Peering through the Hubble: Week 3 matchups in the Big 12

On3 imageby:Ian Boyd09/17/21

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There are a number of big games in the Big 12 this week, at least on a relative scale. We have the Big 12 opener between the wide zone warriors in Waco and Lawrence, Oklahoma State takes on Boise State, K-State and West Virginia have real tests with Nevada and Virginia Tech, and then there’s the Nebraska vs Oklahoma game I touched on earlier this week.

I wanted to just give some scattershot notes on each and a little of what I’m seeing from these various teams, or expect to learn, as we approach Big 12 play.

Nebraska at OU (-22.5)

Big noon kickoff! This game is something of a no-win for Oklahoma. Nebraska opened the season with a bad loss to Illinois when everyone was watching and the nation has made up their minds that the Cornhuskers suck. If the Sooners blast them, it’ll be expected, if they struggle it’ll be a “uh oh, are the Sooners overrated?” moment. If Nebraska wins this game, it may help salvage Scott Frost’s standing but it’ll also deeply tarnish this Oklahoma season which already includes a near-disaster against Tulane.

Here’s what I’m actually watching for though.

No. 1: How will Nebraska gameplan the Oklahoma defense? I know what I’d do, prioritize stopping the pass with two-high coverage or a flyover defensive look and ask Lincoln Riley to either risk his running backs on a 30+ carry day or navigate underneath coverage with Spencer Rattler.

On this note, Marvin Mims took a ton of big hits against Tulane as did tight end Austin Stogner. Sometimes you think a big guy like Stogner can be a great possession receiver because he’s 6-foot-6, 250 or so and can absorb shots underneath. However, sometimes those big guys with a lot of surface area to hit have problems serving in such a role. There’s a reason Rob Gronkowski would wear armor after a few years in New England and his health would often help determine their playoff chances.

Stogner is tough, but I’ve seen him limp to the Sooner bench a number of times in his career, he missed some games last year, and he limped to the bench a time or two against Tulane.

Marvin Mims is the opposite. He’s small and working in the slot, mostly because he can do work there getting over the top, but if you play two-high and ask them to work their way down the field throwing sticks and slants he’s going to take some hits. Can he hold up in a season where he gets 100+ targets and much of it is underneath?

Stogner and Mims are on my list of “Big 12 players’ who’s health I’m closely monitoring from week to week.” We started this with Charlie Brewer back in 2019 where I posited early on that his ability to hold up may end up shaping the Baylor season.

This year the list includes these two inside receivers, Spencer Rattler, Spencer Sanders, and Max Duggan (so many shots and 19 carries against Cal!).

No. 2: Nebraska’s run game plan against an Oklahoma team sorting out their secondary and missing Woodi Washington. The Huskers still have some option in the playbook and they know how to hit the perimeter. Defending the wide perimeter has long been an issue for Alex Grinch’s Sooners because he’ll tend to play a man-cover corner on the hash.

Late against Tulane he slid strong safety Delarrin Turner-Yell down there at nickel, I wouldn’t be shocked if he did so again this week. Woodi Washington is an awesome Cover 2 cornerback though, both for his play in zone and his ability to arrive and tackle from zone coverage in the boundary flat. I think the Sooners’ perimeter run support from cornerback takes a big step back without him…something to monitor.

Virginia Tech at West Virginia (-2.5)

It appears Virginia Tech will be less dangerous on offense than Maryland. Rather than Tag Tagovailoa managing a smart RPO-spread, West Virginia will face Braxton the Burmeister. The former Oregon Duck is athletic enough to be mixed in to Justin Fuente’s option schemes.

I’m guessing West Virginia’s experienced safeties are going to clean up this run game, which gets by on having a cohesive line and dual-threat quarterback but little spacing or game-changing athleticism. What I’ll be curious to see is how the West Virginia offense performs. They have a more talented unit.

Nevada -2 at K-State

Vegas really doesn’t think much of a Skylar Thompson-less Wildcat team to make them home dogs against a Mountain West team.

Nevada is probably pretty good though. They took Cal to the wire and the Bears showed they aren’t so bad when they visited Gary Patterson’s Fort last week. Their quarterback Carson Strong is a big pocket passer out of California in his third year as the starter under head coach Jay Norvell. He threw for 8.0 ypa and over 300 yards against Cal, who know how to do the defensive thing.

I’m pretty high on the K-State pass defense this year with Julius Brents in the mix and Felix Anudike looking like a menace off the edge. If they can win this game with defense against a legitimate passing game, it should serve as some notice for the league.

Baylor -17.5 at Kansas

Three dangers here for Baylor.

  • Jason Bean is actually a really good athlete. Things can always get interesting when the quarterback has the ability to make some things happen, dude can throw also.
  • It’s easy to overlook the Jayhawks heading into Lawrence. It’s a crappy atmosphere, maybe they play well early, and your team keeps looking at the clock wanting to get it over with but you can’t quite pull away. Going in as big favorites when you haven’t actually done anything yet is rat poison.
  • Are we sure the Baylor offense is good? They’ve played well so far and shown some good things. The real test comes though when someone has a plan and the personnel to clog up the wide zone run game and Gerry Bohanon has to make them pay.

Tech vs FIU and Texas vs Rice

Not much to say here except watch for the following things.

  • Snap allocation between Casey Thompson and Hudson Card. Is Casey getting the start to help settle in Card, as a reward for playing hard late against Arkansas, or because Steve Sarkisian intends to pivot to the older quarterback? Snaps will tell some of the story here as well as the extent to which they run more spread sets for Thompson.
  • Does Texas get back to outside zone? The potential bedrock play for this O-line and run game?
  • I know next to nothing about FIU but Tyler Shough predetermined throws are something I’ll have an eye on after the SFA game.

Oklahoma State +3.5 at Boise State

Now things are getting real. Boise State hasn’t been able to run the ball but they have an experienced quarterback in Hank Bachmeier and a weapon for him to throw to in Khalil Shakir. Head coach Andy Avalos came back to Boise to find a lot of defensive veterans he’d already been recruiting and developing to run his system back when he was the defensive coordinator under Bryan Harsin.

The Broncos have a new offensive scheme after years and years of mixing power run game with play-action passing. The main change seems to be a much more aggressive use of RPOs and Bachmeier is very up for it. They’re not pounding and setting up Harsin’s timed shots, the quarterback has authority at the line to yank the ball from the running back and chuck it down the field and they’re moving with tempo. I’m definitely curious to see how Oklahoma State’s defense reacts.

Then I’m very curious to watch Spencer Sanders and the OSU offensive line against the Boise defensive front. I’m not confident in exactly how good the Boise front is, but I’m pretty sure it should prove a good test for OSU. Some may recall a few years back when Jim Knowles and Taylor “Corndog” Cornelius announced their arrival on the scene by beating down Boise State. Can they match that level of play?

Also interesting, Boise opened the season with a competitive game (loss) against future Big 12 program UCF.

Finally, Iowa State is favored by 31.5 against UNLV. Whatever on that game.

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