Arkansas vs. South Carolina odds: Win probability, final score prediction in SEC Tournament
Arkansas advanced to the second round of the SEC Tournament following their down to the wire, overtime win over Vanderbilt on Wednesday night. As South Carolina now awaits them for their second round matchup in Bridgestone Arena.
Both programs reverse roles from last season’s SEC Tournament, with South Carolina impressing this year earning the No. 5 seed and a first round bye while the Razorbacks dropped to round one as a the No. 12 seed after being the No. 10 seed last season.
The Gamecocks got the best of Arkansas in their matchup during the regular season, but can they do so again in tournament play? Find out the probability, odds, and how to watch Thursday’s SEC showdown below.
Odds for Arkansas vs. South Carolina
South Carolina is a 5.5-point favorite over Arkansas on Thursday according to FanDuel Sportsbook, the same point spread advantage that the Razorbacks had over Vanderbilt on Wednesday following their five-point win. With the Gamecocks having -245 odds on the moneyline and Arkansas at +198 odds if they can win their second round matchup outright and keep up their winning ways.
The point total for the game also sits at an over-under of 143.5. With South Carolina notably boasting the SEC’s best defense holding opponents to 66.4 points per game while the Razorbacks have averaged 93.5 points in their last four games.
Final score predictions for Arkansas vs. South Carolina
BPI Predicted winner: South Carolina
BPI Predicted point differential: 5.9
BPI Win probability (for South Carolina): 72.1 percent
BPI Matchup Quality: 73.9
ESPN’s BPI (Basketball Power Index) very much agrees with FanDuel ahead of Thursday’s second round matchup. Predicting a 5.9-point differential in favor of South Carolina while also giving them a 72.1% chance of eliminating Arkansas from the SEC Tournament.
The BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success, also giving the second round showdown a matchup quality score of 72.1. Making Arkansas and South Carolina’s game a solid matchup, but the 31st ranked game on college basketball’s robust schedule of conference tournament matchups.
KenPom Predicted final score: South Carolina 75, Arkansas 69
KenPom Win probability (for South Carolina): 71 percent
KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball, designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account.
Just like FanDuel and ESPN’s BPI, KenPom also believes that South Carolina will advance to the second round of the SEC tournament. Forecasting a six-point win for the Gamecocks over Arkansas while also giving them 71% chances of secure the win, representing the identical point margin and win percentage KenPom gave Arkansas over Vanderbilt yesterday in their five-point win.
How to watch Arkansas vs. South Carolina
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Channel: SEC Network, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Nashville (TN)
South Carolina bested Arkansas in their regular season matchup on January 20 in Fayetteville with a 77-64 win. With B.J. Mack and Tramon Mark respectively leading their teams in scoring with 18 points each.
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Per usual, South Carolina’s defense came to play in that game holding Arkansas to 37.1% shooting from the field and out-rebounding the Razorbacks 39-27. As the Gamecocks will look to continue their winning ways following their impressive 13-5 finish to regular season conference play this year.