Predicting the win total ceiling, floor for Mississippi State in 2024
The 2024 football season will mark the start of the Jeff Lebby era in Starkville, with the longtime offensive coordinator making his head coaching debut this season as he’ll look to set a new standard at Mississippi State.
Like most head coaching jobs that become available following a head coach being fired during the season, there’s no question that there’s plenty of work to be done for the Bulldogs. Not to mention that the SEC gets stronger this upcoming season with the additions of Texas and Oklahoma along with stakes increasing with the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff.
Expectations are tempered for Mississippi State this upcoming season with a brand new coaching staff and a roster of fresh faces that will take on what most believe is the toughest conference in college football. But On3’s Andy Staples and Cody Bellaire spoke about what the best and worst possible version of the 2024 season would look like for the Bulldogs.
CEILING: 7-5
It’s no secret that Mississippi State’s schedule is not doing Lebby any favors in year one with Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, and Ole Miss representing the Bulldogs’ conference road opponents. But Staples and Bellaire believe that an undefeated record against MSU’s non-conference opponents could set the team up to potentially knock off a few SEC teams and slide into bowl contention.
“I think 6-6 or 7-5 is your best-case scenario, you can go undefeated in the non-con … So you may have wins in the non-con and you’ve got to win two in the SEC,” Staples said. “Florida, we don’t know what they’re going to be. Arkansas, we don’t know what they’re going to be. Everybody else is really tough, but if (Texas) A&M is not on the high side of what we thought then you’ve got a shot.”
“I think, to your point, if Mississippi State’s able to do what you said and go to a bowl and win that bowl, I would count that as a huge success for Lebby in year one,” Bellaire added.
Wins over Eastern Kentucky, Arizona State, Toledo, and UMass along with a few victories over other SEC teams entering the season with uncertainty could be the difference between a winning and losing season for the Bulldogs.
FLOOR: 3-9
“I have the floor for this team being three wins, it (the schedule) is brutal. It is absolutely brutal plus you’re bringing in a new head coach, you’re bringing in a new starter at quarterback in Blake Shapen at Baylor. He had some bright moments, but wasn’t necessarily this big game-changer for that offense,” Bellaire said. “The o-line is in rough shape, the defense has some holes in it. And I tell you what, I like Lebby, and I think he’s going to get the offense figured out. But it’s going to take some time.”
Both Bellaire and Staples are a fan of Lebby’s offensive prowess, but are not as confident in Mississippi State’s personnel being able to execute his scheme at the highest level compared to the rest of the SEC.
All in all the Bulldogs lost 27 players to the transfer portal this offseason and brought in 18 in return, making it fascinating to see what Lebby’s first season at the helm looks like ahead of a challenging schedule with tremendous upside.