Predicting the win total ceiling, floor for UCLA in 2024
The conference and head coach will look different in Los Angeles this upcoming football season as UCLA starts the DeShaun Foster era in the Big Ten. With former head coach Chip Kelly departing from the program and the Bruins joining the Big Ten conference alongside USC, Oregon, and Washington from the Pac-12.
Being a first-year head coach at a new program and overall in college football always comes with challenges. Challenges that are made even harder when joining one of the toughest conferences in the country.
With that in mind, On3’s Andy Staples and Cody Bellaire broke down what the best and worst case season would look like for the Bruins in year one under Deshaun Foster.
Ceiling: 6-6
A strong performance in their-non conference schedule and a few upset victories in the Big Ten could potentially push the Bruins to bowl contention this upcoming season. Which will be likely fueled by their offense that adds playcalling mastermind Eric Bieniemy and returns key players like Ethan Garbers, last year’s leading wideouts Logan Loya and J.Michael Sturdivant, and their entire offensive line.
There’s no doubt a .500 season will be tough for the Bruins to achieve, but Staples believes that their new head coach could be laying a foundation for a positive future moving forward.
“Now I will say this about DeShaun Foster that does bode well for him going forward if he can make it through this year,” Staples said. “They are really embracing high school recruiting, in a way that Chip Kelly obviously never did. It’s very similar to what Jim Mora was doing at UCLA and Jim Mora got dudes there, like it is possible to get dudes at UCLA and I think that’s DeShaun Foster ultimately.”
Floor: 3-7
Despite what UCLA returns offensively, they did get decimated defensively with several departures like leading tackler Darius Muasau and starters like Kamari Ramsey, John Humphrey, and Gabriel Murphy.
And even though the Bruins retaining a large chunk of their defensive staff following the departure of defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn, their tough schedule isn’t doing them any favors. Highlighted by trips to LSU, Penn State, Washington, and Nebraska and home games against Oregon, USC, and Iowa.
“This UCLA roster has a lot of work to do, specifically on the defense. It’s brutal,” Bellaire said. “They lost a lot of bodies on that side of the ball … I just have a hard time thinking that kind of production on defense can be replaced in just one year. I’m sure this defense as a whole will be ready for the Big Ten in year one, I just don’t see it.”
“Even if Bieniemy is able to get the offense rolling and the defense can just bend and not break, I still think they lose four of their six road games and then drop another to Oregon or USC,” Bellaire added. “It’s a tough draw on a new head coach for sure.”