Texas Football: Normalcy Bias & The Immutable Lie
Since 2010, Texas Football has lost 67 football games. Yeah, I know. This is the part of the offseason where I’m supposed to be plying you with cocktails of Burnt Orange Kool Aid spiked liberally with Everclear. We’ve got the best college site on the internet to rep and I have a preview to sell. Keep things rosy, right?
But stick with me…
In the 12 years prior to that, Texas lost 27 games.
Experiencing a 40 loss differential feels a lot different, doesn’t it?
And it certainly affects the attitudes and expectations of a fanbase. Including yours truly. In fact, in a world increasingly defined by a collective memory that lasts about a 48-72 hour news cycle, it’s difficult for some Texas fans to imagine anything but the constancy of disappointment and lowered expectations. They begin to believe — falsely — that we live in an immutable world. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Same ol’ Saturday. Rinse, wash, repeat. Nothing ever changes. Clint Black wrote a song about it.
We do not live in an immutable world. That’s an illusion. Normalcy bias is one of the most profound, insidious and widespread of the cognitives biases. As a student of history, I see it everywhere. There is no place it lives more than in sports and, of late, in the hearts and minds of Longhorn fans.
Let me offer an example. In fact, let’s move away from the Longhorns and remove some of the emotions.
Imagine a college football team going 32-29 over the last five years. Middling program, right? Those fans can rely on roughly .500 football. Win the ones you should, lose the ones you should, mix in an upset every now and again. A minor bowl game. That record is a factual lie. Aggregation obscuring a wild ride. One that gives normalcy bias a thorough wedgie.
This team compiled that 32-29 record as follows:
1-11
7-6
11-3
2-7
12-2
We’re awesome! We suck. We’re awesome! We suck. That team played for a conference title twice, won it once, finished dead last in the league once, finished 2nd to last in another, and then managed one year at exactly the kind of near .500 football normalcy bias might suggest. This team experienced between +/-5 to +/- 10(!) season win totals EVERY YEAR for five years.
This team plays football 100 miles up I-35 from Austin. Of course, it’s the Baylor Bears. In fact, if you expand the optic a bit, Baylor defies normalcy bias even more boldly. At the peak of Art Briles, from 2011-2015, Baylor went 50-15. A national football program. Before Arthur Ray Briles arrived in Waco, the Bears hadn’t had a winning season in 14 years.
How did Baylor reverse their fortunes? They hired the right head coach. Several times. Wait, that’s it? Certainly there is a more sophisticated and nuanced confluence of other factors? Recruiting, conference alignment shifts, power vacuums, new facility build outs, lady luck, the illuminati….
Nope. That’s it. They hired the right head coach. Everything else flowed from that.
Since 2008, Baylor has made three strong football coaching hires: Art Briles, Matt Rhule, Dave Aranda. Not many athletic departments go 3 for 3 on a major sport coaching hire. It’s impressive. Interestingly, each hire featured a period of initial struggle and then a massive leap.
What about Texas? How about their coaching hires? Since 2014? 0 for 2. Or if you’re feeling very, very charitable 0-1-1. Right now, Texas fans are confusing bad hires with the idea that nothing can ever change. If I was really feeling subversive, I’d point out that Texas is batting .200 on head football coaching hires since 1987, but that’s a post for another day. Thank God that Mack Brown was the home run that jacked up our slugging percentage.
Is there a learning point from this little exercise? There is. An optimistic one. One that should jolt you like a shot of Burnt Orange diesel. If Texas made the right hire in Steve Sarkisian, the disappointing “normalcy” of the last few years will end. And if Sark is the right hire, that big swing could happen sooner and more dramatically than the lie of normalcy bias suggests.
The 10th edition of the Thinking Texas Football season preview is here! It’s time to read the most informative, entertaining, and comprehensive Texas football preview on the planet. Find your copy of the Burnt Orange Bible.
Written for the discerning football fan who wants more than the typical preseason pablum, the 2022 Longhorn Football Prospectus is the Burnt Orange standard for Longhorn die-hards. You’ll find:
- Penetrating analysis of the Texas offense, defense, and special teams
- Thorough breakdowns of every individual player and every position group
- A comprehensive, detailed scouting report on every season opponent
- An exploration of the impact of NIL on Texas and college football
- A complete study of the 2022 Longhorn recruiting class, including a bonus feature from Eric Nahlin explaining how Texas landed the #1 recruit in 2023, Arch Manning
- Evaluation of the 2020 NFL draft by conference with a Texas historical analysis
- Special features
- Action-packed photos by ace photographer Will Gallagher
