One last regular season bracketology check
While plenty of low- and mid-majors are in the midst of their conference tournaments where it’s truly win or go home, the high major teams all have one regular season weekend remaining before their version of March Madness begins.
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Texas is vying for a spot on the two-line, and has a solid resume for the distinction with 30-of-31 regular season games in the rearview mirror. However, the results of Saturday’s 2022-23 regular season finale at the Moody Center versus the Big 12 champion Kansas Jayhawks loom large, as a win could tip the scales in Texas’ favor when the committee starts making tough decisions. Plus, Texas will have the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City as a way to add a couple more Quadrant 1 or 2 wins to the resume.
With one Quadrant 1 game remaining for the Longhorns, let’s assess what some of the top bracketology sources say about the Horns.
BracketMatrix.com
BracketMatrix.com uses 107 models that project the field of 68 to predict where a team will be slotted in the NCAA tournament with an average seeding.
Bracket Matrix had Texas as a two-seed, but the update was made prior to yesterday’s games. Of the 107 predictors, all but four had Texas on the two-line entering Wednesday. Those four exceptions had Texas as a three-seed.
ESPN
Joe Lunardi hasn’t updated his look since yesterday’s games, but he had Texas heading to Denver for the first and second round. The one-seed in the South (Louisville) regional was Alabama, the two-seed was Texas, the three-seed was Marquette, and the four-seed was Indiana.
KenPom
KenPom isn’t involved in bracketology but it’s still a very useful tool to see where the Longhorns compare in certain advanced statistical metrics to other teams around the country. Texas is No. 10 in KenPom’s rankings, second in the Big 12 behind No. 7 Kansas.
The Texas Longhorns’ 2022-23 schedule on KenPom:
195. UTEP
350. Houston Christian
9. Gonzaga
222. Northern Arizona
249. UT-RGV
14. Creighton
36. Illinois
320. Arkansas – Pine Bluff
189. Rice
92. Stanford
97. Louisiana
300. Texas A&M – Commerce
53. Oklahoma
18. Kansas State
44. Oklahoma State
21. TCU
50. Texas Tech
27. Iowa State
19. West Virginia
4. Tennessee
13. Baylor
7. Kansas
NET (Texas No. 10)
The Longhorns are No. 10 in NET, which is the NCAA’s primary sorting tool for evaluating teams.
According to the NCAA, “the NET includes more components than just winning percentage. It takes into account game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses.
“Using the quadrant system, which was in its fourth season in 2020-21, the quality of wins and losses will be organized based on game location and the opponent’s NET ranking.”
- Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
- Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
- Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
- Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-363
Quadrant 1 games
Record: 10-8
Wins: Gonzaga, Creighton, at Oklahoma, at Oklahoma St., TCU, at West Virginia, Baylor, Kansas St., West Virginia, Iowa St.
Losses: vs. Illinois, Kansas St., at Iowa St., at Tennessee, at Kansas, at Texas Tech, at Baylor, at TCU
All of Texas’ losses this year have been Quadrant 1 games. Kansas leads the nation with 15 Quadrant 1 wins. Baylor has 11 and Texas has 10 to round out the top three in that metric.
Quadrant 2 games
Record: 3-0
Wins: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma
Losses: N/A
Quadrant 3 games
Record: 2-0
Wins: vs. Stanford, Louisiana
Losses: N/A
Quadrant 4 games
Record: 7-0
Wins: UTEP, Houston Christian, vs. Northern Arizona, UT-Rio Grande Valley, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Rice, Texas A&M-Commerce
Losses: N/A
Only three teams in the top 25 of NET, Utah State, Kentucky, and TCU, have any Quadrant 4 losses.
