Who won Championship Week in the Big 12?

On3 imageby:Ian Boyd12/06/21

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Obviously the Baylor Bears were the biggest winners. They managed to narrowly edge out the Oklahoma State Cowboys in a game which regularly looked as though it should be a Bear blowout but in the end was about as close run a thing as you can imagine.

The final play…

…ultimately emblematic of the whole game. The ‘Pokes couldn’t run the ball on the Bears. Dezmon Jackson carried the main load and had 19 carries for 31 yards at 1.6 ypc. Spencer Sanders was also liberally involved and had 13 carries for 33 yards at 2.5 ypc. Dom Richardson tried to help with seven carries but they added only two more yards to the total at .3 ypc.

Total domination.

The All-Big 12’s QB1 for Oklahoma State had to try and do it through the air, which resulted in a 31-46 day with 257 yards at 5.6 ypa, zero touchdowns, and four interceptions.

It’s almost a miracle Oklahoma State scored 16 points, yet they had 10 tries from the Baylor 10 or closer on two of their final three drives and managed only three points.

Then there was this amusing bit after the game.

Oklahoma hired Brent Venables shortly after the Championship games resolved, which I have opined on here.

It’s been a busy week around the league. Let’s break it down in our customary weekly fashion.

Contrar-Ian says the glass is half-full

There were several moments in the last two weeks where it appeared the Oklahoma State Cowboys were going to win their second Big 12 Championship under Mike Gundy and then finally get into the playoffs.

When it became clear they could get Baylor in the Big 12 final if they knocked the Sooners out in Bedlam? It looked promising. Then they did so and it was obvious Gerry Bohanon wasn’t going to be able to play, leaving the Bears to trust their fate to Charlie Brewer look-alike and current back-up Blake Shapen.

The actual game obviously went poorly with multiple Sanders’ picks from the get-go, but the ‘Pokes had MANY chances to tie or take the lead late in the game and ultimately came up INCHES short.

Let’s backtrack here to the Baylor Bears.

When the ‘Pokes drew a defensive pass interference call on 3rd-and-3 from the Baylor 6, giving them 1st-and-goal from the Baylor 2, my Twitter timeline was filled with people saying “just let them score.”

The reasoning? Don’t let OSU run out the rest of the clock (there was 1:19 left) before inevitably scoring a touchdown and leaving Baylor down either 22-21 or 24-21 with virtually no time left.

The problem with that reasoning and virtually all reasoning based in statistical analysis? It’s based on universal averages which don’t always fit to individual contexts.

In this context, Dave Aranda made the right choice. That’s easy to say now, but consider that Baylor had done a lot of nothing in the second half and Blake Shapen had taken a blow to his shoulder and been sacked three times, on one of those occasions fumbling the ball. When he could get the ball out before the OSU pass-rushers got to him he was 6-7 for 29 yards at 4.1 ypa.

Did you want the game determined by Shapen trying to set up a field goal in about a minute? Or in your defensive front stonewalling OSU four times from the two yard line? Statistically maybe the former, but for Baylor it had to be the latter.

Here’s where OSU can try (but surely fail) to take solace.

Ultimately the ‘Pokes had worse injuries going into this game than did the Bears. Baylor’s offense was not meaningfully damaged by subbing in Blake Shapen for Gerry Bohanon, they lost some of the quarterback run dimension but arguably improved in the passing game. At any rate, neither drove the bus for this offense, that was the offensive line, Abram Smith, and the overall quality of their skill talent.

Oklahoma State went into this game without Braden Cassity (ancillary), Danny Godlevske (center), or Jaylen Warren (running back). Their run game was absolutely gutted by those losses and they couldn’t run outside zone in this game worth a lick. So they were left to try and mash downhill with Dom Richardson on inside zone against the biggest and best defensive front in the Big 12.

They marched down the field on their final possession throwing RPOs at tempo against the Bears as their big guys huffed and puffed and struggled to line up. Once you get into the red zone though, RPOs dry up because there’s no space in which to create run/pass conflicts. Then you have to either beat coverage or run people over. OSU could do neither and lost.

What if they’d been healthy for this game? What if they’d just had Jaylen Warren’s change of direction and superior knack for finding inside lanes on those goal line runs? They probably win.

Such is life in the Big 12. There’s not a ton of difference between any of these teams in overall team talent (except Oklahoma) and the Championships come down to depth, injury luck, and essentially which teams retain their core identity pieces amidst the grind of the season. Baylor’s core identity was in the trenches, which held up for this game. OSU depended on defense and the run game, the latter took too many injuries.

Transfer portal intrigue

One of the telling features of the 2021 Big 12 was the shoddy quarterback play. The fact Spencer Sanders ended up QB1 on the list and then threw the game away in the Championship is as indicative of anything else of how far off their old standard the Big 12 landed this season.

Do not expect this to continue.

Check out the changes coming to some Big 12 teams in terms of offensive coordinator, direction, and quarterback play:

I was shocked when K-State’s gameplan for Texas this season didn’t look like a Collin Klein/Wildcat offense when they had to start Will Howard. Instead their offensive coordinator Courtney Messingham put Deuce Vaughn in the Wildcat in short-yardage…my man is 5-6, 172!!!

Now Klein is literally calling the shots with his facsimile at the helm. This is a smart and obviously proven direction for K-State to go in. Imagine their offense next year running Snyder-ball with an improving O-line, tons of big blockers, and Deuce Vaughn back alongside Howard.

Sounds like one of the schools in Texas is going to add the 5-star to their quarterback room for spring ball. Initially Pete Thamel reported Quinn Ewers was interested in Texas Tech, Texas, and Texas A&M but then the Aggies indicated they weren’t pursuing him.

So Texas Tech, TCU, or Texas for the golden mullet.

Texas Tech will continue their exclusive focus on Mike Leach Air Raid disciples this century on offense, whether they add the golden mullet or stick with Tyler Shough or Donovan Smith. Kittley runs more of a Kliff Kingsbury, the blessed, style of Air Raid. Meaning they’ll incorporate run actions but they want to chuck it around.

Joey McGuire seems to be approaching this like, “obviously it works to throw the ball around in the Air Raid out here. We’ll keep doing that but I’ll get us to actually play some freaking defense.”

Pretty good plan, honestly.

Baylor returns Gerry B and Shapen. Iowa State has Hunter Dekker.

Oklahoma has to convince Caleb Williams to stick around, but if they don’t I’d be awfully suspicious that Dillon Gabriel (Lebby’s quarterback at UCF) might transfer to Norman to reunite with his coach should they make that hire. There’s also Adrian Martinez in the portal and there will be others before long. Obviously Oklahoma would be a big participant in the portal should they lose Caleb Williams.

TCU might get the golden mullet I guess, or they can just have a battle between Chandler Morris and Max Duggan for the opportunity to run Sonny Dykes’ brand of Air Raid.

Contrar-Ian says the glass is half-empty

The glass is also definitely half-empty for Oklahoma State.

Hey Cowboy fans, let me tell you about another team who returned a sizable chunk of their team after winning a bunch of single-possession games and coming within inches of winning the Big 12 Championship late in the game…

…the 2020 Iowa State Cyclones.

I know OSU returns a big chunk of their team next year but I don’t think they’ll return their competition (early Baylor, beat-up K-State, distracted Oklahoma) and they won’t return their single-possession game luck. Does Mike Gundy call and control games masterfully down the stretch? Yes, but you can’t count on that all the time.

The biggest problem is probably Spencer Sanders returning as QB1. I think he can get better next year if the run game is more consistent and they protect him better, but I doubt he’s ever a guy who handles pressure well. It’s hard to believe OSU will get another chance like this in 2022, they need to improve just to tread water.

Let me also add this about Baylor, they are winning huge with the retention of Dave Aranda despite interest from USC, LSU, and Oklahoma. They also won the Big 12 Championship, which is more or less the pinnacle of what most every program in the country should be aiming to do. Win your league.

The big follow-up win though would be to win a NY6 Bowl against a nationally competitive and respected program so Baylor can finally remove that final “yeah, but…” from their 21st century rise.

Their draw? The Ole Miss Rebels, a 10-2 squad who may see their offensive coordinator poached by Oklahoma and their quarterback declare for the draft and opt-out. IF Baylor gets to play against Matt Corrall and a relatively full-strength Ole Miss then the opportunity will be there for a statement win. But if they beat a Corrall-less Rebel squad who then pulls the “we didn’t care” card the SEC is famous for in bowl games, there won’t be as much in it for the Bears.

I know it’s infuriating, Baylor fans, just telling you what’s coming. The SEC has mastered the “heads we win, tails you lose” PR game around bowls.

Who won Championship Week in the Big 12?

Obviously it’s Baylor. They now have three Big 12 Championships (2013, 2014, 2021), which has them in a tie with the Texas Longhorns (1996, 2005, 2009). Oklahoma has like 12 or something and everyone else has three or less.

Heading into the future Big 12, Baylor’s commitment to football and sustained rise has them in good position. The strongest program in the league after Texas and Oklahoma leave? Potentially.

Overall the Big 12 landed another win in the playoff rankings. I know Baylor being ranked below Ohio State has been extremely frustrating in Waco, the league also lost out on getting Oklahoma State into the playoffs with their defeat. The Big 12 has always been a bit of a crab bucket league and will be even more of one when they add four new programs with Baylor/OSU level resources and strength.

Here are the wins.

Future Big 12 team Cincinnati is in. They have a chance to prove G5 programs belong and/or otherwise bolster the league’s rep when they join in 202whenever.

Expansion is going to be pushed through now. The alliance leagues DESPERATELY need expansion, more than ever after Alabama beat Georgia and got two of four slots for the SEC. The SEC supports expansion but they want to see a lot of at-large bids so they can fill out the playoff bracket with their teams. The other leagues would like to try and shut the SEC out, but it’s obviously impossible, and limiting the playoffs to four is devastating for the Pac-12 and Big 12 who need the expanded field and automatic entry for conference champions.

So the SEC won this weekend, but down the road the Big 12 should be a winner when they give the champion an automatic path to the playoffs with an expanded field. Otherwise, the bar is essentially being set at “Go 12-1 or 13-0 or you’re out.” That’s gonna be tough.

What did you make of Championship Week in the Big 12? Discuss for free on the Flyover Football board!

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