Predicting the win total ceiling, floor for Northwestern in 2024
Northwestern was a surprise during the season last year after an offseason story could’ve very easily derailed it from the start. Instead, David Braun is now the full-fledged head coach after finding such success as the interim.
On Monday, On3’s Andy Staples and Cody Bellaire examined the Big Ten, including Northwestern, in regards to the ceilings and floors for the teams in the conference. As for the Wildcats, Staples credited Braun for his work under his unexpected circumstances from last year, even if it happened during the course of an easier schedule.
“Northwestern went 8-5 last year in David Braun’s first year. Obviously, the situation he got thrown into was terrible – they fire Pat Fitzgerald right before the season starts, he’s just basically drinking through the firehose the entire time,” Staples recalled.
“They were the tough-out,” said Staples. “They win six of eight in one-score games. If you look at their schedule, it was, much like the Rutgers one this year, not very challenging.”
Bellaire agreed on the efforts by Braun and the Wildcats to finish far above expectations in 2023. However, in 2024, they’re going to have to deal with some changes to the roster from last year’s team, especially when it comes to a query at quarterback.
“They bring a lot of pieces back to a pretty good, quality roster. The leading rusher comes back in Cam Porter. You lose your leading receiver in Cam Johnson to the league but you still have guys like Bryce Kirtz and A.J. Henning coming back. I like the linebacker corps on defense, the front seven is generally solid,” noted Bellaire. “Three of your biggest losses on the defensive side are losing your leading tackler in Bryce Gallagher to the league. You have two big transfer portal losses in the secondary in Rod Heard to Notre Dame and Garnett Hollis Jr. to West Virginia, who were both top-five in tackles last year for them.”
“The biggest question to me if you’re looking at Northwestern is who the hell is going to be the starter at quarterback?” Bellaire asked. “They bring in Mike Wright from Vandy and Mississippi State. Ryan Hilinski is back for what feels like his 14th season and Jack Lausch is there too to make a three-man race. No matter who wins it, I just don’t know if I love what this offense looks like going into this season.”
Both Staples and Bellaire also had concerns about this year’s slate of games. It’s not the worst path of anyone in the league but it’s certainly not straightforward either, especially compared to last season.
“It gets considerably more challenging this year,” Staples said. “This is a case where a team could be better but not have a better record.”
“You mentioned the schedule, Andy. It’s not very favorable,” Bellaire concurred. “It’s not a nightmare but it just doesn’t look good for me.”
Ceiling: 8-4
For Bellaire, his ceiling for Northwestern is another eight-win finish at 8-4. He sees around five or so wins when he looks at the schedule to begin with. From there, it’s just a matter of if they can surprise another few opponents in order to reach that height.
“You get Purdue, Indiana, and Maryland, which are all winnable. I think you beat those three you mentioned. I think you beat Eastern Illinois, Miami (OH). You might lose the rest of your conference games and Duke. But I think, inversely, this could be a team that goes 8-4?” Bellaire said. “I think if they’re able to get some steady quarterback play? This is a team that might shock Duke in Week 2. Then maybe you get an extra win at Wisconsin at home, maybe you get Illinois at home? I think those four losses might just be to Washington, Ohio State, Michigan, and Iowa.”
“If those 50/50s go your way, you feel amazing if you’re Northwestern,” said Bellaire.
Floor: 4-8 or 5-7
As for the negative side, Staples and Bellaire had the floor as a four or five-win season. That’s with Staples being optimistic too considering how much he appreciated the job that Braun did last fall.
“I’ve got it at 4-8 just because I was so encouraged by the way Braun took over that situation and handled it that I kind of just believe in him now. I realize it’s a small sample size but that’s as bad of a situation as you can take over,” said Staples. “A team coming off a 1-11 record that fires its head coach two months before the season starts. You’re now the head coach, you didn’t have a chance to make the staff your own at all. You took what you were given, you went 7-5, and you won a bowl game. Like, I’m going to give you the benefit of the doubt next year.”
“I have them at 5-7,” Bellaire added. “That’s the floor for me is 5-7.”
With their win in the Las Vegas Bowl over Utah, Northwestern capped off their best finish since 2018 and won four more games then their previous two years combined. Now, heading into Braun’s first official year, expecting somewhere around the same could be on the table up in Evanston.