CBS Sports expert gives six-pack of college football picks for Week 9
On Thursday, CBS Sports college football expert Tom Fornelli released six picks against the spread ahead of Week 9 of the college football season. All eyes are on the Big Ten this week, where three of his six picks take place.
After finishing 4-2 with his picks in Week 8, Fornelli is 28-20 overall.
No. 6 Michigan at No. 8 Michigan State (+4)
The game of the week takes place in East Lansing between the last two remaining unbeaten teams in the Big Ten. The Wolverines enter with a clear strategy of running the ball and trusting their defense to get stops. They’ll face MSU running back Kenneth Walker III, who leads the conference with 997 yards rushing.
“Michigan runs the ball 65.4% of the time, which is the sixth-highest rate in the country,” Fornelli wrote. “It does this because it’s good at running the ball … and not so good at throwing it. Michigan State’s defense has not been great against the run by any stretch, but it’s hard to cover as a road favorite when you run the ball as often as the Wolverines do without offering much in the passing game.”
Final Score Prediction: Michigan 27, Michigan State 24 | Michigan State +4
No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 18 Auburn (Under 66)
Ole Miss is playing in this game, which means the total is insanely high. The Rebels have the top-ranked offense among Power 5 schools thanks to quarterback Matt Corral and a lethal passing attack. The Ole Miss defense has been known to give up its fair share of points as well, but Fornelli picks the under on the Week 9 college football matchup.
“Ole Miss will be on the road against an Auburn defense that ranks 30th in points allowed per possession and has been solid all season long,” he wrote. “The Tigers also have an offense that isn’t spectacular, but they will be able to control the ball, keeping Matt Corral and Co. off the field as much as possible. This isn’t going to be a boring rock fight, but it’s not going to be a shootout, either.”
Final Score Prediction: Auburn 31, Ole Miss 27 | Under 66
Indiana (+5) at Maryland
After entering the year at No. 17 in the AP poll, Indiana now sits at 2-5. But its losses mostly come against good teams, so there is reason to believe the Hoosiers are better than their record. Fornelli believes this is the week they break through for their first conference victory.
“The Terps’ lone Big Ten win was 20-17 over 3-5 Illinois, and they’ve been outscored 151-47 in their last three games against Iowa, Ohio State and Minnesota,” he wrote. “Maryland has also been one of the worst red zone offenses in the country, scoring touchdowns on only 50% of their trips. It’s hard to trust a team that can’t finish drives to cover as a favorite, so I’m not going to.”
Final Score Prediction: Indiana 27, Maryland 24 | Indiana +5
Minnesota at Northwestern (Under 43.5)
This is one of the easiest picks in college football for Week 9. The game pits two of the most challenged offenses in the sport against each other. Minnesota is down to its third-string running back, while Northwestern ranks 117th in the nation averaging just 17.9 points per game. That is a recipe for an ugly game.
“Whether on the ground or in the air, the Wildcats can’t do much of anything,” Fornelli wrote. “They rank 117th in points per possession and 102nd in success rate. They’ve only managed to score on 24.4% of their possessions, which ranks 122nd.”
Final Score Prediction: Minnesota 23, Northwestern 16 | Under 43.5
Kansas at No. 15 Oklahoma State (Over 54.5)
Fresh off of its first loss of the season, Oklahoma State returns home to Stillwater to take on lowly Kansas. The Cowboys have one of their best defenses in recent memory, along with an uncharacteristically pedestrian offense. But they should be able to put up points on the Jayhawks.
“While the Cowboys’ overall numbers haven’t been great, they’ve faced a lot of solid defenses,” Fornelli wrote. “The Kansas defense they’ll face on Saturday is not solid, however; it’s horrible. The Jayhawks pair an offense that ranks 118th nationally in points per possession with a defense that ranks 129th in points allowed per possession.”
Final Score Prediction: Oklahoma State 48, Kansas 17 | Over 54.5
Virginia Tech (+4) at Georgia Tech
Virginia Tech has lost three straight games, but runs into a poor Georgia Tech team. A win here would mean a lot for coach Justin Fuente, who finds himself in hot water.
“This is a must-win for the Hokies, and while the team hasn’t been good, this hasn’t struck me as the kind of situation in which it has quit on its coach,” Fornelli wrote. “If you don’t want to follow me here, that’s fine, but my numbers and my gut tell me this is the right play, and I trust what they’re telling me.”