2024 NASCAR Predictions: Josh Berry vs. John Hunter Nemechek

While John Hunter Nemechek won’t be a NASCAR Cup Series rookie in 2024, he is still among a class of incoming drivers who weren’t here a year ago. He’s not going to be competing for that ROY award, but I think we can judge him against that group of rookies, like Josh Berry, next year.

For a little offseason thought exercise, let’s talk about Berry and Nemechek. These two drivers have a lot of promise, for different reasons. The 2024 NASCAR season will be Berry’s first full-time season in the Cup Series. Nemechek is getting a second chance after relegating himself to the Truck and Xfinity Series.

So, let’s make the case for each driver, and try to come up with some hot takes on next year.

For starters, we can look at this past season in the Xfinity Series where the two battled for an entire year. Nemechek led the series with seven wins and made the Championship 4. Meanwhile, it was a bit of a down year for Berry who didn’t manage a single win during 2023, and came up short of Phoenix.

This past season was meaningful. However, it is hard to judge a driver in the Cup Series based on these Xfinity cars right now. They just don’t drive the same, they shift differently, and there are notable differences.

The good news is that we have some Cup Series races from both of them to help us make this decision, specifically, Next Gen starts.

2024 NASCAR Season: Berry vs. Nemechek

The expectations, just from a team standpoint are a lot different for Josh Berry and John Hunter Nemechek. The 2024 NASCAR season for Stewart-Haas Racing has different expectations than Legacy Motor Club’s season.

In 2023, Berry made 10 starts in the Cup Series. The Next Gen car is unlike the Cup car that Nemechek drove in 2020. In those starts with Hendrick, Berry had two top-10s and a P2 finish to his record. While his later starts in the Legacy car didn’t go as well, P34 at Michigan and P22 at Daytona, he was really solid in his limited time.

Nemechek also drove that Legacy car, on account of Noah Gragson’s suspension. He had a tough day at Homestead to finish P32. Things just don’t work out at times, and that was a case of that.

However, back in 2020, Nemechek had limited success. Front Row Motorsports was deciding what direction to take their organization and a few pairings didn’t work out. At Darlington and Talladega twice, in 2020 – Nemechek had top-10 finishes.

So, what conclusion should we draw? It’s hard to say. I know Nemechek isn’t a rookie, but he more or less is in this case with his limited time in the Next Gen and his break from Cup Series racing full-time.

Being the older driver with a team more established, I expect Josh Berry to have the better 2024 season. I think we could even see him get a win at Richmond or Martinsville with his short-track expertise.

In the first season with Toyota, I think Legacy Motor Club could struggle. Nemechek might just shock me and many others by having an outstanding year in the Cup Series.