Las Vegas and the numbers-crunchers like Texas
“Stats are for losers” is a common refrain. Bill Belichick famously said it over a decade ago. Wayne Gretzky said it within the last week. That’s two literal GOATS in their respective fields downplaying the value of stat-keeping.
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I get why they say it, stats can obscure the larger goal of winning, but for fans and writers, stats can add useful context. Oh, and I’m willing to bet Belichick’s New England Patriots have a robust analytics department, just like the Houston Astros who are about to play in their sixth straight ALCS.
I find them useful, particularly in the modern stat era of adjusted analytics. If you were a fan of the Big 12 during the proliferation of the spread HUNH offense you likely realized traditional stat-keeping wasn’t going to tell you the story of what you were seeing. There wasn’t much value in tracking yards per game if teams in your conference were running 90-100 plays per game. You couldn’t make statistical comparisons to the SEC. The Big 12’s approach was roundly mocked (they don’t play defense!) before elements were roundly adopted by everybody but most of the Big Ten, Notre Dame, and Jimbo Fisher.
For Texas fans, adjusted stats for their favorite team this season are the angel on one shoulder. The devil being defense on money downs (On3+). Fans see a poor Cyclone offense carve up Texas on 3rd down and think Texas will get crushed in Stillwater this weekend.
The numbers-crunchers (and Vegas) see something different. They see a good team.
What is EPA?
The theory behind Expected Points Added (EPA) is simple. The statistic is used to try and define how many points a player or play is worth to a team.
Every play is considered with context in mind, meaning down distance and field position are used to evaluate the amount of EPA compared to the actual result of the play. These statistics can be added to create a cumulative EPA over the course of a time period or season, or it can be viewed by EPA/play.
EPA was originally brought to the public when The Hidden Game of Football was published in 1988 to provide a better look at how statistics were impacting football.
As you can see from the embedded Tweet, Texas is in both of the most desirable quadrants with teams like Georgia, Ohio State, and Alabama. You’ll also notice how good Iowa State’s defense is.
Stats do not tell the full story and the best summation of a season will always be wins and losses, but Texas is in the right statistical company and as the program matures, develops, and improves talent the wins and losses will follow. Essentially they are on the right path and these statistics are a good, leading indicator.
