FC: The Athletic details what a 12 team playoff would look like this year…

[Midnighter]

Thought I would be more excited for this…thoughts?

————

Though not officially finalized, the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff is expected to debut with the 2024 season. Each week for the rest of the season, The Athletic will test drive the proposed format using the CFP committee’s latest Top 25 rankings.

Here’s how the bracket would be seeded and the site locations determined using the committee’s Nov. 29 rankings and a 2024-25 calendar. Note: The Orange and Cotton Bowls were previously scheduled to host the 2024-25 semifinals and Atlanta was selected as the national championship game.

Top four seeds (first-round byes):

1. Georgia (SEC champion)
2. Michigan (Big Ten champion)
3. TCU (Big 12 champion)
4. USC (Pac-12 champion)

Under the CFP board’s approved model, the top four seeds will be reserved for the four highest-ranked conference champions. For our purposes, we’re designating each conference’s top-ranked team as its champion. That means No. 1 Georgia (SEC), No. 2 Michigan (Big Ten), No. 3 TCU (Big 12) and No. 4 USC (Pac-12) would get a bye into the quarterfinals.

Nos. 5-12 seeds:

5. Ohio State (at large)
6. Alabama (at large)
7. Tennessee (at large)
8. Penn State (at large)
9. Clemson (ACC champion)
10. Kansas State (at large)
11. Utah (at large)
12. Tulane (AAC champion)

Under the same model, the six highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed berths along with the six highest-ranked at-large teams. Were the season to end today, the fifth- and sixth-highest-ranked conference champions would be No. 9 Clemson (ACC) and No. 18 Tulane (AAC).

Joining them in the field would be the six highest-ranked remaining teams: No. 5 Ohio State, No. 6 Alabama, No. 7 Tennessee, No. 8 Penn State, No. 10 Kansas State and No. 11 Utah.

The CFP schedule​

All times Eastern.

First round​

Friday, Dec. 13

• No. 11 Utah at No. 6 Alabama, 7:30 p.m.

Saturday, Dec. 14

• No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Ohio State, noon
• No. 10 Kansas State at No. 7 Tennessee, 4 p.m.
• No. 9 Clemson at No. 8 Penn State, 8 p.m.

The four first-round games will be played on the campuses of the No. 5-8 seeds over the third weekend in December. Which games get placed in which slots would likely be determined by ESPN. A Saturday night White Out at Penn State would be quite appealing.

Quarterfinals​

Tuesday, Dec. 31

• Peach Bowl: No. 4 USC vs. Ohio State-Tulane winner, 7:30 p.m.

Wednesday, Jan 1

• Fiesta Bowl: No. 3 TCU vs. Alabama-Utah winner, 1 p.m.
• Rose Bowl: No. 2 Michigan vs. Tennessee-Kansas State winner, 5 p.m.
• Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Georgia vs. Penn State-Clemson winner, 8:45 p.m.

It is expected the current New Year’s Six bowls will rotate hosting the quarterfinals and semifinals, with a goal of playing most quarterfinals on New Year’s Day. And the CFP board said in its announcement the top four seeds will be assigned “in consideration of current contract bowl relationships.”

Using those parameters, No. 1 Georgia would go to the SEC’s contract bowl, the Sugar Bowl, and No. 2 Michigan to the Rose Bowl as Big Ten champion. The Peach and Fiesta bowls do not have conference partners, but No. 3 TCU would likely go to the Fiesta Bowl because a potential Alabama matchup in Atlanta could be seen as a disadvantage.

Semifinals​

Thursday, Jan. 9

• Cotton Bowl: No. 2 Michigan/No. 7 Tennessee/No. 10 Kansas State vs. No. 3 TCU/No. 6 Alabama/No. 11 Utah, 7:30 p.m.

Friday, Jan. 10

• Orange Bowl: No. 1 Georgia/No. 8 Penn State/No. 9 Clemson vs. No. 4 USC/No. 5 Ohio State/No. 12 Tulane, 7:30 p.m.

The commissioners have not officially determined the dates of the semifinals, but they would have to be at least a week later than the quarterfinals, and the CFP would avoid scheduling them opposite the NFL’s Wild Card weekend (Jan. 11-13). That likely means placing one Thursday night and the other Friday night.


In the CFP board’s announcement, it said, “the higher seeds would receive preferential placement in the Playoff semifinal games.” That would depend on which teams win their quarterfinals, but if No. 1 Georgia advanced, Miami is closer than Arlington.

Monday, Jan. 20

• National championship game in Atlanta, 7:30 p.m.

The title game is expected to remain Monday night, as the NFL’s Divisional Round has a hold on potential weekend dates. The CFP had already selected Atlanta as its site for the 2025 national championship game, and it is expected to remain so even though the game will now likely be played two weeks later than planned.

And here’s how we predict the tournament would unfold in the quarterfinals and beyond:

• No. 8 Penn State beats No. 9 Clemson
• No. 5 Ohio State beats No. 12 Tulane
• No. 6 Alabama beats No. 11 Utah
• No. 10 Kansas State beats No. 7 Tennessee
• No. 1 Georgia beats No. 8 Penn State
• No. 4 USC beats No. 5 Ohio State
• No. 6 Alabama beats No. 3 TCU
• No. 2 Michigan beats No. 10 Kansas State
• No. 1 Georgia beats No. 4 USC
• No. 2 Michigan beats No. 6 Alabama
• No. 1 Georgia beats No. 2 Michigan

Check out last week’s projection here.

(Illustration: Sean Reilly / The Athletic; photos: Aaron J. Thornton, Kiyoshi Mio, Steven Limentani / Getty Images)

 

[VaDave4PSU]

Just spitballing...

1. Season moves up. Week 0 becomes week 1.
2. Ccgs Thanksgiving weekend. Are the winners auto bid? Imagine Purdue beating Michigan and becoming a 4 seed with a bye. I kinda like it, but crazy. In this scenario, they probably need another ccg upset.
3. Opening round the current ccg weekend. Round of 8 SHOULD be at top 4 seeds home field, otherwise they have no advantage really (all teams would have a week off unless you lost a ccg and then played round of 12). Gets another home game with many fans involved.
4. This gets the season on track with the semis at traditional bowl sites the current weekends then finishing the 9-10 days after.

 

[Tom McAndrew]

Thought I would be more excited for this…thoughts?

Only time will tell, but it would not surprise me if most years it ends up being the #1 playing the #2.

It certainly will be better for teams/fans of 5 thru 12, as currently they are excluded. The 8/9 game could be a good one, and the 7/10 game might be a good one. The 5/12 and the 6/11 matchups are unlikely to be all that competitive, though I'm sure there will be exceptions.

The other thing that stuck out to me was the timeframe. They have the opening rounds being played Dec. 13/14, and the Championship not taking place until Jan. 20. Preseason starts in early August, so for the two teams in the championship, that's a really long season.

 

[FTLPSU]

We would beat Clemson and get destroyed by Georgia.

 

[wbcbus]

I'm still excited for it and think it'll be fun. However, I always thought 8 should be the number. Call me goldilocks, but 4 seemed too exclusive and 12 involves teams too mediocre. 5 conference champs, top non-power 5 team, and 2 at-large would've been plenty and kept it a week shorter.

Would've had something like:

Tulane v Georgia
TCU v Ohio State
USC v. Clemson
Alabama v Michigan

 

[PSUJam]

I'm still excited for it and think it'll be fun. However, I always thought 8 should be the number. Call me goldilocks, but 4 seemed too exclusive and 12 involves teams too mediocre. 5 conference champs, top non-power 5 team, and 2 at-large would've been plenty and kept it a week shorter.

Would've had something like:

Tulane v Georgia
TCU v Ohio State
USC v. Clemson
Alabama v Michigan

 

[WestSideLion]

I'm still excited for it and think it'll be fun. However, I always thought 8 should be the number. Call me goldilocks, but 4 seemed too exclusive and 12 involves teams too mediocre. 5 conference champs, top non-power 5 team, and 2 at-large would've been plenty and kept it a week shorter.

Would've had something like:

Tulane v Georgia
TCU v Ohio State
USC v. Clemson
Alabama v Michigan

Your bracket is why it went to 12. No way do the power schools let Tulane into a field of 8 at the expense of a program capable of winning a game or two.

 

[Nits1989]

Looks exciting. Could it have some effects on recruiting? PSU beats Clemson and loses to Georgia. Ohio State beats Tulane and loses to USC. Allows more than 4 teams in the playoff and breaks up the perceived monopoly of Alabama, Georgia, Clemson and Ohio State. I think it could be helpful at leveling the playing field a bit.

 

[psuro]

Looks exciting. Could it have some effects on recruiting? PSU beats Clemson and loses to Georgia. Ohio State beats Tulane and loses to USC. Allows more than 4 teams in the playoff and breaks up the perceived monopoly of Alabama, Georgia, Clemson and Ohio State. I think it could be helpful at leveling the playing field a bit.

Its college football. Everthing affeccs recruiting.

 

[psuro]

So, Clemson at PSU in December for an 8 PM kick?

 

[Bkmtnittany1]

Any 12 team playoff without ND is a joke!!

 

[NewEra 2014]

Thanks for posting. While this is an interesting setup for a CFB postseason, it leads me to believe that conference championship games and a 12-team playoff are incompatible. First of all, the CCG delays the true playoff for yet another week, which the sport doesn't need.

A conference championship game also gives a team like Purdue a shot at the playoff in a conference with unbalanced divisions, or it presents the potential for a regular season rematch in an OSU-Michigan situation.
Let's assume OSU and Michigan have a rematch this weekend instead of Purdue-Michigan, and this time OSU wins. Then both teams go into the 12-team playoff anyway, just with different seedings. But we have burned yet another week on the calendar to see that rematch.

I have no doubt that college football will screw up the 12-team playoff just like they have screwed up the postseason ever since the BCS started.

 

[FrontierLion]

I'm still excited for it and think it'll be fun. However, I always thought 8 should be the number. Call me goldilocks, but 4 seemed too exclusive and 12 involves teams too mediocre. 5 conference champs, top non-power 5 team, and 2 at-large would've been plenty and kept it a week shorter.

Would've had something like:

Tulane v Georgia
TCU v Ohio State
USC v. Clemson
Alabama v Michigan

I'll be excited for this as well. After seeing Alabama ranked above Tennessee in the most recent rankings - after winning a head-to-head - the expanded playoff can't come soon enough for me. Let them settle it on the field.

This bracket also tells me there's no need for conference championship games anymore. Let's take Michigan for instance. Win or lose, they're in the playoffs. Why would I risk injury to any of my elite guys playing against Purdue? So I can boast an irrelevant B1G championship season? At this point, how much does a B1G championship mean? The playoff is now more important. I'd eliminate the championship games, but still award a conference champion based on formulas and tie-breakers they've used in the past.

 

[bbrown]

So, Clemson at PSU in December for an 8 PM kick?

Yep lots of "adjustments" would have to be made to the Stadium. Heck they had bathrooms and some concession standx closed for the MD game.

 

[Midnighter]

I'll be excited for this as well. After seeing Alabama ranked above Tennessee in the most recent rankings - after winning a head-to-head - the expanded playoff can't come soon enough for me. Let them settle it on the field.

This bracket also tells me there's no need for conference championship games anymore. Let's take Michigan for instance. Win or lose, they're in the playoffs. Why would I risk injury to any of my elite guys playing against Purdue? So I can boast an irrelevant B1G championship season? At this point, how much does a B1G championship mean? The playoff is now more important. I'd eliminate the championship games, but still award a conference champion based on formulas and tie-breakers they've used in the past.

It probably means a lot to the B1G and Indianapolis....

 

[Woodpecker]

Can The Beave handle a December 15th game?

BTW, I asked this in the game thread but was the field used for other events this fall? It seemed to be a little ratty for only 6 games being previously played on it. Or is that simply a by-product of a special strain of grass that is used? Does Carl Spackler still post?

 

[CDLionFL]

Can The Beave handle a December 15th game?

BTW, I asked this in the game thread but was the field used for other events this fall? It seemed to be a little ratty for only 6 games being previously played on it. Or is that simply a by-product of a special strain of grass that is used? Does Carl Spackler still post?

PSU played Illinois on December 19, 2020. Of course, there were very little fans so they likely winterized the parts of the stadium that they knew wouldn't get used.

 

[ApexLion]

I'm willing to bet once a 12-game playoff goes into effect that you will basically see the same 12 (give or take 1 or 2 up and comers) every year and the seeds will be very similar. But, its going to help PSU, LSU and ND the most.

 

[Midnighter]

I'm willing to bet once a 12-game playoff goes into effect that you will basically see the same 12 (give or take 1 or 2 up and comers) every year and the seeds will be very similar. But, its going to help PSU, LSU and ND the most.

And Oregon, who will likely be the king of the Pac 12 if they don't join the B1G.

 

[Moogy]

Thought I would be more excited for this…thoughts?

————

Though not officially finalized, the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff is expected to debut with the 2024 season. Each week for the rest of the season, The Athletic will test drive the proposed format using the CFP committee’s latest Top 25 rankings.

Here’s how the bracket would be seeded and the site locations determined using the committee’s Nov. 29 rankings and a 2024-25 calendar. Note: The Orange and Cotton Bowls were previously scheduled to host the 2024-25 semifinals and Atlanta was selected as the national championship game.

Top four seeds (first-round byes):

1. Georgia (SEC champion)
2. Michigan (Big Ten champion)
3. TCU (Big 12 champion)
4. USC (Pac-12 champion)

Under the CFP board’s approved model, the top four seeds will be reserved for the four highest-ranked conference champions. For our purposes, we’re designating each conference’s top-ranked team as its champion. That means No. 1 Georgia (SEC), No. 2 Michigan (Big Ten), No. 3 TCU (Big 12) and No. 4 USC (Pac-12) would get a bye into the quarterfinals.

Nos. 5-12 seeds:

5. Ohio State (at large)
6. Alabama (at large)
7. Tennessee (at large)
8. Penn State (at large)
9. Clemson (ACC champion)
10. Kansas State (at large)
11. Utah (at large)
12. Tulane (AAC champion)

Under the same model, the six highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed berths along with the six highest-ranked at-large teams. Were the season to end today, the fifth- and sixth-highest-ranked conference champions would be No. 9 Clemson (ACC) and No. 18 Tulane (AAC).

Joining them in the field would be the six highest-ranked remaining teams: No. 5 Ohio State, No. 6 Alabama, No. 7 Tennessee, No. 8 Penn State, No. 10 Kansas State and No. 11 Utah.

The CFP schedule​

All times Eastern.

First round​

Friday, Dec. 13

• No. 11 Utah at No. 6 Alabama, 7:30 p.m.

Saturday, Dec. 14

• No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Ohio State, noon
• No. 10 Kansas State at No. 7 Tennessee, 4 p.m.
• No. 9 Clemson at No. 8 Penn State, 8 p.m.

The four first-round games will be played on the campuses of the No. 5-8 seeds over the third weekend in December. Which games get placed in which slots would likely be determined by ESPN. A Saturday night White Out at Penn State would be quite appealing.

Quarterfinals​

Tuesday, Dec. 31

• Peach Bowl: No. 4 USC vs. Ohio State-Tulane winner, 7:30 p.m.

Wednesday, Jan 1

• Fiesta Bowl: No. 3 TCU vs. Alabama-Utah winner, 1 p.m.
• Rose Bowl: No. 2 Michigan vs. Tennessee-Kansas State winner, 5 p.m.
• Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Georgia vs. Penn State-Clemson winner, 8:45 p.m.

It is expected the current New Year’s Six bowls will rotate hosting the quarterfinals and semifinals, with a goal of playing most quarterfinals on New Year’s Day. And the CFP board said in its announcement the top four seeds will be assigned “in consideration of current contract bowl relationships.”

Using those parameters, No. 1 Georgia would go to the SEC’s contract bowl, the Sugar Bowl, and No. 2 Michigan to the Rose Bowl as Big Ten champion. The Peach and Fiesta bowls do not have conference partners, but No. 3 TCU would likely go to the Fiesta Bowl because a potential Alabama matchup in Atlanta could be seen as a disadvantage.

Semifinals​

Thursday, Jan. 9

• Cotton Bowl: No. 2 Michigan/No. 7 Tennessee/No. 10 Kansas State vs. No. 3 TCU/No. 6 Alabama/No. 11 Utah, 7:30 p.m.

Friday, Jan. 10

• Orange Bowl: No. 1 Georgia/No. 8 Penn State/No. 9 Clemson vs. No. 4 USC/No. 5 Ohio State/No. 12 Tulane, 7:30 p.m.

The commissioners have not officially determined the dates of the semifinals, but they would have to be at least a week later than the quarterfinals, and the CFP would avoid scheduling them opposite the NFL’s Wild Card weekend (Jan. 11-13). That likely means placing one Thursday night and the other Friday night.


In the CFP board’s announcement, it said, “the higher seeds would receive preferential placement in the Playoff semifinal games.” That would depend on which teams win their quarterfinals, but if No. 1 Georgia advanced, Miami is closer than Arlington.

Monday, Jan. 20

• National championship game in Atlanta, 7:30 p.m.

The title game is expected to remain Monday night, as the NFL’s Divisional Round has a hold on potential weekend dates. The CFP had already selected Atlanta as its site for the 2025 national championship game, and it is expected to remain so even though the game will now likely be played two weeks later than planned.

And here’s how we predict the tournament would unfold in the quarterfinals and beyond:

• No. 8 Penn State beats No. 9 Clemson
• No. 5 Ohio State beats No. 12 Tulane
• No. 6 Alabama beats No. 11 Utah
• No. 10 Kansas State beats No. 7 Tennessee
• No. 1 Georgia beats No. 8 Penn State
• No. 4 USC beats No. 5 Ohio State
• No. 6 Alabama beats No. 3 TCU
• No. 2 Michigan beats No. 10 Kansas State
• No. 1 Georgia beats No. 4 USC
• No. 2 Michigan beats No. 6 Alabama
• No. 1 Georgia beats No. 2 Michigan

Check out last week’s projection here.

(Illustration: Sean Reilly / The Athletic; photos: Aaron J. Thornton, Kiyoshi Mio, Steven Limentani / Getty Images)

That's obviously better than the current nonsense ... but I really want there to be more diversity in terms of the teams selected. Conference champs, from non-Power 5 conferences, for example. This stupid segregation of some FBS schools (conferences) from others needs to go. It also doesn't matter to me if someone thinks those non-power-5 champs will get slaughtered each year. Give them the opportunity. That's how we'll potentially build other programs, and be able to break through this artificial "Power 5" monopoly they've created.

 

[bbrown]

Can The Beave handle a December 15th game?

BTW, I asked this in the game thread but was the field used for other events this fall? It seemed to be a little ratty for only 6 games being previously played on it. Or is that simply a by-product of a special strain of grass that is used? Does Carl Spackler still post?

I dont think it can with its current set up. They had bathrooms and a few concession stands closed for the MD game.
And they always seemed to have all but 1 restroom and concession stand closed in the North upper deck for the last game in previous years.
FWIW I thought the field has looked that way the past couple of years.

 

[ApexLion]

And Oregon, who will likely be the king of the Pac 12 if they don't join the B1G.

top 10 in $$$ will be in there most years

 

[NoSoup4U]

Any 12 team playoff without ND is a joke!!

Well ND is a joke so there is that

 

[psuno1]

Any 12 team playoff without ND is a joke!!

ND is a four loss team.

 

[PSU87]

Thanks for posting. While this is an interesting setup for a CFB postseason, it leads me to believe that conference championship games and a 12-team playoff are incompatible. First of all, the CCG delays the true playoff for yet another week, which the sport doesn't need.

A conference championship game also gives a team like Purdue a shot at the playoff in a conference with unbalanced divisions, or it presents the potential for a regular season rematch in an OSU-Michigan situation.
Let's assume OSU and Michigan have a rematch this weekend instead of Purdue-Michigan, and this time OSU wins. Then both teams go into the 12-team playoff anyway, just with different seedings. But we have burned yet another week on the calendar to see that rematch.

I have no doubt that college football will screw up the 12-team playoff just like they have screwed up the postseason ever since the BCS started.

I don't think it gives a team like Purdue a shot at the playoffs. They would still have to be ranked in the top 4 and even if they beat Michigan they won't be.

There are no automatic bids for conference champs in that model. The conference Champs in the playoff are there because they are ranked top 4....not because they are conference champs

 

[Midnighter]

I don't think it gives a team like Purdue a shot at the playoffs. They would still have to be ranked in the top 4 and even if they beat Michigan they won't be.

There are no automatic bids for conference champs in that model. The conference Champs in the playoff are there because they are ranked top 4....not because they are conference champs

I also believe this is the ‘agreed upon’ format we’ll see once it starts (unless they change something).

Also, I think if Purdue beats Michigan in this format they would be in the CFP. The first item in the terms of the agreement says:

The 12 teams will be the six conference champions ranked highest by the selection committee (no minimum ranking requirement), plus the six highest ranked teams not included among the six highest ranked conference champions.

I read that as all conference champs are in, then the six highest ranked teams that follow, which makes winning the conference championship really, really important in this playoff whereas now, it's not necessary.

 

[psuro]

I'm willing to bet once a 12-game playoff goes into effect that you will basically see the same 12 (give or take 1 or 2 up and comers) every year and the seeds will be very similar. But, its going to help PSU, LSU and ND the most.

Not sure about that - I think there has been a lot more variety from 5-12 than there has been 1-4 during the CFP era. The "original" CFP era.

 

[Midnighter]

Not sure about that - I think there has been a lot more variety from 5-12 than there has been 1-4 during the CFP era. The "original" CFP era.

Going back to 2000, only these teams have won a NC:

Alabama
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Florida State
Clemson
Auburn
LSU
Southern Cal
Florida
Texas
Georgia
Miami, FL

These programs also have a chance to win one IMO:

Michigan
Penn State
Oregon
Texas A&M
TCU
Notre Dame

BYU, Nebraska, Washington, and Colorado have all won an NC but likely won't again.

 

[PSU Mike]

Still trying to wrap my head around KSU at #10 when they lost to #18 and #20 and didn’t beat a team receiving a single vote in the polls. What a weird year.

 

[psuro]

Going back to 2000, only these teams have won a NC:

Alabama
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Florida State
Clemson
Auburn
LSU
Southern Cal
Florida
Texas
Georgia
Miami, FL

These programs also have a chance to win one IMO:

Michigan
Penn State
Oregon
Texas A&M
TCU
Notre Dame

BYU, Nebraska, Washington, and Colorado have all won an NC but likely won't again.

OK - but that was not the quesion or the point.

What are the teams that have placed 5-12 since the start of the CFP? How many? Is it the ame 8 programs?

 

[Bkmtnittany1]

ND is a four loss team.

You do know I am joking correct?

 

[Midnighter]

OK - but that was not the quesion or the point.

What are the teams that have placed 5-12 since the start of the CFP? How many? Is it the ame 8 programs?

I’ll check and get back to you. My guess is you’ll see a lot of the teams listed above…

 

[BrucePa]

The brackets as proposed by The Athletic would result in Georgia, Ohio State, Alabama, and Michigan.

Nothing to see here.

 

[psuno1]

You do know I am joking correct?

I just wanted to point it out. Clemson with jump PSU as well when they win the ACC then PSU would be playing @Clemson in a 12 team playoff.