Three things to watch against Baylor
The 2022 season was going to be the first time in a while the Bears followed up a “boom” year in their typical boom/bust cycle with the same coaching staff.
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Their last winning season and Big 12 title was followed by Matt Rhule cashing in while he could for an ultra-lucrative contract from the Carolina Panthers and the subsequent hire of Dave Aranda. Year one for Aranda was tough, as it had been for Rhule.
The hope in Waco was that they’d maintain a trajectory near the top of the Big 12 due to the return of four starters on the O-line, four starters on the D-line, and a fully retained coaching staff. Instead they’ve endured a normal bust cycle while struggling to replace all of the veteran skill players on offense and in the secondary who’d made the winning plays for them in 2021.
Texas’ contest with Baylor, in addition to holding a bit of intrigue for the Big 12 Championship race should Kansas State lose Saturday, is interesting in light of the specific matchups. For all their issues, the Bears are imposing in the trenches where Texas is accustomed to enjoying an advantage and Aranda vs Steve Sarkisian is a compelling battle even if neither have the most trustworthy charges executing their designs.
The Bear’s RVO system
Jeff Grimes’ offense at Baylor is branded as the RVO rather than RPO system. RVO? What’s that? Some fancy new offensive trick?
No. It stands for Reliably Violent Offense. Just a little marketing gimmick for recruiting really, although they’ve lived up to their standard and run the ball well every single week.
The Bears’ offensive system is basically a college version of the Sean McVay or Kyle Shanahan wide zone system. The strength of their unit comes from getting legit blockers on the field at tight end and fullback, the quality of their personnel at tackle and center, and then the incorporation of play-action. Another quirk Texas fans probably noticed a year ago is their willingness to go for it routinely on 4th down.
Their run game is so good at reliably picking up gains they can call a run on 3rd-and-7, pick up 4-5 yards, then go for it again on 4th-and-3 or so. When they have to pick up short-yardage they bring in star Mike linebacker Dillon Doyle at fullback and usually run midzone weak with Doyle leading into the open gap or releasing into the flat on play-action. It’s extremely difficult to stop.
Stopping the Baylor run game and system is a multi-step process. First you have to set a hard edge to prevent the lateral stretch wide zone is designed to generate. This is difficult now big right tackle Khalil Keith has returned from injury to play opposite likely All-Big 12 left tackle Connor Galvin. Next you can’t get reached by center Jacob Gall, a Buffalo transfer who joined the program a year ago and makes their combos work inside. Finally, you can’t overreact to the run game in a manner which makes you vulnerable to either cutbacks or play-action.
Texas really had the Bears fairly well drawn up last year but Baylor feasted on Texas’ indecisiveness at linebacker, particularly with option plays. It shouldn’t be an issue again in 2022, nor will the Texas D-line wear down as they did a year ago. The Longhorns have a chance to control this game if they can stop the run and force a lot of passing downs.
Quinn Ewers vs Dave Aranda
This matchup is the chief concern of the contest. Aranda had the following to say about Quinn Ewers in his press conference this week (at 9:38):
“I think when he sees the coverages and he’s really clear ‘hey this is is what they’re doing, this is where my 1-on-1 is, here’s very clearly what my progression is,’ and all that stuff is kinda lined up he’s very, very good. I think when it’s kinda dirty or grey, I think it’s better for the defense. And his arm strength is such that, man he can make all the throws. So you have to, if the ball is on a hash and you’re on an out way on the other side of it, you gotta be able to stick your foot in the ground and drive for three hard steps, close that distance cause that ball could be there and he could throw that guy open.”
Dave Aranda on Quinn Ewers
“It’s better for the defense” is basically a euphemism for, “he isn’t any good.”
So what will Aranda’s plan be for defending Texas, you think? Probably loading up to stop Bijan Robinson while clouding the reads for Ewers. Fortunately for the Longhorns, Baylor isn’t particularly good in the secondary or at disguising their blitzes relative to a year ago.
Here’s TCU throwing a post route to Quentin Johnston from a Texas-ish 21 personnel formation with the same Y-cross type concept Steve Sarkisian dials up every week.
Play-action off a feigned counter/power run, action out of the backfield, late motion for the tight end to come into the box but then run up the seam…all very Sark-like.
Baylor runs a Rover (Will linebacker) insert blitz but their backer is a bit late to realize his assignment and he effectively takes himself out of the play. The boundary safety picks up the crosser and the field safety doesn’t get depth to take the post. Notice also how deep they play their cornerbacks this season, also very 2021 Texas-like. Not a ton of trust there from the Baylor defensive staff.
Finally, observe how long Max Duggan stared this down without drawing extra defensive backs to the ball effectively. This isn’t masterclass offense by TCU, they just had plenty of time, their quarterback made a good throw to a large and terrific target in Quentin Johnston, and Baylor flubbed it.
Baylor will probably show Texas the same sort of pre-snap look with the cornerbacks and safeties (exempting the Star/nickel) lined up 8-10 yards deep in nearly a straight line across the field before shifting into Cover 3, staying in Cover 4, or mixing in some Cover 2. That’s been their game this season, keep receivers in front of them and don’t allow the quarterback to simply drop and throw to a spot off a pre-snap read.
Texas needs to give Ewers a few play calls where he can suss out the Baylor defense and hit some throws down the field. This Cover 4 look from the Bears is close to the right answer for them in this game. Ewers has hit the crossing routes all year but he can’t hit the post so watch for Baylor to potentially give Texas the post unless they prove they can hit it while the safeties sit on crossers and the run game.
Bijan vs the Bear’s front
Baylor famously shut down Bijan last season, holding him to 43 yards on 17 carries at 2.5 ypc. Their D-line was pretty famous heading into this season due to some performances like that one…but it was somewhat unearned.
You know one of the real keys to Baylor’s dominant run defense in 2021?
Jalen Pitre had only two tackles all day (one of them a sack) but he kept blowing up Texas’ tight ends and freeing up the linebackers to run clean to the ball. He’s gone now, which helps quite a bit, as is Rover backer Terrel Bernard whom the Bears have also struggled to replace.
Can Texas just line up and move Baylor out the way in the run game? Maybe. Certainly not if the Bears load the box as aggressively as TCU did, but if they play their defensive backs off the ball and backpedaling a bit? Maybe so.
What if Texas were to go a little more spread and rely on RPOs to Jordan Whittington and Xavier Worthy to keep the box clean rather than play-action shots? That might help Quinn Ewers find a rhythm while still enabling Texas to go try and win the game with senior playmakers like Whitt and Bijan. Texas nearly completed a successful comeback against the Bears a year ago by running RPOs in the 4th quarter.
Baylor’s run defense isn’t as intimidating as it used to be, this is definitely a game Bijan could dominate if Texas can force a reasonably honest approach. There’d be no better way to send him out on Senior Day than with 30 touches, 200 yards, and some touchdowns to keep Texas’ Big 12 Championship hopes alive.
