What I'm watching for Week 1 in the Big 12

On3 imageby:Ian Boyd09/01/21

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Week 1 in the Big 12 has a fairly eclectic mix of games, some are your standard “bring in a patsy for us to beat up,” some are “hey this might actually get interesting…” contests, and then you have a few intentional big time bouts. Scheduling a good opponent in Week 1 is always risky, the first game playing someone aside from your own offense/defense and scout teams often reveals issues fall camp didn’t expose. The players also tend to snap to attention for Week 2 after making correctable mistakes in an actual game.

We’ll start with the easy contests:

Oklahoma -31.5 vs Tulane

Mostly what I want to see here is who Alex Grinch puts on the field and how they are deployed. Can their cornerbacks mix in some press-man coverage after an extra offseason? Or is this crew going to continue the late season and bowl game trend of playing off in Match 3 and Cover 2?

I’m a little curious about the offense as well but not really as much as I am for the defense. Interestingly, Lincoln Riley has as of yet declined to provide the media or poor, Hurricane-distracted Tulane with a depth chart. However, we do know the offensive line will be something like:

  • Left tackle: Wanya Morris, 6-foot-5, 313 pounds OR Anton Harrison, 6-foot-5, 317 pounds
  • Left guard: Marquis Hayes, 6-foot-5, 335 pounds
  • Center: Andrew Raym, 6-foot-3, 304 pounds
  • Right guard: Chris Murray, 6-foot-1, 303 pounds
  • Right tackle: Tyrese Robinson, 6-foot-3, 326 pounds

That’s a different beast, these guys are mostly smaller athletes. I expect outside zone to be prominent and GT counter to make a big comeback for the Sooners.

However, I am curious how a team with only two scholarship running backs intends to finish drives in the red zone. Wouldn’t be shocked to see Caleb Williams get some early action in a red zone package oriented around quarterback run game.

South Dakota vs Kansas

I’ll look this one up if the Jayhawks lose. Otherwise, uninterested. Wrong South Dakota university.It’s the SD State Jackrabbits who are the real threat.

TCU vs Duquesne

There’s very little about this game which has my interest other than the starting lineup for the Horned Frogs. If they get out there and show some wildly new schemes on offense or defense I may circle back for a look but unless Duquesne is sneaky good, I don’t expect much from this glorified scrimmage.

Oklahoma State vs Missouri State

Mostly curious to see two things.

What sort of dropback passing game are they deploying with Spencer Sanders?

How are they using Christian Holmes in coverage? Is he in press-man like Ro Williams or do they let the cat out of the bag and show a lot more zone coverages?

You know, this could get interesting though…

Baylor -13.5 vs Texas State

Texas State was 2-10 last year, then brought in a class exclusively composed of transfers, which I took as mostly as a sign of desperation. Someone who follows Texas State more closely noted a few other factors at play. First, the COVID exemption was forgiving to the notion of losing a freshman class because essentially, you don’t lose it. Secondly, the Bobcat roster for Jake Spavital was really young and adding a bunch of transfers mostly just filled out the upperclassmen ranks in a way you’d expect to see on a normal roster.

Anyways, I want to see the new “reliably physical offense” for the Bears. The Bobcats sucked on defense last season so even in an opener with transfers and a new quarterback, the Bears should still be able to score.

Iowa State vs Northern Iowa

The Panthers played good defense last season and terrible offense. Probably doesn’t make them a great challenger for the Cyclones but it should allow them to be a nice test of the Iowa State offensive front. If I know anything from watching Matt Campbell’s teams over the last few years it’s that they start slow and stay vanilla early before facing Iowa and the Big 12 schedule. I’m pretty sure he’d like to go into this game and just hammer the Panthers with a committee of running backs without showing much. Are they finally at a level where they can get away with playing vanilla? They only beat UNI 29-26 two years ago.

Texas -8 vs Louisiana

Much like with Iowa State a year ago, the danger in this game for Texas lies mostly in sloppiness. The 31-14 margin Billy Napier’s Ragin Cajuns managed against the Cyclones last year was a result of two special teams touchdowns, a coverage bust touchdown, and two Iowa State turnovers (as well as Charlie Kolar’s absence).

Louisiana will be sound and poised coming into DKR with 20 returning starters, but if Texas plays a smart, clean game they should cover the spread. If they don’t? Still not sure how much it will tell us about Texas. After all, Iowa State was sloppy and then went to the Big 12 Championship.

If they play a clean game but struggle to out-execute Louisiana? Now THAT could portend another long season in Austin.

Get your popcorn

Kansas State -3 vs Stanford

I don’t know much about Stanford’s team this year but I take it they have some holes on the roster given the Wildcats are favored. The Cardinal do still have Duane Akina coaching their defensive backs and went 4-2 last season so they have some talent on campus. Can the Wildcats move them out of the A-gaps? Can they get open outside for Skylar Thompson against man coverage?

West Virginia -3 vs Maryland

Taulia or “Case” Tagovailoa as I have often liked to call him, played pretty decent football for Maryland last season. They were able to run an RPO offense under Mike Locksley which freed up running back Jake Funk for 516 yards at 8.6 ypc. Funk is gone, but I suspect the system was a bigger factor in his success.

Mostly what I want to see here is whether or not West Virginia can still hold it down inside without one of the Stills bros and how Jarrett Doege looks after his heralded offseason.

Texas Tech -1 vs Houston

I’m calling this the, “oh crap, I’m so fired…” bowl. Dana Holgorsen has continued his trend from West Virginia of struggling to find high level quarterback play (particularly if not aided by the transfer portal). His bold move to tank in 2019 backfired spectacularly when D’Eriq King and the right tackle both transferred to Miami and then COVID wrecked their 2020 schedule. It’s clearly put up or shut up time for Dana and look, Dana loves Houston. He wants to keep this job and Houston wants to audition for realignment. The intensity around their football facilities must be close to what it was in Morgantown after Pump fake Purdy and the flyover defense embarrassed the Mountaineers in 2018.

Meanwhile, Texas Tech has built up some hype and expectations by adding Tyler Shough and talking up his potential impact. The defense Matt Wells talked up due to linebacker play announced a 3-3-5 starting lineup which looks akin to the Iowa State setup with Wisconsin transfer Reggie Pearson in a “spur safety” position I suspect will be the middle, downhill player.

I’ll give it a look but, as I’ve noted before, the flyover defense does need true ends to work properly. The reason it’s worked for Iowa State and worked for Baylor in 2019 was they had legit pass-rushers at end. Tech announced a starting pair of Devin Drew and Tyree Wilson with Brandon Bouyer-Randle and Colin Schooler as the outside linebackers. Not one proven pass-rusher in the mix.

Either the Holgo-Raid offense or the Wells defense is going to come out of this like…

Oh No We Suck Again GIFs | Tenor

You don’t want to make too much out of Week 1…no, that’s not right. We all love to make way too much out of Week 1 and will collectively be ready to fire the loser here on behalf of their university and athletic director.

What are you watching for?

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