Three dark horse challengers in the Big 12

On3 imageby:Ian Boyd05/04/23

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With spring practices concluded, it’s a good time to summarize where Texas is relative to the rest of the Big 12. Big 12 prognostications in general by the media and even Vegas are, in a word, terrible. Every year it’s a struggle for the following reasons.

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  • The league has tremendous parity among the non-Texas/Oklahoma programs in terms of resources, recruiting, and coaching acumen.
  • Texas has been consistently hard to gauge due to their program turnover and malaise and now Oklahoma has joined that club.

Last year the media picked Baylor as preseason No. 1 even though they’d lost five players to the NFL Draft who made nearly all of the plays for their championship efforts. Oklahoma was placed second and Oklahoma State only narrowly in third after finishing the previous year as the runner-ups. All three had losing records in Big 12 play. Big 12 title game participants Kansas Stat and TCU were picked 5th and 7th respectively.

The 2021 poll had Oklahoma at the top followed by 2020 runner-up Iowa State, but the latter fell off in a big way despite returning nearly all of their key players from the 2020 season. In 2020 the media paired Oklahoma at the top with Oklahoma State, actual runner-up Iowa State was picked fourth. The boom/bust cycles inherent to a league of parity make it very hard to gauge which team will emerge in a given year. Here are three teams which currently strike me as being the best dark horse contenders for the Big 12 title aside from presumptive favorite Texas. All three are on Texas’ schedule.

Texas Tech

The Red Raiders check an awful lot of boxes in year two under Joey McGuire. Quarterback Tyler Shough was once an overrated player due to size, overall athleticism, and a big arm which had draftniks projecting him as a potential early round pick. After two years of injuries and interceptions in Lubbock, he’s gained weight (up to 230 pounds now) and added the sort of irreplaceable experience which comes via trial and error. Tech will surround him with experienced O-linemen, return all three top receivers, and add FCS transfer Drae McCray who caught 12 balls for 92 yards on Alabama last year with Austin Peay.

This unit will score points in bunches again and have a tremendous amount of overall veteran experience. The defense made remarkable strides in year one under McGuire and although they lost No. 6 overall pick Tyree Wilson, they’ve very quickly built up some depth across the D-line and bring back three starters in the secondary while adding a fourth via transfer.

Veteran passing attacks and passing defenses win college games, much like how veteran guards win college basketball games. The intensity of the decision-making and impact of perimeter playmaking simply overrides most other factors. Texas Tech has a blend of experience and playmaking on both sides that will be hard to beat.

Iowa State

Iowa State? Surely not. They won all of one game in the Big 12 last season!

Factual, but they also played in six one-score games in the Big 12 and lost all of them. That’s extraordinary and at least partially summed up as bad luck. They averaged 20.2 ppg on offense, 20.2 ppg on defense and broke 20 points in league games on offense only three times.

If they could score some points and still play defense, they become a pretty good team again. How likely is this after losing 1st round Edge Will McDonald and 6th round pick Xavier Hutchinson, who was essentially the entire offense with 107 catches for 1,171 yards and six touchdowns?

Defensively it’s a fool’s errand to doubt Iowa State, who keeps stacking successful seasons. Four out of five starters return in the secondary and I don’t bet against them developing players up front.

Offensively they’ve lacked explosiveness or a particularly good O-line for years and Matt Campbell decided to make some adjustments. He hired Northern Iowa O-line coach Ryan Clanton and promoted top assistant Nate Scheelhaase to offensive coordinator. The roster will hope to benefit from adding Eastern Kentucky standout Jayden Higgins to a passing game already returning quarterback Hunter Dekkers, all the tight ends and receivers aside from Hutch, and three different tackles with starting experience.

A year ago their biggest problem was finishing drives with points. The team was 129th nationally in red zone conversions at 67.5%, a disastrous number for a defensive team who kept them in nearly every game and a far cry from their 95.65% rate in 2021. Ultimately their chances come down to rebuilding the run game with the new line coach and a healthy Jirehl Brock (former blue chip) and Stanford transfer Arlen Harris at running back.

No one expects Iowa State to do anything, which is when you have to watch out.

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BYU

Until recently, I’ve been pretty down on BYU’s chances in year one in the Big 12. Losing your quarterback, top receivers, and converting to a 4-down/single high defense aren’t the best ways to open up against the Big 12 conference from Provo.

A deeper look begins to tell a different story though. For one, the experience and skill level in the BYU passing game is considerable. Former 5-star recruit Kingsley Suamataia took over right tackle a year ago and now slides over to left tackle after a strong redshirt freshman year, Oklahoma State’s starting left tackle in 2022 (Caleb Etienne) transferred in to take the right tackle job. Receivers Keanu Hill, Kody Epps, and Chase Roberts were all pretty solid last year and all return. Throwing the ball is journeyman Kedon Slovis, who may not have wowed in his last few seasons but is in his fifth consecutive year as a starting college quarterback.

Defensively, I’ve investigated and found their prospects a shade better than I initially expected as well. New defensive coordinator Jay Hill is a very matchup conscious coach who brings one of his top chess pieces, cornerback Eddie Heckard, from Weber State and inherits a surprisingly solid group at BYU. Between the transfer portal and COVID exemptions, the Cougars will have four returning starters for the secondary and will routinely play a nickel corner to avoid overexposure for the safeties.

In their spring game they showed a promising command of his single-high coverages and their level of athleticism at cornerback is actually sufficient.

A veteran BYU team with the Provo home field advantage is a very tough team.

Texas is well positioned to play these teams because of their depth at cornerback and firepower at receiver, but those combinations are going to make for tough outs against the rest of the Big 12.

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