ESPN releases 2023 College Football Playoff, full bowl projections after Week 4

After a weekend packed with marquee games between ranked opponents we’re starting to get a much better idea which contenders are truly contenders and which are pretenders. There weren’t necessarily many crazy upsets on Saturday, but there were plenty of games that shook up the bowl projections.

Among those were Ohio State‘s win over Notre Dame, Florida State‘s overtime win over Clemson and Oregon‘s shellacking of Colorado.

How did those few games, as well as dozens of others over the weekend, help shake up this week’s college football bowl projections from ESPN experts Mark Schlabach and Kyle Bonagura? Let’s take a look inside.

CFP National Championship

NRG Stadium (Houston)
Monday, Jan. 8, 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia vs. Washington
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Michigan

While Schlabach hasn’t tinkered with his national championship game pairing from a week ago despite shaking up his four playoff teams, Bonagura has. Last week, Bonagura has Georgia facing Michigan in the championship game, but he has replaced the Wolverines with the Huskies at this point. With Michael Penix Jr. and the high-flying Washington offense making believers, it’s certainly conceivable to see Washington making a playoff return after last reaching them in 2016.

CFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl

Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
Monday, Jan. 1, 5 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Washington
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Washington

Both ESPN writers had Michigan vs. USC in the Rose Bowl semifinal last week, but both have removed the Trojans from their playoff list altogether after USC struggled somewhat against lowly Arizona State over the weekend. In place of the Pac-12 contender steps Washington, again looking for its first playoff berth since 2016. And while Schlabach has the Wolverines advancing to face Georgia in the national title game, Bonagura has the Huskies getting through.

CFP Semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl

Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Monday, Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia vs. Texas
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Texas

Not a big surprise to see both ESPN writers having Georgia in the favorable playoff berth in the south, given both have Georgia as their top seed. But the interesting thing here is that both have dropped Florida State from their playoff mix this week following a second close call, this time in overtime against Clemson. Texas is looking like their best bet to emerge from the Big 12.

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

Friday, Dec. 29
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oklahoma vs. Oregon
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Oregon

Bonagura’s picks have completely changed up this week for the Cotton Bowl, going from Tennessee vs. Texas to Oklahoma vs. Oregon. That’s in part because he now has Texas going to the playoffs, while he has Tennessee slipping to the Music City Bowl. Schlabach’s projection for the Cotton Bowl retains Notre Dame this week, despite the loss to Ohio State. And both now have Oregon as the opponent here.

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 30
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Alabama vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: LSU vs. Penn State

There was very little change to the ESPN bowl projections for the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl, with only one swap, from Bonagura. Instead of Memphis facing Alabama, he now has Fresno State as the most impressive Group of Five team taking that slot. After two close games to start the season, including a nice road win at Purdue, Fresno State has posted back-to-back blowouts. Schlabach, meanwhile, still has LSU vs. Penn State as his picks for the Peach Bowl.

Capital One Orange Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 30
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
4 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Florida State vs. Ohio State
Schlabach: Florida State vs. Ohio State

With both ESPN writers dropping Florida State out of their playoff picks, the bowl projections now push Florida State down into the Orange Bowl. For Bonagura, the Seminoles’ drop knocked out Duke, while for Schlabach it knocked out Miami. Both writers agree that Ohio State will end up in the Orange Bowl if things continue trending the way they are, despite the Buckeyes’ big win on Saturday night. Interesting, to say the least.

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

Monday, Jan. 1
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
1 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: USC vs. Penn State
Schlabach: USC vs. Fresno State

Both ESPN writers had Washington penciled into the VRBO Fiesta Bowl in their bowl projections last week, but with both elevating Washington to playoff spots this week, USC falls into the Fiesta Bowl slot for both. Penn State remains Bonagura’s pick for an opponent, while Schlabach has swapped out Tulane for Fresno State as the most impressive Group of Five team currently.

Remaining Bowl Projections:

Saturday, Dec. 16
Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Toledo vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Eastern Michigan vs. Liberty

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Florida A&M vs. North Carolina Central
Schlabach: Florida A&M vs. North Carolina Central

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Georgia State
Schlabach: Louisiana Tech vs. Marshall

Cure Bowl
Exploria Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Coastal Carolina vs. Middle Tennessee State
Schlabach: Appalachian State vs. South Florida

New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Army vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Cal vs. Wyoming

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Arizona vs. Air Force
Schlabach: UCLA vs. Air Force

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: BYU vs. Colorado
Schlabach: BYU vs. Arizona

Monday, Dec. 18
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Navy vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Florida International vs. Georgia State

Tuesday, Dec. 19
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Troy vs. UTSA
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Tulsa

Thursday, Dec. 21
RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Rice vs. Appalachian State
Schlabach: Temple vs. Georgia Southern

Friday, Dec. 22
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
6:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Louisiana vs. Auburn
Schlabach: Army vs. Auburn

Saturday, Dec. 23
Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: South Carolina vs. Cal
Schlabach: South Carolina vs. Tulane

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: South Alabama vs. New Mexico State
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Central Michigan

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: San Diego State vs. Navy
Schlabach: West Virginia vs. North Texas

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Ohio vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Ball State vs. San Diego State

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
7 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Texas State vs. South Florida
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Toledo

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Rutgers vs. Utah
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. Colorado

EasyPost Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
10:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Tulane vs. Wyoming
Schlabach: Rice vs. UNLV

Tuesday, Dec. 26
Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia Southern vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Ohio

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Marshall vs. Arkansas
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. Illinois

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Cincinnati
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. UCF

Wednesday, Dec. 27
Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Memphis

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Florida

Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Miami vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Duke vs. Washington State

TaxAct Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: TCU vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Missouri
(FUN FACT: There were 11 instances this week in the bowl projections where both Bonagura and Schlabach penciled in the same team to the same bowl, excluding the New Year’s Six bowls.)

Thursday, Dec. 28
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: NC State vs. SMU
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. SMU

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Syracuse vs. Illinois
Schlabach: NC State vs. Rutgers

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. UCF
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Kansas State

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Washington State
Schlabach: Oklahoma vs. Utah

Friday, Dec. 29
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Duke vs. Florida
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Texas A&M

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Clemson vs. UCLA
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. Oregon State

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Missouri
Schlabach: TCU vs. Kentucky

Saturday, Dec. 30
TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
2 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Maryland vs. Ole Miss

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m.
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Miami (Ohio) vs. Boise State

Monday, Jan. 1
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN2 and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Maryland vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Miami vs. Tennessee

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
1 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. LSU
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Alabama

There you have it, all the bowl projections following the Week 4 action. Clearly there will still be plenty of movement in the coming weeks as the conference pecking orders become more clear and the bowl ties, especially to the New Year’s Six games, begin to take shape. Check back next week after another full weeked of college football action to see how the bowl projections have changed.