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Kentucky vs. Tennessee odds: Win probability, final score prediction for Wildcats, Vols

Alex Weberby:Alex Weber03/09/24
NCAA Basketball: Mississippi at Tennessee
Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center during the second half of the game between the Tennessee Volunteers and the Mississippi Rebels. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

Following a barn-burner matchup between Kentucky and Tennessee in Rupp Arena in which the Volunteers controlled earlier in the season, UT is roundly considered the favorite heading into meeting No. 2.

Since their last meeting, both teams have only trended upwards. The Wildcats last lost to Tennessee in the midst of a 3-game home losing streak, but are now winners in six of their last seven. Meanwhile, the Vols are stalking a 1-seed as Selection Sunday draws nearer and are winners in all seven of their last seven games, including a victory at South Carolina earlier in the week.

A massive SEC battle in Knoxville between the ‘Cats and Vols. Come read about it:

Odds for Kentucky vs. Tennessee

FanDuel line: Tennessee -7.5
FanDuel over/under: 167.5 points

Like many Kentucky foes, Tennessee put together perhaps their best offensive performance of the season, eclipsing 100 points without even getting a great night out of Dalton Knecht. Instead, it was Zakai Zeigler and Josiah-Jordan James who led the way offensively in a pretty comfortable nine-point win. Back at home, FanDuel doesn’t predict quite as hot of a shooting night but still likes the Vols to take care of business.

Final Score Predictions

KenPom final score: Tennessee 86, Kentucky 77
KenPom win probability: Tennessee 79%

KenPom sees little reason to disagree with the result last time out. Sure, a shift towards the orange in home court makes some difference, but at the end of the day, KP’s metrics see a similar game to the last one unfolding.

BPI margin of victory: Tennessee by 12.1
BPI win probability: Tennessee 84.6%
BPI matchup quality: 83.2 (10th of the day)

ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) leaves no gray area and declares the Volunteers will beat up the Wildcats by double figures. We’re talking about a 1-seed caliber team who is surging with seven straight wins and about to play in front of their home crowd against a rival they already beat on the road. BPI calls for a party in Thompson-Boling on Saturday afternoon.

How to Watch

Time: 4 p.m. ET / 3 p.m. CT
Channel: CBS, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Knoxville, Tennessee (Thompson-Boling Arena)

ubo’s spring offer just kicked off – For a limited time, new subscribers can save $20 on their first month of Fubo’s Pro, Elite, and Premier plans.

It’s the ‘Cats and Vols coming up in the late afternoon window. SEC and NCAA Tournament seeding on the line in this blockbuster matchup between bitter conference foes just across state lines.