for a freshman with high expectations. Texas also doesn’t create enough weakside offensive rebounding opportunities for him either so his ability to make scoring plays without the ball are less than ideal. That means he has to play more physical than he’s accustomed to, in a physical league no less. Part of Texas maximizing the team will be Mitchell answering that bell.
Tim Preston – Improved three point shooting. They’ve been competent from deep this year, but this really feels like a season where Texas could win a national championship just because I don’t feel like there is any kind of abundance of other teams decidedly better than Texas. That can only happen if they find a way to get up to 35 or 36 percent. In Texas’ five losses this year, they’ve had three point shooting percentages of 31, 29, 23, 40, and 31 with the track meet loss to KSU as the only outlier. Texas is susceptible when they shoot poorly from deep.
What’s one aspect that should help the Longhorns in remaining games and the NCAA Tournament?
Joe Cook – Pace. Experienced squads that can force younger or less athletic teams to have to run and play out of control typically do well. Running into experience may stymie that, but Texas will be as experienced as they come in any field of 68 or quadrant of 16.
Gerry Hamilton – Experience, and a lot of it. Texas players that have played in NCAA Tournament Round of 32 games include Carr, Rice, Timmy Allen, Dylan Disu, and Brock Cunningham. Players that have appeared in the Sweet 16 are Hunter and Christian Bishop. This team is extremely battle tested, and have produced in high-intensity situations on the court.
Tim Preston – Guard play. When this team has needed quality looks at crucial points in the game, their guards have come through. I think that will continue. In fact, I still think there’s a clear other level that Tyrese Hunter can get to if we can find ways to get him more comfortable in attacking off the bounce into the rim. Backcourts usually control March, and I think Texas has a very effective one.
