The two sides of the Arch Manning debate, one of them is dumb
There is a lot of talk about, “just how good is Arch Manning” and “if his name was something ridiculous like Dan Marino would he still be good?”
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I probably talked to 100 people about Arch Manning throughout the course of his recruitment. I must admit, when I first heard about him, my hype-detector was turned to 11. Then I saw one clip of him throwing on the move as a freshman and thought, wait a minute, this is a legit prospect.
There’s a popular refrain where Manning is overrated because of his last name. It’s so edgy! Personally, I encourage contrarian takes as long as things are kept in perspective. That doesn’t mean I agree with them, I just realize there is a lot of play in the joints when it comes to evaluation, plus I know college evaluators who view him as a high four-star rather than the second third fourth coming. We’ll start there from my guy who gave us incomparable background on the recruitment moments after the announcement.
I initially asked how fast he processes since that’s one of the mental traits that would distinguish him as a five-star. “He processes fast enough (though he plays poor comp) and his hands are as fast as I’ve seen. I just don’t think he’s elite in other areas. Arm is good not great, he’s accurate but he’s not a sniper, he’s tough as ****, above average athlete but not a dual threat by any means. He’s a very good player but [redacted 2024 quarterback] is better.”
You know, when you see the polo, belt, and khaki shorts, you don’t expect to hear “he’s tough as s***“ but it should be implied due to the fact great quarterbacks can’t be soft. So, that important pocket trait is checked off.
The release is something else. You want it fast and you want it replicable even when off platform. Arch checks that box as well, and the patented Manning wobbler fade is every bit a part of his 23 and Me as his last name.
Sports start with your feet. Boxing, basketball, tennis, it doesn’t matter, it starts with your feet. His footwork — the foundation of mechanics — is exactly what you’d expect given his hardwiring.
But did you hear he skipped Elite 11??? Who cares? The family knows the necessary steps to take to win at the highest level. Arch skipping the Elite 11 is an indictment of the competition, not him or the family.
In my opinion arm strength is overrated. A necessary baseline must be met and after that it’s gravy. Of course, the weaker your arm the more you need compensatory traits, namely anticipation. You can win games with your brain, Uncle Omaha being exhibit A.
Arm talent is different. If Quinn Ewers is an A+, Arch is a B. Southern Cal commit, Malachi Nelson, is a ‘A‘ when it comes to arm strength. I’ve seen him live and it’s a howitzer but I don’t know him well enough to talk about arm talent. What’s the difference? Ryan Mallett had a strong arm, Patrick Mahomes has arm talent. Arm talent is the ability to get it there, wherever it is, even when off platform. It’s making throws in situations that aren’t replicable at Elite 11.
Arch does have arm talent, but his arm strength is not great. There’s no two ways about his average arm, but given the quickness of release, I think with improved lower body strength the arm strength will follow. I don’t know science well enough to understand how, at 6-foot-4, 225 pounds, his arm action can be that fast and efficient yet his arm strength is just okay. Strength could be the variable to improve that. We know there isn’t a ton of room for improvement with mechanics.
Arm strength is the most justifiable knock on him but neither of his Hall of Fame uncles had a strong arm. Arch plays to type, and playing to type isn’t his last name, it’s genetics.
The above source had a follow up. His previous quote was given before Arch’s commitment. This quote is from this morning.
“’If he’s not a Manning, he’d be a decent 4 star.‘ Here’s the thing, though – and even if he would be a 2 or 3 star (laughable), it doesn’t matter… because the Manning thing IS part of the evaluation. He has the best training, the best pedigree, the best knowledge and guidance, the best genetics. His brain and body are that of a Manning, it matters. That lineage comes with elite intangibles that don’t exist elsewhere. It’s all part of the larger equation.”
Exactly this. Genetics in sports matter. Go compare Vladdy Guererro’s swing to his father’s. It’s uncanny. Arch’s footwork and passing mechanics look like his uncles’. Who’s betting against that?
Not Inside Texas. Not On3.
