Steve Sarkisian's second half stratagems

On3 imageby:Ian Boyd11/08/22

Ian_A_Boyd

The Texas victory over Kansas State was a big win for the program. To emerge victorious on the road against a strong team who was previously higher than the Longhorns in the Big 12 standings was perhaps the most meaningful victory yet for the Steve Sarkisian era. To do so while holding onto a second half lead helped to get a few monkeys off the program’s back.

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They’re now safe from being haunted for the rest of the year by Joey McGuire’s “I told you they’d break!” prophecy of doom over their second half leads and won’t have to enter into another offseason without having won a tough road game. Both of those are powerful accomplishments for the psyche of the team.

Yet they did let a 31-10 lead slip into a 34-27 victory and while they may have won a psychological battle, there are some tactical issues they’ve only partially overcome.

Second-half Sark play-calls

For years under Tom Herman, Texas had a tendency to build leads only to get extremely conservative and squander leads. How many games of the Herman era did Texas have to sweat outcomes because they got conservative in the second half?

The challenge of the Herman offense came from answering the question of how to carefully control games when opponents would load up to stuff the run and dare Texas to either keep scoring or risk quick 3’n’outs throwing into man coverage. The fairly limited array of Texas run schemes certainly complicated the matter.

For Sark, the program is similar but the dynamics and particulars are very different. This team has a few features the Herman squads didn’t. They can get into bigger personnel sets, playing with two tight ends perhaps including Andrej Karic as one of them, and they have more run game schemes. Consequently opposing teams might have to use eight or nine defenders in the box to successfully stymie everything Texas has going on. This team also has Bijan Robinson, Roschon Johnson, Kelvin Banks, and some other talents who’d have been ushered to the top of those Herman depth charts.

They also have a few issues Herman’s squads didn’t have to worry about. The current playbook can be a double-edged sword because of the relative youth and inexperience of this line and quarterback. It can be hard to execute concepts from the deeper pages of a playbook against all of the possible defensive answers you might face live.

Sam Ehlinger was cheat code for high leverage situations in a number of ways. Beyond his ability to carry the ball and solve for numbers problems if they needed him to, he could also diagnose defenses and ensure the offense wasn’t in a bad play. Quinn Ewers can not yet do either of those things, as Texas’ late 3rd down calls against K-State made pretty obvious.

You have to check out of a toss right here with the Edge outnumbered due to awaiting safeties.

Texas has advantages which can allow them to run the ball when they have to this season. There are big weapons in their arsenal. Like their “flex tight end” Jordan Whittington…

Or the fact Kelvin Banks is already one of the very best lineman in the conference as a true freshman.

Then obviously there’s the hard running of Johnson coupled with Robinson’s overall brilliance.

False start/procedural penalties have dinged Texas this season and made it harder to run clock and trample opponents in the second half with steady runs. More experience on the field across the line and particularly at quarterback would also make it easier to lean into matchups or avoid out-leveraged situations in situations like 3rd-and-2.

The good news for Texas is they get more experienced every week and are facing weaker defenses from here on out. Here are the defensive FEI rankings for their slate of Big 12 opponents (Texas is 15th):

  • Texas Tech: 23rd
  • West Virginia: 113th
  • Oklahoma: 52nd
  • Iowa State: 5th
  • Oklahoma State: 47th
  • Kansas State: 9th
  • TCU: 34th
  • Kansas: 92nd
  • Baylor: 33rd

The best flyover defenses (rush three, drop eight, three deep safeties) are in the rearview window for Texas and they won victories over both of them (Iowa State and Kansas State). There’s one more left in TCU, then a pair of 4-down defenses in Kansas and Baylor.

Covering the comeback

The other half of protecting a second half lead is the part where you don’t give up points. Offenses always get more aggressive and throw the ball more when trying to erase a deficit.

This can be a major advantage for a defense IF you can pressure the quarterback with your base pass rush and sit back in conservative coverages. An offense may score some against such a style but they’ll also turn it over or end up with some quick punts which expose them to clock-killing drives by your own offense. Unless you can’t get after their quarterback consistently.

All of Texas’ issues in holding onto leads with their defense start with their lack of pass rush. There are other problems for the unit but they are less significant than the fact their Edges are unable to dominate quarterbacks playing in one-dimensional offenses.

Texas’ interior pressures are generally good, either because Keondre Coburn and company are pushing the pocket or because DeMarvion Overshown or Jaylan Ford have hit an inside gap on a blitz. Part of the reason Texas is heavy on nickel and boundary corner blitzes is because they are among their best options for getting to the quarterback from the edge.

The first example above required Jaylan Ford to carry Deuce Vaughn vertically, but he let him clear through to the next level. The Wildcats would have more success with Vaughn routes before Texas started carrying him better to force tougher throws. Those running back routes take some real time to clear the second level though, time Kansas State found.

The second example features a late switch with the outside receiver becoming a vertical No. 2 target late after initially presenting as a hitch underneath a flag route. Cornerback Jamier Johnson thought this was a smash combination (corner route over a hitch) and was trying to stay deep to help deny the corner route but then Kade Warner ran a hitch and go up the seam and there was no one to pick him up while Johnson was too far off him to catch up once he realized what was up.

Well designed patterns will tend to catch Texas’ linebackers or back-up defensive backs. Ideally opponents wouldn’t be able to dial up misdirections and double moves while playing from behind because of pass rush. The Longhorns rarely get bailed out by good Edge pressure erasing a play before it can get going and are generally happy if push the pocket inside to prevent quarterbacks from being able to step into every throw.

Finding more pass-rush would be impactful but while Devin Richardson and Justice Finkley have offered Texas some good snaps, the team is probably a year away from having game-changing pressure from their Edges. For the rest of the year the Longhorns will have to play smart and studiously on defense to handle the remaining passing attacks, which include a pair of dangerous threats in TCU and Baylor in particular.

The team is getting better as the season progresses, but some of these issues won’t have easy answers until more talent is accumulated and developed.

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