Is Alabama really the favorite in 2022?
Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide are once again the favorites for the National Championship in 2022. The most basic level reasoning for this is that they really should have won it in 2021 but for the fact they lost their best cornerback and two NFL wide receivers to injury before the final game and were edged out by Georgia (whom they’d crushed a few weeks prior in the SEC Title Game)..and their two best players are back.
After being THIS close in 2021, they return Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young at quarterback and reload around him with a number of new blue chip recruits. Their best defensive player Will Anderson has another year and will be rushing ahead of a highly experienced and talented secondary. Meanwhile Georgia’s title team will be obliterated by the NFL draft and rebuilt from the next wave of Kirby Smart recruits. The Crimson Tide are the favorite in the SEC and consequently in the playoffs as well, right?
Well, maybe not.
Consider first of all the history of college football teams returning topflight quarterbacks in the 21st century. The occasions in which they won the National Championship are actually relatively rare.
Here’s the list of the quarterbacks who did win the title in the 21st century:
| Year | Winning quarterback | Returning star? | Year | Winning quarterback | Returning star? |
| 2001 | Ken Dorsey (Miami) | Yes | 2012 | AJ McCarron (Alabama) | Ish |
| 2002 | Craig Krenzel (tOSU) | No | 2013 | Jameis Winston (FSU) | No |
| 2003 | Matt Mauck (LSU) | No | 2014 | Cardale Jones (tOSU) | No |
| 2004 | Matt Leinart (USC) | Yes | 2015 | Jake Coker (Alabama) | No |
| 2005 | Vince Young (Texas) | Yes | 2016 | DeShaun Watson (Clemson) | Yes |
| 2006 | Chris Leak (Florida) | No | 2017 | Tua Tagavailoa (Alabama) | No |
| 2007 | Matt Flynn (LSU) | No | 2018 | Trevor Lawrence (Clemson) | No |
| 2008 | Tim Tebow (Florida) | Yes | 2019 | Joey Burrow (LSU) | No |
| 2009 | Greg McElroy (Alabama) | No | 2020 | Mac Jones (Alabama) | No |
| 2010 | Cam Newton (Auburn) | No | 2021 | Stetson Bennett (Georgia) | No |
| 2011 | AJ McCarron (Alabama) | No | 2022 | ??? | ??? |
You can quibble with my “returning star” designations if you like but I think it’s fair to say none of the guys with “no” in that column were being hyped before the season as Championship steersmen due to their previous year’s play. There are plenty of names on the list who are famous for their play as quarterbacks, but you’ll notice on inspection that they became famous DURING their championship seasons and not before.
Within this decade in particular, you see that top returning quarterbacks very rarely won the championship. Why? Well probably for the same reason Alabama didn’t win in 2021 despite having a top quarterback. They couldn’t field healthy, NFL-caliber wide receivers in the championship game. The exceptions to the rule are all dual-threats, who didn’t necessarily need the same sort of highly-skilled supporting cast. Anyways, Young isn’t a dual-threat in the same sense of a Vince Young, Deshaun Watson, Tim Tebow, etc.
As Stetson Bennett or most of the winning Alabama quarterbacks listed above can attest, having a field general at quarterback who can manage a game properly and distribute to star weapons is the primary prerequisite for a title.
Trevor Lawrence’s career makes the same point, he didn’t have healthy, overpowering receivers save for one year (his freshman season) and consequently only won one championship. To overpower opponents you need weapons to deploy.
Alabama’s situation in 2022 is a little more questionable on that front than it’s been in a few years.
Continuity on offense?
Every time Nick Saban whines in the offseason about some new facet of college football he doesn’t like, College Football Twitter interprets it as a warning made against other programs. This all stems from Nick Saban asking if tempo was good for the game or how we want the game to evolve?
Alabama was getting chewed up by HUNH (hurry-up, no-huddle) spread teams and Saban didn’t like it…so Alabama incorporated some RPO spread within their offense and began to blast defenses away with overwhelming talent, culminating in their 2020 season where they scored 48.5 points per game.
The main architects of this transition were ironically both former pro-style offensive coaches from the Pete Carroll dynasty at USC, Lane Kiffin and Steve Sarkisian. They also involved current Miami offensive coordinator Josh Gattis (OC at Michigan last year), current Maryland head coach Mike Locksley, and New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll (Buffalo Bills OC last year). Nick Saban’s ability to recruit and manage coaching talent has always been his greatest skill. In 2021 they transitioned to Bill O’Brien’s management, which yielded mixed results.
Bryce Young won the Heisman trophy and the Tide scored 39.9 points per game and the SEC Championship, which was all a step down from the year prior yet perhaps forgivable given how they lost their best skill weapons during the playoffs. They remained an RPO spread team but incorporated even more dropback, progression passing with O’Brien and Young than they had previously with Sarkisian. It may have raised their ceiling to pursue this strategy but it also lowered their floor.
Even in their loss to Texas A&M you could see hints of a brilliant, unstoppable offense which could keep coming at you in the passing game until you wore down, but they were inconsistent flashes. It wasn’t really all coming together until they blew out Georgia in the SEC Championship game, which made a title look like a guarantee if not for an injury to receiver John Metchie followed by a crippling blow when fellow wideout Jameson Wiliams was injured against Georgia.
Since then, here’s how things are looking for Alabama’s offense in terms of talent inflow and outflow.
Outgoing: RB Brian Robinson, WR Jameson Williams, WR John Metchie, WR Slade Bolden, WR Argiye Hall, TE Jahleel Billingsley, LT Evan Neal, RT Chris Owens.
Incoming: RB Jahmyr Gibbs, WR Jermaine Burton, LT Tyler Steen.
Alabama’s favorite five-man skill lineups all involved the names in the outgoing list with one exception, returning tight end Cameron Latu who played over Billingsley save for in obvious passing situations or situations where they needed more blocking at tight end. All of their playmakers are gone. Then there’s the loss of both offensive tackles, which is always a bit alarming given how hard it is to find good athletes who can move backwards at 6-foot-3+ and 300 pounds or more.
Argiye Hall has long been expected to be one of their next great wideouts but he’s clashed with Nick Saban and is now transferring out, perhaps to Texas to rejoin Billingsley.
The incoming talents are interesting as well. Alabama wasn’t in obvious need of a great running back, although Gibbs is certainly a fantastic talent. They already had Trey Sanders, Camar Wheaton (has since transferred), and Jase McClellan on the roster with Jamarion Miller enrolling early out of high school. Jermaine Burton is an explosive talent who didn’t have a major role with the vanquished Georgia Bulldogs and was consequently available, he might be the key to their season.
Tyler Steen is the really interesting addition. In the spring game, the Tide started the following two players at tackle:
Left tackle: Kendall Randolph, a 6-foot-4, 298 pound 6th-year senior who has previously made his name at Alabama as a jumbo tight end.
Right tackle: J.C. Latham, a 6-foot-6, 325 pound sophomore and former 5-star.
They also have former 5-stars Tommy Brockermeyer, Amari Kight, and Tyler Booker who are currently behind the two names listed above on the tackle depth chart. Now add in the following considerations:
- Neither Randolph nor Latham can block Will Anderson at all. This is no major sin, most tackles aren’t great against Anderson, but it’s a concerning data point for a position that already circumstantially appears to be an issue. Especially if you watch closely to see how they looked trying to block Anderson and others. Neither of these guys are All-SEC caliber tackles right now.
- Alabama had Kyle Flood coaching the O-line in 2020, Doug Marrone did it in 2021, and now Eric Wofford has the job. Flood was there in 2019-20, before that Brent Key had the job for three consecutive seasons and before him was Mario Cristobal for a three-year stretch. Turnover is normal but this is pretty significant to have three guys in three years overseeing the most development-intensive positions in football.
- Tyler Steen was available for a reason. Despite serving as a multi-year starter for Vanderbilt, he was never All-SEC and a review of his film does not reveal an athlete who’s going to be a star left tackle for a National Championship contender.
Alabama’s National Championship setup on offense was in 2021 (or 2020, obviously) when they had a high draft pick at left tackle, two NFL wide receivers, several experienced role players, and then the star quarterback. They’re going into 2022 without established star receivers or any particularly good offensive tackles.
Do they have raw talent? Yes.
Is there a chance that talent will emerge between now and before they’ve been eliminated from a title in 2022? Yes.
But is the fact none of this is close to known after spring a discouraging sign? Yes.
But can’t they just win with defense?
I think this is the bigger part of the equation in why Alabama is considered the frontrunner for the National Championship.
There’s still that Will Anderson guy, all those returning athletes in the defensive backfield, and Nick Saban himself directing it all. Can’t they just rely on good defense, perhaps run the ball with a still solid interior O-line and this Gibbs fellow, and then trust Bryce Young to carry them in some tight spots?
Absolutely they can, but it’s hard to win a title that way. I know everyone will say, “Georgia just did it!!!!” but the reason Georgia managed to win a title with defense, solid run game, and steady-ish quarterback play is because Alabama’s pro-style passing game (and pass defense) was taken out by injury.
The team in the playoffs in a given year who can execute a pro-style passing game (dropback, progression passing) with multiple NFL receivers is the very hardest team to beat. Georgia’s legendary 2021 defense COULD NOT stop it when Alabama had that sort of offensive machine rolling. It’s questionable whether Alabama’s 2022 defense will be able to either, although there’s an interesting wrinkle to consider there. If you’re not the team with a trump card in the form of a dominant passing attack, then you’re vulnerable to the team who does hold that card.
Alabama’s 2017 National Championship was the last time they had a truly great defense who carried them to the throne. In 2017 they rolled through several different inside linebackers due to injury but pulled out a title because they could play nickel and dime with Minkah Fitzpatrick moving inside to nickel or the “money” dime position, Rashaan Evans was lining up all over the field, and the D-line had big Raekwon Davis and Daron Payne protecting their athletes from blocks. The 2017 team notably avoided any particularly potent pro-style passing games (Clemson with Kelly Bryant and then Georgia with Jake Stromm) and still almost lost until Tua Tagovailoa saved the day.
The formula in 2022 would need to be a bit different. Their best chance would be to mimic the 2-4-5 approach Michigan used last season with Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo completely befuddling offensive line protection schemes on either edge. Will Anderson and Dallas Turner are probably two of the better players in the country and they need to play together at the same time next season whenever possible. No more 3-3-5 nickel, Pete Golding, come postseason time y’all need to be 4-down with those two on either edge and then some big guys inside and force teams to run you out of it.
Alabama’s hope in 2022 is probably not that they can field an overpowering offense behind returning Heisman Bryce Young. It’s that they can figure out how to make the most of their super powered pass-rush and experienced secondary to be the first major college defense to truly be able to stop a legitimate, pro-style passing game.
Does that sound like a particularly strong favorite? No.
Is Alabama much of a frontrunner in 2022? Discuss for free on the Flyover Football Board!
