Texas' five most difficult games of the 2023 season
Texas’ final schedule in the Big 12 looks about as manageable as one could reasonably hope for. While Texas is on a positive roster cycle, much of the competition is rebuilding significant portions of their roster.
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On paper Texas is clearly the most complete team heading into the season. Of course, games are played on grass or turf with a funny shaped ball and often fallible refereeing. That doesn’t mean Texas shouldn’t win the conference, but there’s the potential to drop a game or two it shouldn’t.
Here’s how I see the five toughest contests with my reasoning provided.
5. @Iowa State, November 18
Kings of the one-score loss in 2022, including a road loss to Texas that ended with a Cyclones fumble on what could have been the game winning drive. Matt Campbell will need to replace first-round draft pick Will McDonald and wide receiver Xavier Hutchinson, who was pretty much their entire offense in 2022.
So why is Iowa State on this list? Even in a down year filled with bad luck, they played Texas very close. This was a year after easily handling Texas in Ames by the score of 30-7. By this point in the season hopefully Texas is over its road woes, but we don’t know that as of now.
Steve Sarkisian has come a long way versus the “Flyover Defense,” and he has the personnel to make yet another step, but to this point it’s still the style of defense that gives him the most issue.
Also, this will be the fifth game in a row for Texas and will be the second game of a road back-to-back that starts with TCU. Finally, they could get caught looking ahead to Texas Tech, who they’ll have on a short week.
If there’s a “schedule” loss, this is probably it.
4. Kansas State, November 4
Part of Texas’ interesting November is the reigning Big 12 champions coming to Austin. Many focus on what K-State lost, and they did lose a lot (four players to the NFL), but they return a lot on offense, including quarterback Will Howard, all five offensive linemen, and receiver Phillip Brooks. They also added big play running back transfer Treshaun Ward from Florida State who will help mitigate the loss of Deuce Vaughn.
Fresh off his new $40 million contract, Chris Klieman has a tall order to replace key defensive losses at priority positions of Edge and cornerback, but he’s proven he can plug and play without too much drop off in the past. Still, he won’t be working with the same level of talent as Edge Felix Anudike-Uzomah, cornerback Julius Brents, and safety Josh Hayes. They also lost cornerback Ekow Boye-Doe who was signed as an UDFA by the Chiefs.
Defense is why Kansas State isn’t likely to repeat, but their offense and Klieman’s coaching gives the team a very high floor.
3. OU, October 7
Texas hammered OU in the Cotton Bowl but the Sooners program was in dire straits at the time and forced to start Davis Beville. That explains the 0, but the bigger concern is the 49 the defense gave up. OU seemed disinterested in the game from the second quarter on. I’d seen that in the Cotton Bowl before, but it had been a while and it was normally Texas. OU will be out for revenge, but, at least on paper, the Sooners will be out-gunned from a personnel standpoint. They’re replacing key offensive linemen, as well as an NFL tight end, running back, and a wide receiver who was their top target by a mile. All this while their defensive personnel is still transitioning from Alex Grinch’s scheme to Brent Venables’/Ted Roof’s.
Hopefully Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel is healthy for this one. If he isn’t this has the chance to be a replay of 2022.
If it wasn’t for the rivalry nature of this game, I’d have OU lower.
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2. Texas Tech, November 24
The week after playing what will likely be a spirited Iowa State team on the road, Texas has plucky Texas Tech at home. Joey McGuire does a great job of instilling confidence and self-belief in his team. Last year he placed big bets on them on money downs and his players rewarded him. Texas Tech didn’t lose much from last year’s 8-5 team that featured three overtime wins (U of H, Texas, and OU).
The timing in the schedule adds something extra as both teams could be playing to get into the Big 12 Championship. It’ll be interesting to see who Tech’s quarterback will be. Sophomore Behren Morton is quite talented and senior Tyler Shough is also talented, though often injured.
I’m predicting a wild night in DKR as these two teams play for the last time in the foreseeable future.
1. @Alabama, September 9
This promises to be another low scoring, high energy game. There’s a path for Texas to exact revenge after Alabama walked a very narrow path to victory in Austin last September. Texas should have the better quarterback play, which likely would have been enough to win it last year. Texas also has the type of experienced and physically mature team to hold up against the best ‘culture’ program in the country on the road. It’d be nice to see the Texas starter go the full game against Bama. Hell, Texas fans would take three quarters right now.
