Field of 16 Predictions: Projecting NASCAR Playoffs field ahead of Pocono

With six races remaining in the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series regular season, 12 playoff spots are locked up while only four are up for grabs.

Alex Bowman is the latest driver to clinch a playoff spot by way of his victory in last Sunday’s Chicago Street Race. Heading into this Sunday’s Great American Getaway 400 at Pocono Raceway, here’s a look at where things stand in the current field of 16, courtesy of Racing Insights.

Martin Truex Jr.

Truex, in his final full-time season in the Cup Series, had race-winning speed earlier in the campaign, but has hit a lull in recent months. Dating back to Darlington in early May, Truex has tallied just one top-10 finish, a P9 result at New Hampshire.

Despite the uneven run of performances, Truex still has a 94.80% chance at making the playoffs. Truex is 125 points above the cutline.

Ty Gibbs

Gibbs took a step forward at Chicago, finishing third behind Bowman and Tyler Reddick. The 21-year-old had a 77.66% chance at making the playoffs prior to the race, but now sees himself with an 85.60% chance heading into Pocono.

Gibbs is 84 points above the cutline.

Ross Chastain

Chastain looked safe on points weeks ago, but with several first-time winners recently such as Bowman, Joey Logano and Austin Cindric, his playoff odds have taken a hit. Following a P22 finish at Chicago, his playoff chances dipped from 89.07% to 79.02%.

Chastain is suddenly just 53 points above the cutline and could certainly use a win. Pocono hasn’t been kind to Chastain, as he’s yet to record a top-10 finish in eight career starts at the Tricky Triangle. His best finish at Pocono came last season when he crossed the start/finish line 13th.

Chris Buescher

Buescher is starting to feel the effect of his close calls earlier in the season. Though he’s notched three top 5s in his last five starts, he’s watched his playoff odds go from 87.76% going into Chicago to 60.98% coming out of the Street Race.

Buescher is now just 45 points ahead of the cutline. His first career Cup Series victory came at Pocono back in 2016, however, he has just one top-10 finish in 12 races since at the racetrack.

The first four out is highlighted by three drivers who made the postseason in 2023, including a two-time Cup Series champion.

Bubba Wallace

It’s officially crunch time for Wallace, who has steadily lost ground in the playoff race as the season has gone on. Now 45 points back of Buescher for the final playoff spot, the reality facing Wallace is that he must get to Victory Lane and soon.

Wallace has only a 19.40% chance of making the playoffs. He has finished inside the top-15 in each of his last four starts at Pocono.

Kyle Busch

Busch’s 2024 campaign has been disastrous at times, highlighted by DNFs at Gateway, Iowa, New Hampshire and Nashville. Busch is riding a career-long 41-race winless streak, but will almost certainly have to find a way to get one to avoid missing the postseason for the first time since 2012.

He did pick up a top-10 finish at Chicago and has won four times at Pocono, most recently in 2021.

Josh Berry

Berry has only an outside shot at making the playoffs, currently having an 8.39% chance. A P26 result at Nashville and P36 run at Chicago has plummeted his chances of getting in on points, now 152 points back of Buescher.

Michael McDowell

McDowell was always going to need a win to make the playoffs, and he has been close recently. He finished runner-up to Kyle Larson at Sonoma and took home fifth at Chicago. McDowell has a 5.62% chance at making the playoffs. He has two top 10s in 21 starts at Pocono.