Texas faces Alabama in Tuscaloosa for game 3 of SEC slate

The Longhorns’ difficult stretch of SEC games continues on Saturday when they face no. 13 Alabama on the road. Texas’ last result, a 14-point loss against the Tennessee Volunteers in Knoxville, did not inspire much confidence in this team’s ability to compete at a high level in road environments against more talented teams. Unfortunately, that’s what Saturday’s competition will be like.

An All-American and potential mid-lottery pick in sophomore lead guard Labaron Philon (21.3 points, 5.3 assists) commands the Alabama offense, a high-octane, analytics-driven system developed by head coach Nate Oats. The breakneck pace, emphasis on early shots, and proclivity for running in transition make the Tide one of the most exciting teams in the nation to watch, as well as one of the most difficult for opponents to guard given the amount of movement they have off of the ball.

Outside of Philon, the roster is littered with elite perimeter talent. Back court mate Aden Holloway (18.7 points) is another dynamic scoring option that can absolutely shoot the lights out (46.7% from 3). Guards Jalil Bethea (7.5 points), Latrell Wrightsell (10.8 points), and Houston Mallette (8.5 points, 4 rebounds) all provide punchy offense as well.

Combo forwards Amari Allen (11.6 points, 7.6 rebounds) and London Jemison (7.2 points, 3.3 rebounds) both provide versatility and NBA-level athleticism, supporting Oats’ vision of a team that gets up and down the floor quickly, and with purpose.

The bigs for Alabama are rim-running athletes as well; Taylor Bol Bowen (8.8 points, 5.3 rebounds) and Aiden Sherrell (8.7 points, 6 rebounds, 2.8 blocks) hold down the paint and serve as offensive rebounders, cutters, and occasional passers. Defensively, Sherrell is a fantastic rim protector and shot blocker. Top to bottom, Alabama likely has the most talented roster in the conference.

For reference, Sherrell (lower body injury) is listed as a game-time decision, while Wrightsell (groin) is doubtful for the Texas matchup.

Alabama offense

I gave a bit of a summary of what Nate Oats does on offense, but here is a more in-depth look at one of the most fascinating systems in all of college basketball. Heavily influenced by Mike D’Antoni and the “seven seconds or less” offenses developed in the mid 2000s, Oats wants his team to shoot within the first few seconds of an offensive possession, when shot efficiency is highest and when the opposing defense hasn’t settled in.

Alabama relies heavily on the three-point shot, as they rank first in the nation in attempts (36.9) and second in makes (12.9) from beyond the arc. Still, they don’t force attempts, preferring catch-and-shoot to off-the-dribble looks and pushing for shots from the corners. They are so effective at collapsing the opposing defense that open shots seemingly create themselves, which is where a slashing guard like Labaron Philon becomes so vital.

It’s compulsory to have several players that can make reads on the floor at the same time to create open looks from deep as well as create driving lanes. The term “unselfish” isn’t trite coach speak when talking about the Tide, as this attribute is foundational to how they operate. They avoid isolations for the most part and keep the ball moving around in the half court, forcing opposing defenses to stay in constant flux while utilizing several different kinds of screening actions.

When you combine the ultra-modern system with the elite talent this team possesses, it’s no wonder they are one of the best offenses in college basketball, currently ranked second in the country in offensive rating (128 points per 100 possessions).

Alabama defense

Though certainly known more for scoring than locking opponents down, Oats still emphasizes defense in his own way. Alabama plays the gaps in man coverage and will mix in hedges and switches against ball screens in order to disrupt the opposing offense. They are also physical, and rank in the top 10 in blocks per game (6.3). This is due mostly to the rim protection provided by Aiden Sherrell, who helps anchor a defense that is better than many assume.

Because of the pace of play, their defensive numbers are unimpressive on the surface. They let up 82.1 points per game, ranking them in the bottom 30 out of 368 teams, but if you look at the advanced numbers, they are not nearly as porous as their counting stats may indicate. They rank 67th overall in D-1 in adjusted defensive efficiency, giving up 102.2 points per 100 possessions. It’s not elite, but it’s not nearly as dire as a simple look at their “points per game” would imply.

Matchup with Texas

I prefaced the Tennessee matchup by saying it might be the worst possible matchup for Texas from an X’s-and-O’s standpoint. When I said that, I was referring more to Texas’ offense versus Tennessee’s defense. On the flip side, I think Alabama’s offense is built particularly to punish Sean Miller’s defensive philosophy.

Oats’ system is built around 5-out spacing, stretch bigs, and guards attacking the rim to kick out for threes. Miller’s defense relies heavily on help defense on the nail and in the gaps, which is something that the Tide beat regularly, as one step towards the lane for a Texas defender means an open three for the Tide.

Miller’s defense also emphasizes prevention of rim shots; while Alabama likes to get to the rim, they are fully comfortable with shooting as many threes as possible. Miller’s defense concedes threes in many instances as they sell out to protect the paint, which plays into Nate Oats’ favor.

Texas will also have trouble rotating to defend Alabama’s multiple shooters due to the way that the Tide cause scrambles defensively by shooting early. They force opponents to close out often, and when they do miss and manage to secure an offensive rebound, they attack opponents’ defenses before recovery is possible. They do well on the offensive glass, averaging 13.4 per game, which means 13-to-14 extra possessions per game against a scrambled defense.

All of this, plus the speed at which Alabama plays, makes them an extremely bad matchup for a Longhorns system that relies so much on help defense.

How does Texas hang?

Given the prior information, this doesn’t feel like a game the ‘Horns pull off. KenPom gives Alabama an 86% chance to win the game, with a projected score of 95-83. This feels about right, and even though Texas’ offense has struggled, they should score in the 80s due to the sheer number of possessions that will occur.

If Texas was to miraculously pull of what would be a truly shocking upset, it would require them to slow the game down and drag Alabama into a rock fight. If the game goes the Tide’s way in terms of pace, Texas does not have a prayer of keeping up with their athletes and shot makers.

Schematically, Texas would have to ditch the typical nail help that Miller employs, ask defenders to stay on the perimeter with Alabama’s shooters, and allow for some attempts at the rim to prevent the Tide from shooting the lights out from deep. Texas does have size in the paint, even if they don’t have classic “rim protectors,” so forcing players like Aden Holloway (6-foot-1) to attack the lane would be a sacrifice they’d have to make.

Another strategy Miller could employ would be to switch 1-through-4 to help prevent the easy drive-and-kick possessions for Alabama. Texas simply does not have the athletes otherwise, so switching freely is the only chance they have to help slow down this key component of the Crimson Tide’s offense.

The last important consideration is rebounding on defense; giving up an offensive rebound to Alabama will typically be a failed possession for this Texas team due to Nate Oats’ emphasis on second-chance points. This means not sending players to leak early in transition, which works twofold as it also helps slow down the pace.

Prediction

Even if they perform all of the above tasks perfectly, it’s not likely they are able to win this game. A competitive matchup to build some positive momentum would be a victory for Texas in Tuscaloosa on Saturday. I understand that isn’t fun to hear for a fan, but it’s the reality in which this team exists at the moment.

The line places Alabama as a 13.5-point favorite over Texas, with an over/under of 179.5. There’s a decent chance that the Tide cover this lofty number given what I’ve said so far. Overall, this is a tough game for a struggling Texas squad, and it will likely put them in a three-game hole to start SEC play.