Illinois vs. Iowa State odds: Win probability, final score prediction in Sweet 16
The 2024 version NCAA Tournament has been filled with some highly entertaining games so far and it’s only going to get better from here on out. Now as we get into the Sweet Sixteen matchups, we’re usually guaranteed some great games and it will be no different as Illinois and Iowa State prepare to clash on Thursday in this year’s Sweet Sixteen.
The Fighting Illini come into this matchup as one of the hottest teams in all of college basketball, having won nine of their last 10 games, including their impressive run to the 2024 Big Ten Tournament Championship. During that time frame, Illinois has averaged 88.3 points per game. They’re looking like one of the more dangerous teams in the tournament and they only lost two non-conference matchups this year: the No. 4 ranked Marquette Golden Eagles (71-64) on Nov. 14. and the No. 17-ranked Tennessee Volunteers on Dec. 9th (86-79).
Illinois features one of the most explosive scorers in the country, Terrence Shannon, Jr. He ranks third in the nation averaging 23.1 points per game. He’s brought his best basketball with him to March Madness, pouring in 30 points against Duquesne on just 14 shots. They’ve also got a number of other dynamic weapons like Marcus Domask (averaging 15.9 points per game), who is also averaging 3.9 assists per game. They’ve also got three-point shooters like Coleman Hawkins (12.3 points per game) and Quincy Guerrier (9.7 points per game). They both combine to average around 38% from deep.
The Iowa State Cyclones sit at 29-7 overall and their defense has been playing impressive in the last 10 games. The Cyclones haven’t allowed more than 65 points in their last 10 games, with nine of those ending in wins. ISU mercilessly thrashed Houston in the Big 12 Tournament Championship 69-41, producing one of the more shocking results in a wildly unpredictable year of college basketball.
Iowa State pulled away in the second half of their Round of 32 matchup with No. 7 seed Washington State, prevailing 67-56. This marks their second trip to the Sweet Sixteen in two years. Tamin Lipsey stuffed the stat sheet with 15 points, five rebounds, and four assists in the win. They also got 14 points and four rebounds from Curtis Jones. Milan Momcilovic also pumped in 19 points in their first-round win over South Dakota State, and 10 points against Washington State.
Odds for Illinois vs. Iowa State
Vegas seems to think this one is evenly matched and should be one of the closest games of the Sweet 16 matchups. Iowa State is currently favored by 1.5 points, according to FanDuel. The money line for ISU is currently listed at -137 and the money line for Illinois is +114. The over/under is currently listed at 144.5 total points.
Final score predictions for Illinois vs. Iowa State
BPI Predicted winner: Iowa State
BPI Predicted point differential: 2.1
BPI Win probability (for Iowa State): 58.1 percent
BPI Matchup Quality: 97.1
ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It agrees with Vegas with what to expect from this game, expecting it to be one of the best games of all the Sweet 16 contests.
The matchup quality score is listed at 97.1, which is excellent. Leading up to the game, BPI is projecting a point differential of 2.1 points in Iowa State’s favor. It also gives the Cyclones a 58.1 percent chance of winning the game.
KenPom Predicted final score: Iowa State 76, Illinois 75
KenPom Win probability (for Iowa State): 54 percent
KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account. KenPom agrees with Vegas that this one is going to be extremely close, and the prediction shows that. He predicts that Iowa State will win by one point, 76-75. KenPom also gives the Cyclones a 54 percent chance of winning over Illinois.
How to watch Illinois vs. Iowa State
Time: 10:09 PM EST
Channel: TBS/TruTV (actual channel), Prime Video (streaming)
Location: Boston, Massachusetts–TD Garden Arena
The game is set for Thursday, March 28th. It will be broadcast on two different channels, TBS and TruTV. It will be streamed on Amazon Prime Video.
The game is going to be played in Boston, Massachusetts in TD Garden. The arena is home to the Boston Bruins of the NHL and the Boston Celtics of the NBA.