Thoughts on the new 12-team College Football Playoff
After decades of letting the fourth estate determine the winners of the mythical national championship, college football power brokers attempted in the 1990s to let the results on the field truly determine who earned the right to be the No. 1 team in the land. First came the Bowl Coalition, then the Bowl Alliance, then the Bowl Championship Series.
[Get a FREE 7-day trial of Inside Texas Plus!]
All had good intentions, but all had their flaws. Each system maintained the importance of the greatest regular season in sports, with only one two-loss team ever appearing in a national championship game. But there were aspects of the BCS, which lasted the longest of the three, that left many college football fans and media members wanting more teams to have a chance at taking home the mythical crown.
The sport arrived at the four-team College Football Playoff beginning in the 2014 season. Not even 10 years later, four teams apparently isn’t enough. The CFP Board of Managers announced Thursday the CFP would expand from four teams to 12 beginning in 2024.
The particulars of the decision offer several never-before-considered details, at least not at the FBS level. Home playoff games? A tournament that’s open to more than just “the same old teams?” The Board of Managers took a bold step on Thursday, of that there’s no doubt.
But is it the right decision? I have a few thoughts on the subject.
The potential for a three-loss national champion exists
The regular season in college football has always been considered the one with the highest stakes. Since the sport’s birth on November 6, 1869 in New Brunswick, N.J. in a game between Rutgers and Princeton the list of teams, perfection or near-perfection has been a consistent mark of a champion. The list of teams since 1950 to win a consensus national championship with more than one loss is as follows: 1960 Minnesota and 2007 LSU.
Considering there is unlikely to be much movement outside of the top six of the most recent CFP rankings, which by the way from No. 6 to No. 1 goes Alabama, Ohio State, USC, TCU, Michigan, and Georgia, here’s a list of a few of the two-or-more-loss teams that would be in legitimate contention for a national championship opportunity this year: Alabama (10-2), Tennessee (10-2), Penn State (10-2), Clemson (10-2), Kansas State (9-3), Utah (9-3), Washington (10-2), Florida State (9-3), LSU (9-3), Oregon State (9-3), Oregon (9-3), and UCLA (9-3).
The specific format would not mean all of those teams would find their way into the field of 12. Nor is that to say that those teams are shoddy products. They’re good. They all have won nine or more games. Are they elite? Their regular season says no.
There’s nothing wrong with opening up the opportunity to more teams and providing for more “meaningful football” in December, but let’s not gloss over the fact that, for instance, Texas could 1) lose the Red River Shootout 2) potentially lose or not even make the Big 12/SEC Championship and 3) still make the field of 12 in coming years.
For me, that makes what was originally the most meaningful regular season available to enjoy still enjoyable but verifiably less meaningful. It does provide more volume of games, which in addition to access, will be interesting to track on if it results in good things for the sport.
Just no 16-team playoff, please.
Since we’re doing it, home playoff games are an excellent decision
Remember how awesome Texas’ game with Alabama was? The end result didn’t go the Longhorns’ way, but even an 11 a.m. start time in the Central Texas heat couldn’t put a damper on the tremendous environment. The largest crowd in Darrell K Royal – Texas Memorial Stadium history was packed shoulder to shoulder to watch the Crimson Tide tussle with the Longhorns.
That was the first true Alabama non-conference road game since they traveled to Happy Valley to face Penn State in 2011.
If the experience live or the experience watching Fox at home didn’t illustrate why home games are better than contests played in NFL stadiums, let Will Anderson’s words tell the tale.
Placing quarterfinal, semifinal, and championship games at NFL sites does make sense. After all, money is what drives a lot of these decisions. It’s good to see that some sense of reverence for what made college football so popular in the first place — on-campus entertainment — will continue in the novel playoff system.
Even last year’s playoff, if strictly going by how the final 12 ended up, would have featured some excellent matchups. Oklahoma State would have traveled to Oxford, Miss. to face Ole Miss. Utah would have gone to Columbus, Ohio to face Ohio State at Ohio Stadium in mid-December in a game that would have tugged at Urban Meyer’s heartstrings.
The potential for a Big 10 team to have to head to, let’s say, Baton Rouge, La. in December is tantalizing. So too is the chance for, okay, Texas to travel to Ann Arbor, Mich. to stop by Ian Boyd’s house before going to the Big House to face the Wolverines.
These potential matchups are the most fascinating aspects of the new format, and it should set up for exciting inter-regional matchups
What about the Texas Longhorns?
Where does Texas really fit into all of this? The better question may be, at least when looking at recent years, do they have a place in this at all?
Optimism surrounds Steve Sarkisian’s football program, and rightfully so. Plus, the 8-4 Longhorns, one game out of making the Big 12 title game, are currently No. 20 in the CFP rankings.
Texas hasn’t been in the CFP conversation too often. Even when the program was at it’s most recent uptick in 2018, Texas only made it as high as No. 14 in the rankings.
For however long Texas is in the Big 12, let’s say 2023 is the last season for UT in the Big 12, it should be a contender not only for the Big 12 title game, but also for a spot in the final 12.
Now as far as the future in the SEC? Some of it depends on how the Longhorns fare in their new conference, but it also depends on their overall record. Texas might consider looking for ways to boost its final win total.
In recent years under athletic directors Mike Perrin and Chris Del Conte, Texas has made a point to schedule some of college football’s biggest names in non-conference matchups. Most of these contests were made in order to bring an exciting, name brand opponent to DKR in light of the OU game taking place in Dallas and Texas A&M’s departure for the SEC.
Matchups with USC, LSU, Michigan, and Ohio State have been scheduled or are currently scheduled in the coming decade. So too is the return matchup at Alabama, plus home-and-homes with Georgia and Florida.
Those games with the Dawgs and the Gators will probably come off the schedule once Texas completes its move. What about the trips to Ann Arbor and Columbus?
The honest truth about Texas’ move to the SEC is that it will likely make it so the Longhorns no longer need those types of premier matchups nor corresponding wins in those matchups in order to compete for a spot in the final 12. It also won’t need those matchups to draw fans to Austin.
Now, LSU and Texas A&M and any number of SEC teams will make yearly treks to DKR. Those teams will draw… and travel.
Success against those teams will determine if the Longhorns make the playoff field. And if this year’s rankings are any indication — No. 1 Georgia, No. 6 Alabama, No. 7 Tennessee, and No. 14 LSU — reasonable success in the SEC will put the Longhorns in a position to play for it all.
