Inside Texas Roundtable: No. 24 Texas vs. No. 13 Kansas State

On3 imageby:Justin Wells11/04/22

The Inside Texas staff previews Saturday’s Texas-Kansas State matchup in Manhattan, Kan. Predictions, outcomes, and players to watch in the Inside Texas Roundtable.

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1. Kansas State is coming of its biggest win of 2022. How do the ‘Horns take down the No. 13 ’Cats in Manhattan?

Eric Nahlin – Early on, run the ball and complement it with chain moving passes rather than kill shots, unless the kill shots are on target (I get that Sark will still want to try and he should). If they run it well, Sark can catch their safeties slipping in run support. Get the ball to your most reliable targets. Make a concerted effort to get Jordan Whittington involved. On defense, all hats to the ball when Deuce Vaughn gets the carries. Take good angles. Play well situationally — the QB run will still be a problem even if Will Howard gets the start. 

Justin Wells – Finish them, Mortal Kombat style. The Horns would be 7-1, perhaps 8-0 if they finished in the fourth quarter. The bye week gave them and Quinn Ewers ample time to use what works and what doesn’t work. They have to move the chains on 2nd and 3rd down drives with Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson. The Texas defense matches up well with K-State, aside from Adrian Martinez‘ scramble ability.

Ian Boyd – Run the dang ball and cover up the Wildcats underneath on 3rd down. The Wildcats on the road are a great test of many of the issues which have plagued Texas all year, the Longhorns need to have made some strides in 2nd half O-line performance and 3rd down defense. If they have, they can win.

Joe Cook – Texas needs better play from Quinn Ewers. But as Steve Sarkisian mentioned Monday, he’s got to pound the rock. It’s what won him the Iowa State game and his decision to move away from it in Stillwater was a significant factor to the loss. That’ll help keep the Longhorn defense on the sidelines for longer stretches, because if they go above 80 plays defended again it may be a long night.

Paul Wadlington – Defensively, stop the run with their best personnel on the field and do a good job on levels 2 and 3 not blowing assignments. Offensively, efficiently move the chains in the passing game to allow the Horns to be stubborn running the ball on an undersized Wildcat front. They can be beaten down over time. 

Gerry Hamilton – Have to win in the run game, in a big way. Manage the game with the run game on offense. And then be very efficient in the intermediate passing game. Defensively, be the best tackling team on the field. Get Kansas State behind the chains enough to create a turnover or two I the passing game. 

Bobby Burton – Consistency on both sides of the ball, sprinkled in with a couple of big plays. That’s the only way the Horns beat the Wildcats. The Texas O can’t go long stretches without moving the ball and the Texas D can’t let K-State meticulously pick them apart.

2. Will Howard or Adrian Martinez, who gives K-State the best shot on Saturday?

Eric Nahlin – They have to start Will Howard, but I bet we see both, especially if UT starts to shut down the honest run game.

Justin Wells – Adrian Martinez. He’s deadly in the dual-threat department, particularly on third downs, which happens to be Texas’ Achilles heal.

Ian Boyd – Adrian Martinez is the bigger threat to hurt Texas’ 3rd down defense. Will Howard is a much easier target to triangulate against and won’t hurt you nearly so bad as a scrambler.

Joe Cook – I’ve flip-flopped on this all week but I think it’s Will Howard, though I have enough faith in Colin Klein (and the entire K-State program) that either can be effective enough to win.

Paul Wadlington – Will Howard. It will be interesting to see if he’s really turned a corner or will revert to his historical averages.

Gerry Hamilton – Against Texas this week, Will Howard. Howard is a more effective thrower of the ball vs. Martinez. They have more balance with Howard. Martinez is certainly the better player on the move and off schedule. 

Bobby Burton – Adrian Martinez. He can make big plays at a moment’s notice. Howard is more consistent but does less off schedule.

3. Despite an 0-2 road record, Texas has led in the second half in both games. What is the biggest 2nd half adjustment for Sark and staff?

Eric Nahlin – Each game will have its own quirks in the second half. Sark and PK need to adapt to whatever problems are presented and whether they can or not is probably a function of how they prepared and game planned for the week.

Justin Wells – The biggest need is bleeding the clock with a double-digit lead heading into the final stanza of games. The offense has to find room for Bijan and Roschon to move the chains. Sark and Ewers must also involve Jordan Whittington and Ja’Tavion Sanders this week.

Ian Boyd – Get big and run the dang ball.

Joe Cook – See Ian’s answer. Do it from heavy 12 with Andrej Karic or even 13 personnel. Xavier Worthy and Jordan Whittington can do well on their own in the pass game to where Texas should be able to let their blockers do the work.

Paul Wadlington – Offensively, Texas has to show some consistent base competencies beyond the initial script and get the receivers and Ewers on the same page. Defensively, Texas should do a better job of identifying opponent 3rd down staples and game planning around them. Personnel subs need to be more considered within game context. 

Gerry Hamilton – Manage the game better. Use a terrific run game to manage the game, on both sides of the ball essentially. And win the game physically on both sides of the ball. With a week off, Texas is the healthier team and should be able to physically play at a high level for the entire game. 

Bobby Burton – The defense has to take away the run and the opponents’ first go in the passing game. In both road losses this year, Texas has handled the rushing attack but failed to take away primary reads in the passing game.

4. Texas will beat Kansas State if______.

Eric Nahlin –  If they play complementary football and execute when K-State is on its heels. Turn a one-score game in to a two-score game. Turn a two-score game to a three-score game. They’ve had these opportunities repeatedly and haven’t been able to convert. They’ve left narrow windows for their opponents to crawl through. Shut the window on them.

Justin Wells – The offense gets back to what it’s good at; running the ball with Bijan and Roschon. They do that and convert a few third downs in the second half, and Texas has a legit shot vs the No. 13 CFP-ranked on the road Saturday night.

Ian Boyd – Bijan and Roschon combine to clear 175 rushing yards and the Longhorns finish drives in the red zone.

Joe Cook – K-State runs under 70 plays.

Paul Wadlington – Texas can run the ball effectively and get Kansas State off of the field on 3rd down. 

Gerry Hamilton – The defense creates a couple of turnovers, and the Longhorns running game sets up the intermediate passing game. Texas has to be very hard-headed in the run game. 

Bobby Burton –  Texas will need to come out the better on turnovers and possibly a special teams score. Texas also must establish a run game and not make Quinn Ewers throw it 50+ times.

5. Texas-Kansas State prediction/outcome:

Eric Nahlin – 34-31, Kansas State. “Hope I’m wrong.”

Justin Wells – Texas 34, Kansas State 31. UT finishes the Wildcats late in the fourth quarter of a night kickoff.

Ian Boyd – Texas 34-30. Things get interesting late like they did against Iowa State but Texas hangs on.

Joe Cook – Kansas State 28, Texas 24.

Paul Wadlington – Kansas State 30, Texas 27. Texas actually has some great matchups in this game, but the Horns are attracted to finding ways to lose on the road. I’m in prove it mode. 

Gerry Hamilton – Kansas State 38, Texas 24.

Bobby Burton – K-State 37 – Texas 20. Unless I’m just missing something here, the Wildcats have found an identity and are on a roll. Plus, the game it at home for them and at night so the crowd should be a positive factor for them. Texas, meanwhile, is searching for an identity on both sides of the ball. Unless the Horns can lean on running the ball on offense and get a turnover or two on defense, I think it’s going to be a long night.

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