Houston will not reach win total from last year, Phil Steele says

Houston football faces quite a challenge in year one of Big 12 play. The Cougars have put strong teams on the field the last two years, but now that they’re in a bit of a rebuild and upgrading to the Big 12, the 2023 season could result in a regression. In fact, the foremost authority in the college football magazine business, Phil Steele, doubts Houston can win more games than they did a year ago.

Steele wrote that “Holgorsen finally had his first stable year” with the Cougars in 2021, returning most of their starters and finishing a tremendous 12-2 with an eleven-game winning streak sandwiched in between their only two losses — to Texas Tech and Cincinnati, who made the College Football Playoff that year. Steele says he expected a strong year and a breakthrough for Holgorsen at Houston, but admits they surpassed even his own expectations.

Ahead of the 2022 season, Phil Steele expected a step back for the Cougars despite them being picked to win the AAC on the heels of their terrific ’21 campaign. Houston did not sustain the level of success they reached the prior year and missed the AAC title game in their final year with the league. However, they still finished a respectable 8-5.

As for this coming year, here is Steele’s brief summary:

“Houston moves from the AAC to the Big 12, which head coach Dana Holgorsen already experienced with West Virginia back in 2012. His WVU teams went from 10-3 Big East to 7-6 and 4-8 in his first two in the Big 12 but he feels he is better equipped this time. Houston has been to 15 bowls in the last 18 years. They were +76 yards-per-game vs. AAC foes.”

After rattling off those numbers, Steele revealed that he still expects Houston to struggle with the transition and fail to match the win totals of their previous few seasons. “Holgorsen is a super 20-7 the last two years but probably won’t match last year’s 8 win total with just 12 starters back,” he predicts.

Phil Steele also noted that the Cougars rank No. 103 on his experience chart, which is towards the bottom in the country. Not a great sign for a squad transitioning from a smaller conference to a power five league.

Steele has Houston picked 13th out of 14 in the Big 12. Funny enough, the lone team behind the Cougars is Cincinnati, who Houston faced just two years ago in the AAC title game after both clubs went undefeated in conference play. Now, they’re in a new conference and being picked last.