Predicting Miami football's record in 2023

The first season under coach Mario Cristobal probably didn’t go quite the way Miami football fans would have hoped, with an injury to starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke in the middle of the season contributing to a 5-7 season.

Yet optimism remains high in Coral Gables heading into Year 2. And Hurricanes fans should know pretty early on what kind of year they can expect.

“The big game you circle is Texas A&M at home early,” On3’s JD PicKell said. “To me this is the progress game. This is a great litmus test. I think Miami really could have won this game a year ago at College Station. They didn’t, so woulda, shoulda, coulda.”

Of course, Miami football will be looking to turn that around this time at home.

And the Hurricanes probably need to take advantage of that opportunity, because the rest of the schedule is pretty difficult. Particularly away from home Miami will really be challenged.

“You have road tests at North Carolina, at NC State and at Florida State,” PicKell noted. “NC State and Florida State are back-to-back, so that will be tricky. But you’ve got home tough games against Clemson and against Louisville. Louisville is sneaky.”

So what can Miami football realistically expect from the 2023 campaign? PicKell has an idea.

“For Miami I really believe that six wins is the floor. I think at the very least you improve and you make a bowl game,” he said. “I don’t think you had the personnel last year that you do this year and I think that translates to at least a one-win improvement.

“Now here’s the good news. When I look at Miami I don’t think they’re at a place where they’re relying just solely on the roster. You can have talent, talent is great. I already told you I think talent improves them from what they were a year ago, but talent isn’t what wins you ballgames. It’s talent married with the way you do things. And when I say the way you do things, that means scheme, that means discipline, that means culture. Those are all things that propel your talent and capitalize on your talent and get the most out of that talent, get the most out of that roster.”

In other words, Cristobal has been a bit of a hard-liner with establishing his culture. That can make for a rough transition, but it can pay dividends down the road once it’s fully established.

Miami football should be closer to that in 2023, which is one of the reasons PicKell sees the win total climbing considerably.

“For Miami the prediction for me for them in 2023 is a record of 8-4. So it’s right in line with what Vegas thinks,” PicKell said. “Again, there’s some tricky games on that schedule. But I think 8-4 is realistic. And I also think Tyler Van Dyke goes back to what we saw him being in 2021. That’s what this whole thing is built on. Is Tyler Van Dyke the version that we expect him to be?”

That, coupled with two other questions will go a long way toward answering how Miami football fares in 2023.

“Those are the big question marks,” PicKell said. “Does the wide receiver room step up? Does Tyler Van Dyke continue what e did in ’21 and kind of get past the ’22 hiccup with this new offense under Shannon Dawson? And does the defense hold up their end of the deal? If they do, watch out for Miami in the ACC.”