The Big 12's coaching carousel

On3 imageby:Ian Boyd11/17/21

Ian_A_Boyd

Lots of fascinating developments around the league in terms of coaching. There have been two Big 12 jobs opened up, one of those vacancies has been filled, and there are likely to be more open after the season is over.

Let’s hop aboard the carousel and see where we may end up after the spinning stops.

Texas Tech

The Red Raiders already have their man in Joey McGuire, we’ll see how his staff comes together. It’s interesting now to observe how quickly Texas Tech moved to put this together. Obviously Jeff Traylor was plan A, when that didn’t work out their plan B closely mirrored the plan A.

They signed a coach who came up the in state high school ranks, connects well with players and Texas HS coaches, and appears to be most likely to help them rebuild their roster by actually recruiting Texas high schools rather than building through the transfer portal as Matt Wells tried to do.

Having a good plan to recruit the state and build out the roster with traditional recruiting was a good idea, whether or not they can actually beat out their Big 12 competitors for their top Metroplex prospects remains to be seen.

TCU

All quiet on the Western front thus far. There’s been some questions about potentially hiring Billy Napier, but given the jobs which have come open and are likely to come open in the following months, this seems like a long shot. Sonny Dykes has always been the favorite but SMU opened the vaults amidst the rumors and have offered him a lucrative deal.

If the Frogs can’t get Napier or Dykes (they’re not getting Matt Campbell) then things start to get hazy for the Frogs. Go back to Traylor and pay to buy him out of his UTSA extension? Look elsewhere?

Technically Justin Fuente is now available if they wanted to bring back their Rose Bowl coordinator. He’s probably undervalued at this point after several years of struggling in Blacksburg, VA. Fuente’s knack for finding and maximizing quarterbacks would be appreciated in TCU after several years of Gary Patterson-lead teams with poor quarterback play.

Texas

The Longhorns aren’t moving off Steve Sarkisian after just one year, instead they’ll ramp up the efforts to rebuild the program heading into a likely final year within the Big 12.

It does seem likely we could see some assistant turnover, although how Sark would distribute the blame for their defensive struggles and what he sees as the solutions are anyone’s guess. Does he think expensive defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski is failing? Just needs more time and players? Or needs different adjuncts in the defensive staff room? It’ll be interesting to see that play out.

Iowa State

It was notable when Matt Campbell didn’t seem to object to reports getting out of him being interested in the Iowa State job. I’ve maintained the very public nature of it all suggests above all else that both sides were using each other for leverage and publicity in pursuit of other options.

Might Matt Campbell pursue another option though? This season hasn’t gone as well as hoped in Ames and next season will surely see the Cyclones take a step back if/when Brock “pump fake” Purdy, Will McDonald, Breece Hall, Charlie Kolar, Greg Eisworth, Eyioma Uwazurike, and Mike Rose all leave for the NFL.

If he intends to get out this would be the time, otherwise it may be a while before he can position himself for another big opportunity. Will the right opportunity even come available though? His name is now getting attached to Washington, which is quietly a very good job and who just jettisoned Jimmy Lake, who immediately becomes a person of interest in any potential Texas staff shakeups due to his long working relationship with Pete Kwiatkowski.

Baylor

The Bears’ great success this season is going to have them sweating out Dave Aranda retention. Currently LSU and USC are both open, each of which have ties to Aranda, a Californian who started in this profession out West and was a defensive coordinator over multiple seasons for LSU, including for their 2019 title.

Personally I think this looks really grim for the Bears. LSU and USC are phenomenal jobs and if Aranda was to finish no. 1 for either job, it’s hard to see him passing on the opportunity in order to stay in Waco.

He knows very well what it’s like to coach at LSU and how to win a title in Baton Rouge. USC is also a job that would suit his background in recruiting the West Coast (back in the day) and building a defense. If he can assemble a winning offensive line and defensive line in Waco, he could certainly do so in Los Angeles with the Trojan’s resources and recruiting base.

Baylor’s hope has to be that both jobs would find more attractive options than the demur though brilliant defensive coach.

Oklahoma 

Norman continues to deal with “Lincoln Riley to LSU???” rumors. Riley’s non-denial at his press conference yesterday didn’t do anything but issue smoke signals. Oklahoma fans can flame away but LSU is a better job than Oklahoma if your goal is to win a National Championship. The Tigers have done it three times this century with three different coaches, twice at Oklahoma’s expense, and always while fighting for postseason access in the game’s toughest division (SEC West).

Oklahoma’s commitment to their football program can’t be beat, but LSU can match it in a state with an awful lot more football talent than Sooner-land can offer. It’s virtually a given you’ll have multiple NFL pass-rushers, defensive backs, and receivers on the roster in a given year. If the head coach can bring in a good quarterback to make the most of it all, he’s cooking with gas.

It’s a horrifying scenario for Oklahoma, who’d then have to jump into the silly season months behind LSU and USC, and most of their writers seem to dismiss it as being potentially likely. However, Jimbo has given a much more forceful denial of his opportunity to head to Baton Rouge and Mel Tucker seems to have secured a bag to keep him in Lansing, MI.

Who does that leave for LSU? Lincoln Riley, Dave Aranda, and maybe Billy Napier. One way or another, the LSU opening is likely to have pretty big ramifications for the Big 12.

Who will end up where? Discuss for free on the Flyover Football board!

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