The transfer portal and the hunt for a College Football Playoff berth
Both preseason polls are out, and using the eight-year history of the College Football Playoff as a guide, no team outside the top six of the preseason AP poll will win the national title.
While just one preseason No. 1 has ended up winning the CFP title (Alabama in 2017), every titlist in the era began the season ranked sixth or better. The other seven: 2014 champ Ohio State was fifth in the preseason; 2015 champ Alabama was third; 2016 titlist Clemson was second; 2018 winner Clemson was second; 2019 champ LSU was sixth; 2020 titlist Alabama was third; and 2021 winner Georgia was fifth.
This season, that would mean the six teams that could win it all are Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, Clemson, Notre Dame and Texas A&M.
As for making the four-team Playoff field, teams ranked No. 1 through No. 7 in the preseason AP poll have combined for 24 of the 32 CFP appearances. In addition, 31 of the 32 teams that have made the field have been ranked in the top 19. The only outlier: Michigan was unranked to start the season last year.
With that info as a backdrop, we’re going to examine how the transfer portal might impact this season’s CFP race. Last season, there were three portal newcomers who started for their teams in the Playoff: Alabama wide receiver Jameson Williams, Alabama linebacker Henry To’oTo’o and Georgia cornerback Derion Kendrick. Williams was the Tide’s leading receiver, To’oTo’o the Tide’s leading tackler and Kendrick the Bulldogs’ leader in interceptions. There were other former transfers on the four rosters (most notably, Cincinnati running back Jerome Ford and Bearcats linebacker Darrian Beavers), but the aforementioned three were the only starters who transferred in during the offseason.
So, how could the transfer portal – specifically, each team’s top transfer – impact the hunt for a CFP berth this season? Here’s a breakdown of the top seven in the AP poll, two other potential challengers in the Pac-12 to the one league team ranked in the top seven, the two top-ranked teams from the Big 12 (neither in the top seven) and the two highest-ranked Group of 5 teams.
The top seven
1. Alabama: The biggest issues headed into the offseason were finding a go-to receiver and improving at offensive tackle. Nick Saban solved both problems in the transfer portal. Getting wide receiver Jermaine Burton from Georgia was the most important move. He had 53 catches in two seasons with the Bulldogs, but should blow by that number this season in an offense predicated on the pass. In addition, Burton is a proven deep threat (his five TD catches averaged 42.0 yards last season). Bringing in tackle Tyler Steen from Vanderbilt likely didn’t register for many fans, but that also was an important acquisition. Steen was a three-year starter at Vandy and gives Alabama an experienced hand at a position that didn’t have much experience. Adding former Georgia Tech running back Jahmyr Gibbs, who should vie for All-America honors? That’s just Saban putting a thumb in the eye of every other coach.
2. Ohio State: The defense needs to be a lot better than it was last season if the Buckeyes are to win it all. Things should be different this season with Jim Knowles as the new coordinator. The Buckeyes’ most important transfer is nickel back Tanner McCalister, who followed Knowles from Oklahoma State. McCalister was a two-year starter at Oklahoma State. He signed with the Cowboys as a cornerback and played extensively as a reserve corner in 2018 and ’19. He moved to safety in 2020 and became a starter, and kept his starting spot in 2021. McCalister had 34 tackles, an interception and five pass breakups last season for one of the nation’s best defenses. His versatility, experience and knowledge of Knowles’ scheme should lead to him starting at nickel, and will make him an important part of a reconfigured Buckeyes secondary.
3. Georgia: There is no transfer who will make an impact because Georgia signed no one out of the portal. Yes, the Bulldogs have a deep and talented roster. But so does Alabama, and as noted above, Saban found transfers who will help this season.
4. Clemson: The Tigers brought in one transfer. And no offense to quarterback Hunter Johnson, who transferred back to Clemson after spending time at Northwestern, but if he has to play a lot this season, the Tigers aren’t making the CFP.
5. Notre Dame: The Irish lost their best defensive back when Kyle Hamilton turned pro, but bringing in S Brandon Joseph was a huge move. Joseph was a first-team All-American as a redshirt freshman at Northwestern in 2020, when he had 52 tackles, six interceptions and two pass breakups. In 2021, he had 80 tackles, three picks and four pass breakups in earning second-team All-Big Ten honors. Joseph should fit nicely in the Irish defensive scheme. The Irish secondary, which returned its other three starters, gets a monster test right out of the gate because Notre Dame opens September 3 at Ohio State.
6. Texas A&M: The Aggies signed one transfer, quarterback Max Johnson from LSU. He is better than Zach Calzada, last season’s starter, but his upside is a question. He is vying with Haynes King for the starting job. King opened last season as the starter but was lost for the year after an injury suffered in Game 3. Johnson was LSU’s starter last season; he threw 27 TD passes, but 13 came in four non-conference games. And while he completed 60.3 percent of his passes for the season, he was at 57.3 percent in SEC games. In some respects, he’s a lot like his dad, former NFL quarterback Brad Johnson. Brad was the starter when Tampa Bay won the Super Bowl in the 2002 season, but he merely was along for the ride; a suffocating defense was the reason Tampa Bay won it all. If Max Johnson is the starter, A&M’s defense will have to lead the way. King has a dual-threat element that Johnson doesn’t possess (King has legitimate top-end speed), and he might be able to win some games because of that. Johnson is more of a “he won’t lose the game for you” kind of quarterback.
7. Utah: Utah’s offense figures to be a bit better than last season’s – and the Utes won the Pac-12 in 2021. But there are at least some minor concerns about the defense, though, especially at linebacker. Utah runs a 4-2-5 set and lost both starting linebackers: All-American Devin Lloyd and Nephi Sewell. The addition of LB Mohamoud Diabate, then, is important. He was Florida’s No. 2 tackler in 2021 with 89 stops; he was a part-time starter in 2020, when he made 68 tackles. Diabate lacks bulk (he’s listed at 220 pounds), but does move well. Diabate missed spring practice while recovering from shoulder surgery; if he is able to seamlessly move into the lineup, a lot of other pieces should fall into place. Cool storyline: His first game with the Utes is September 3 at Florida.
Two others in the Pac-12
Oregon: The transfer we think makes the most impact is cornerback Christian Gonzalez from Colorado. Gonzalez should end up being the Ducks’ best defensive back this season, as well as contend for all-league honors. He started every game the past two seasons for Colorado, and he followed Buffs cornerbacks coach Demetrice Martin to Eugene. Oregon’s secondary underachieved relative to its talent level last season, but you can bet new coach Dan Lanning will have the defense playing at a higher level this season. New safeties coach Matt Powledge (hired away from Baylor) also is the co-coordinator; he and Martin must get the secondary to play at a higher level this season.
USC: Quarterback Caleb Williams was the top player in the transfer portal this cycle, and his presence is the reason that USC – despite its defensive flaws – could win the Pac-12 this season. New coach Lincoln Riley remade his offensive roster, thanks to the portal, with Williams the obvious centerpiece. He threw for 1,912 yards and 21 TDs and also rushed for 435 yards and six scores last season; in the seven games he started, he showed off a special playmaking ability and a ton of sheer athletic talent. He also had some growing pains normal for a freshman, and one of the bigger storylines this season will be how he does in his second year in Riley’s offense. The bet here is he does quite well and has the Trojans contending for the league crown.
The two highest-ranked Big 12 teams
Oklahoma: The Sooners are looking to win the Big 12 for the seventh time in eight seasons, and OU should have the best offense in the league thanks to quarterback Dillon Gabriel. Gabriel, a transfer from UCF, is a great fit for new coordinator Jeff Lebby’s offense. Hey, he already has excelled playing for Lebby. As a true freshman in 2019 at UCF, with Lebby as the OC, Gabriel threw for 3,653 yards and 29 TDs as the Knights went 10-3. Gabriel throws an especially nice deep ball, which should make speedy wide receiver Marvin Mims might happy.
Baylor: If the Bears are to repeat as Big 12 champs, the defense is going to have to lead the way. The Bears’ defensive line should be one of the three best nationally, and tackle Jaxon Player – a transfer from Tulsa, where he was a three-year starter and two-time All-AAC pick – will play a key role. Baylor is loaded up front; all three starters return, as well as the top three backups. But Player, a native of Waco, Texas, still is going to play major minutes. He had 15 tackles for loss last season and 32 in his Tulsa career. Player has the ability to be a disruptive force like fellow DT Siaki Ika.
The two highest-ranked G5 teams
Two AAC teams were in the preseason top 25 – Cincinnati and Houston. They were the only two G5 programs in the top 25.
Cincinnati: The Bearcats hit some positions of need in the portal, with four noteworthy transfers: quarterback Ben Bryant from Eastern Michigan (he spent one season at EMU after transferring from Cincinnati), wide receiver Nick Mardner from Hawaii, linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. from Miami (Ohio) and kicker Ryan Coe from Delaware. The most important? Good question. Bryant is battling holdover Evan Prater for the starting job. If Mardner doesn’t start, he still will be a key part of the rotation. Pace will join his younger brother, DeShawn, in the starting lineup. And that brings us to Coe. As good as the Bearcats were last season, their kickers struggled, with three guys combining to go 9-of-19 on field goals. It didn’t matter, though, because the Bearcats played just two one-score games, and each of their 13 wins came by at least eight points. Coe, who was 12-of-15 with the Blue Hens, is supposed to provide consistency.
Houston: The Cougars don’t need any transfer to make a huge impact, but they did dip into the portal, especially at wide receiver. Two starters return at the position, including standout Tank Dell, and Houston signed four-star prospect Matthew Golden, who had a great spring. Houston also brought in four transfer receivers: Samuel Brown (West Virginia), Cody Jackson (Oklahoma), Brice Johnson (Ole Miss) and Joseph Manjack IV (USC). Depth was an issue at wide receiver last season; it will not be a problem this fall. A torn ACL will sideline standout running back Alton McCaskill this season, so the passing attack will be even more important than it was in 2021.