Well, USC moved all the way up to #97 in the NET (11 spots). I know this still doesn't seem good but there are still tons of Quad 1 opportunities that await and the SOS will continue to rise as the SEC plays the SEC. Another win tonight will move Carolina another 11 spots or so higher with another Quad 1 road win.
Tonight's Matchup
Well, there appear to be a lot of similarities between Texas A&M and Mississippi State in terms of record and how the teams have cooled off. Again, USC is facing the #1 (new - replaced Texas A&M) conference leader in turnover percentage, the #2 SEC team in Offensive Rebounding and the #14 team in 3-point shooting/13th in 3-point defense. Miss State is also 4th in Offensive Efficiency and 12th in Defensive Efficiency (USC is 14th and 5th respectively). So, again, it will boil down to whether an improving USC can exploit second chance points and limit offense rebounding. Again, the entire game will boil down to whether USC can limit the 2-point damage enough while tamping down turnovers. It worked on Saturday and needs to work today.
Deeper level analysis (points off turnovers, bench points, points in the point, etc.) show that Mississippi State has won and lost all of these categories along the way. Recent losses showed Miss State get hammered on bench points (-10) and points in the paint (a staggering -28) v. Texas Tech to winning these categories against Kentucky but getting handled by second chance points (-10) to beating Florida points in the paint by 14 but allowing Florida to go 10-24 from 3-pointers while losing late.
In the end, it seems to all boil down to defense. In those losses Mississippi State allowed 54%, 62% and 70% shooting in the second half. In the last 3, South Carolina has been a 52%, 45% and 54% second half shooting team.
This sets up perfectly for a "survive and thrive" game with a late run to salt away a victory. Has South Carolina turned the corner enough not to be overwhelmed early far from home and then have the confidence to pull off another 13-minute hammer for the rest of the game? Unless, Miss State started to enter quit mode with the Texas Tech massacre on Saturday, tonight it must happen, again, because analytically Mississippi State's players are better than USC. As important as controlling Henderson was last game, USC will need to control Iverson Molinar who is by far their most productive player -- hopefully, they can get him to force a bunch of threes. Hopefully #2, the refs will call moving screens and PG push offs as these are two things Mississippi State does more than ring cow bells but might not sure how bad it will be now that all of the Witherspoons are gone.
Calming Frank?
Of note, during the second half, Stevenson told Frank to calm down. It made enough of an impression that Frank jokingly made reference to it during the postgame show and said he finally has a team, again, where the players can step up and take over. I hope this is really the case and not just a "winning cures all" type comment. When the team and Frank appear to be concentrating on adjustments and not screaming every other play, they actually can get into a flow. If the team is starting to take over so much that Frank doesn't feel the need to micromanage (scream) after every negative possession then the team can reach its full potential.
Reese
I don't know if we're giving enough credit to Reese. He's usually tasked with guard their best player while also being responsible for a lot of offensive production in the most minutes of anyone on the team. From a production standard, the numbers place Reese, AJ Wilson and Woodley (who should be back tonight) as the most important players in conference play. Reese also put up 20 and 19 in the last 2 games and has an opportunity to score against one of the worst 3-point defenses in the league.
In the end, I am still hopeful but we all know how these teams will break your heart. Would love to hear your thoughts.
Tonight's Matchup
Well, there appear to be a lot of similarities between Texas A&M and Mississippi State in terms of record and how the teams have cooled off. Again, USC is facing the #1 (new - replaced Texas A&M) conference leader in turnover percentage, the #2 SEC team in Offensive Rebounding and the #14 team in 3-point shooting/13th in 3-point defense. Miss State is also 4th in Offensive Efficiency and 12th in Defensive Efficiency (USC is 14th and 5th respectively). So, again, it will boil down to whether an improving USC can exploit second chance points and limit offense rebounding. Again, the entire game will boil down to whether USC can limit the 2-point damage enough while tamping down turnovers. It worked on Saturday and needs to work today.
Deeper level analysis (points off turnovers, bench points, points in the point, etc.) show that Mississippi State has won and lost all of these categories along the way. Recent losses showed Miss State get hammered on bench points (-10) and points in the paint (a staggering -28) v. Texas Tech to winning these categories against Kentucky but getting handled by second chance points (-10) to beating Florida points in the paint by 14 but allowing Florida to go 10-24 from 3-pointers while losing late.
In the end, it seems to all boil down to defense. In those losses Mississippi State allowed 54%, 62% and 70% shooting in the second half. In the last 3, South Carolina has been a 52%, 45% and 54% second half shooting team.
This sets up perfectly for a "survive and thrive" game with a late run to salt away a victory. Has South Carolina turned the corner enough not to be overwhelmed early far from home and then have the confidence to pull off another 13-minute hammer for the rest of the game? Unless, Miss State started to enter quit mode with the Texas Tech massacre on Saturday, tonight it must happen, again, because analytically Mississippi State's players are better than USC. As important as controlling Henderson was last game, USC will need to control Iverson Molinar who is by far their most productive player -- hopefully, they can get him to force a bunch of threes. Hopefully #2, the refs will call moving screens and PG push offs as these are two things Mississippi State does more than ring cow bells but might not sure how bad it will be now that all of the Witherspoons are gone.
Calming Frank?
Of note, during the second half, Stevenson told Frank to calm down. It made enough of an impression that Frank jokingly made reference to it during the postgame show and said he finally has a team, again, where the players can step up and take over. I hope this is really the case and not just a "winning cures all" type comment. When the team and Frank appear to be concentrating on adjustments and not screaming every other play, they actually can get into a flow. If the team is starting to take over so much that Frank doesn't feel the need to micromanage (scream) after every negative possession then the team can reach its full potential.
Reese
I don't know if we're giving enough credit to Reese. He's usually tasked with guard their best player while also being responsible for a lot of offensive production in the most minutes of anyone on the team. From a production standard, the numbers place Reese, AJ Wilson and Woodley (who should be back tonight) as the most important players in conference play. Reese also put up 20 and 19 in the last 2 games and has an opportunity to score against one of the worst 3-point defenses in the league.
In the end, I am still hopeful but we all know how these teams will break your heart. Would love to hear your thoughts.
