Judging College Football Playoff contenders: Group 2 "maybe..."

On3 imageby:Ian Boyd08/19/21

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In part one of this series, I broke down teams who are being considered in some regard as potential College Football Playoff teams and questioned whether they had the space force personnel (left tackle, deep threat receiver, cornerback, edge rusher) to win a title. Remember it’s not about “good or bad” but “can you hang in the championship rounds?”

Our first group of teams consisted of squads I don’t believe to be playoff contenders due to their lack of athleticism in the space force. Today we’ll talk about teams who have a higher caliber of athlete or ceiling, but aren’t likely to be able to break through in the College Football Playoff for various reasons.

The USC Trojans

The Trojans are a fascinating test of many things I’ve written and argued over the years. They embraced a pass-heavy version of the Air Raid under Graham Harrell, they’re built partly through the portal, and their defensive coordinator is Todd Orlando.

In the space force, there are challenges. Let’s start at left tackle where reports have redshirt freshman Jonah Monheim. Monheim was a low 4-star recruit, which is never conclusive, but since we haven’t seen him play in a Trojan uniform it’s certainly a question mark for their status as a playoff contender.

Receiver would have been led by 6-foot-5 Drake London and former 5-star Bru McCoy, but the latter got into trouble and is no longer with the program. Memphis transfer Tajh Washington was a vertical threat in the AAC last year and is here, Gary Bryant was a highly touted recruit but hasn’t done anything either. Quarterback Kedon Slovis is basically an old vet at this point and Harrell knows what he’s doing on offense, but that’s a lot of young guys who are going to need to all put it together at the same time.

On defense they hired Todd Orlando, so I’m already extremely hesitant about their College Football Playoff contender status. Chris Steele is their top corner, a 4.62 40 guy who will get some tough assignments in their quarters defense. On the edges they have Nick Figueroa and Drake Jackson both back, they had 5.5 combined sacks last year for a coordinator who prefers the blitz over a traditional edge rush… I’m not buying the Trojans as a true playoff contender.

The Florida Gators

I like the Gators to be pretty good this season, but they aren’t built like a College Football Playoff team. Dan Mullen is transitioning them into a power-option squad, akin to the Tim Tebow Gators of old, with runner Emory Jones at quarterback. They won’t be aiming to beat people with the passing game like last year, it’ll be a different approach, but they’ll lose a little something in the exchange.

As for the space force, left tackle is Richard Gouraige, a 6-foot-4, 313 pound redshirt junior who started at left guard for them in 2020. Gouraige is a good player, he has athleticism to hold up on the edge and played there some in the bowl game where he looked promising. Given the limited extent to which this team is likely to rely on dropback passing, I think he’ll be an asset overall.

Wide receiver is starting over but there’s a fair amount of talent. Justin Shorter may take over the flex Kyle Pitts role with his own 6-foot-5, 227 pound frame while returning starter Jacob Copeland is due to get more work after catching 23 balls for 435 yards and three scores last year. They have speed, just no Kyle Trask to throw it to them.

Defensively the Gators are usually set here and have struggled at defensive tackle. They added some transfers to shore up the interior and have Georgia transfer Brenton Cox, Jeremiah Moon, and Zachary Carter back to man their end positions. Cornerback returns Kaiir Elam, who is one of the better cover corners in the country. Overall the Gators are in great shape as a roster, the question is how far a power-option offense can take them. Not through the playoffs, I don’t expect.

The Texas A&M Aggies

The Aggies truly have a very strong team heading into 2021, but it’s not really built from space force units. DeMarvin Leal, Jalen Wydermyer, Isaiah Spiller, Devon Achane, Ainias Smith, these are some immensely talented players and none of them are manning space force positions.

They do have Kenyon Green at tackle, who I expect to be about as good as anyone in the country, which is a good start. On the other hand, they seem to be playing him on the right side to accommodate Tennessee transfer Jahmir Johnson. It doesn’t necessarily matter, you can leave your right tackle on an island and help the guy on the left, but you don’t normally do so because the left side covers the “blindside” of a right-handed quarterback. The rest of the offensive line is totally rebuilt so pass protection is a concern, especially given the emphasis Jimbo Fisher will surely give to running the football.

Chase Lane and the other receivers could be much improved in 2021 and will have a lot of room to work in with the Aggie run game, Smith, and Wydermyer all threatening the middle of the field. How much will they emphasize them?

On defense, the pass-rush looks great. Michael Clemons and Tyree Johnson are back on the edges with Leal who can spin inside. Outside at corner they return Jaylon and Myles Jones, who are both big but have iffy recovery speed to play lockdown corner.

My suspicion is the Aggies will be among the better teams in the country but have a ceiling below “National Champion” because their emphasis will be in the trenches where it’s hard to find margin against other top caliber teams. Recall that Jimbo’s one championship occurred when he had NFL wide receivers spread out and Jameis Winston throwing it to them. When he’s had his druthers he’s preferred to run the ball more, but it’s harder to win a title that way.

The Ohio State Buckeyes

The Buckeyes have a few issues. I didn’t get any indicators they had a problem with Cole Stroud and I’m not sure if they intended or expected Quinn Ewers to graduate early and enroll in the fall so he could endorse a Kombucha company.

Now they’re in a pickle at quarterback with four guys who are second-year players or younger and were rated as 4-stars or higher by the recruiting services. How many of them will stick around in Columbus? Maybe just one. Which one does Ryan Day really want to stick around? Presumably the guy who gives them the best chance in 2021 (evidently Cole Stroud), but how do you even discern that when there are four mouths to feed?

At receiver and offensive tackle, the setup for whoever plays quarterback is phenomenal. Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson return and are both now outside with Jackson Smith-Njigba in the slot. Offensive tackle returns Thayer Munford and Nicholas Petit-Frere from last year’s playoff team. Loaded units.

Defense is messier. They were not strong at cornerback a year ago after losing both starters to the NFL. We start with Sevyn Banks, who figures to be their top cornerback yet was part of the shellacking taken from Alabama last year. Redshirt freshman Lathan Ransom may win the cover safety job, but wasn’t really known out of Arizona for his man coverage skill. Cameron Brown may start opposite Banks, he’s recovering from a busted Achilles. You get the vibe? The man coverage-heavy Buckeyes aren’t overflowing with NFL man coverage defenders right now like they were in 2019.

The defensive edges are in better shape, former 5-stars Tyreke Smith and Zach Harrison are there and both may be great. I’m just not believing this defense will put it together well enough to win playoff games. They rely heavily on playing man coverage with cornerback coach Kerry Coombs coordinating and I don’t know if they have the horses to be a College Football Playoff contender.

The Oklahoma Sooners

The big question looming over the Sooners is the eligibility of Tennessee transfer Wanya Morris. While I don’t think the Sooners will be bad at tackle without him, they’d sure be a lot better if he could be counted on to win the job on the blindside.

There are three other tackles on campus who’ve played. Tyrese Robinson, the third-year starter who played all but two games at right guard from 2019-20, he’s looked good at right tackle before. Erik Swenson, a big but limited player was the left tackle in 2019 and 2020 and benefitted from having Adrian Ealy (now gone) opposite. Finally Anton Harrison, a freakish athlete who’s expected to be an NFL player before long but is only in his second year.

So that’s one thing to watch for the potential Big 12 playoff contender.

The Sooners ability to beat teams deep starts with slot Marvin Mims, who was devastating inside last year, and may include Arkansas transfer Mike Woods.

It’s still not too late, but I wasn’t terribly impressed by their big trio in 2019 of Theo Wease, Trejan Bridges, and Jadon Haselwood. Haselwood has been hurt, perhaps 2021 is a breakout for him. Bridges is gone for non-football reasons. Wease I never found particularly impressive after watching current Buckeye receiver Garrett Wilson erase him as a cornerback in a State Championship Game. He’s yet to do much other than be a strong possession receiver for the Sooners.

Defense is lopsided. On the edges they have Nik Bonitto (eight sacks last year) and Isaiah Thomas (7.5 sacks) as part of a fast D-line. They’ll also bring 6-foot-4, 250 pound David Ugwoegbu off the edges. There’s a lot going on for the Sooners here.

Cornerback is a different story. I’m expecting to see D.J. Graham and Woodi Washington start, both of whom got action last season. I don’t know if either of these guys are island corners and am guessing they don’t lean on either to do so but instead blend a few different zone coverages and trust in their front. Should work well in the Big 12, but in the playoffs? Overall I don’t see sure signs of the overpowering athleticism you need to beat a Clemson, Alabama, or similar team. Certainly not to beat two such teams.

Our next group will feature the strongest College Football Playoff contenders.

Cover photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images

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