NBA Draft: Is the 2024 cycle as down as many are suggesting?
The 2024 NBA Draft is an interesting one. There is already talk about the top end of the draft being as far down as it has been in the last decade. A look back to the 2023 draft; at this point, we were already talking about generational talents, Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson, at the top. The 2024 NBA Draft simply does not have that.
However, the talk of this draft being down is simply meaning that it lacks generational top-end talent. It also stems from the fact that the one-and-done talent from the previous year’s high school class was down. That does not necessarily speak toward the depth of the upcoming NBA Draft. However, one thing this does mean is that there will be a large outcome of variance with players in this draft.
We are going to be able to see first-hand which NBA front offices trust their scouting eyes. In years past, we have seen universal tiers of players form. This means that throughout the NBA Draft cycle, groupings of players started to form, and whether that grouping consisted of two people or ten people, there were general ranges that groups of players would fall into.
With the 2024 draft, at least at this point, you will not see universal player tiers. The range of outcomes for a Kyle Filipowski, Stephon Castle, or even an AJ Johnson could go from the top ten to the back part of the twenties. NBA teams will have to cast a wide net and dive into many players from varying backgrounds.
While many years past, most players taken in the top half of the first round were one-and-done college types. This year it could be different. We saw players who were projected first-rounder picks last year choose to come back to college to elevate their stock. There were five-star prospects who chose to go the professional route instead of college. There will also be an abundance of players from overseas who will be evaluated and looked at in this draft cycle.
NBA teams will need to trust their scouting eyes for this upcoming draft, they will be forced to cast a wide net and truly evaluate who the best prospects are for their specific teams.
Looking through the G-League Ignite and NBL
This year’s G-League Ignite team might be the deepest one it has had yet. Multiple players on the team will be considered NBA Draft prospects, more than twice as many as in years past.
In 2021 the program saw three players drafted, including Jalen Green, who went No. 2, and Jonathan Kuminga, No. 7. In 2022, they again had three drafted, with Dyson Daniels the only player taken in the top half of the first round at No. 8. This past draft saw four players taken, but Scoot Henderson at No. 3 was the only in the first round.
This year, you see players like 6-foot-8 forward Ron Holland, 6-foot-11 forward Matas Buzelis, 6-foot-10 forward Izan Almansa, and 6-foot-7 guard Thierry Darlan getting first-round love. You also see players like 6-foot-10 post Tyler Smith and 6-foot-3 point guard London Johnson showing up on mock draft boards. Dink Pate, a 6-foot-8 guard, will also be with the G-League Ignite this season, his first of a two-year contract.
You also look through the National Basketball League (NBL), and you see multiple players who opted to go that route instead of playing domestically. Most notably, former Texas signee AJ Johnson, a 6-foot-6 point guard in the 2022 class, signed with the Illawarra Hawks. Alex Toohey, a 6-foot-8 wing and former Gonzaga signee, opted to stay home and play with the Sydney Kings. Former Overtime Elite prospect Alexandre Sarr, a 7-foot-1 post, signed with the Perth Wildcats. Bobi Klintman, a 6-foot-11 forward who played as a freshman with Wake Forest last season, signed with the Cairns Taipans.
NBA teams will have their eyes firmly planted on the NBL and the G-League Ignite program.
NBA Draft prospects returning to college
In a unique manner this season, multiple college players who were projected or strongly talked about as first-round draft picks in the 2023 NBA Draft opted to return to college and get in the 2024 NBA Draft.
Players like 7-foot-0 post Kyle Filipowski (Duke), 6-foot-5 wing Riley Kugel (Florida), 6-foot-4 guard Trey Alexander (Creighton), and 7-foot-2 center Donovan Clingan (UConn) were all talked about as possible first-round picks late in the process.
When you layer in on top of those four, the guys who stayed in college and look to take natural progression and development, the number of college returners continues to grow. Players like 6-foot-4 guard Tyrese Proctor (Duke), 6-foot-10 center Adem Bona (UCLA), 6-foot-9 forward Trevon Brazile (Arkansas), 7-foot-1 center Kel’el Ware (Indiana), 6-foot-8 forward Mark Mitchell (Duke), and 6-foot-7 forward Dillon Mitchell (Texas) will all be back in college for their sophomore year jumps.
Naturally, there will be more on this list, with some deep sleepers certain to emerge who are not on mock drafts at this point.
Draft prospects player overseas
Foreign-born players have always intrigued within the NBA Draft. Over the last couple of draft cycles, it seems that the number of foreign players drafted outside of the NBL or G-League Ignite is down.
In 2022, seven players outside of the NBL or G-League Ignite were drafted, and none went in the first round. This year, in the 2023 NBA Draft, two foreign players, Victor Wembanyama and Bilal Coulibaly, went in the first round (lottery), and three were drafted in the second round- five in total.
A lot can come into play with this topic when it comes to players opting in and out of drafts, current contracts, opting to play in college, etc. However, with this draft, there are some interesting foreign names popping up. The most popular early on is 6-foot-8 forward Zaccharie Risacher of LDLC ASVEL (France). Among other notes, he has successful international experience as well as spent a week in the United States this summer playing at Nike Hoop Summit.
6-foot-6 wing Melvin Ajinca of Saint-Quentin (France), 6-foot-11 post Alexandros Samadurav of Panathinaikos (Greece), 6-foot-11 post Ruben Prey of Joventut (Spain), 6-foot-9 forward Tidjane Salaun of Cholet Baset (France), and 6-foot-7 forward Nikoa Durisic of Mega Mozzart (Serbia) are some early names circulating to watch over the next year.
The 2024 NBA Draft
The upcoming draft will be an exciting one. As the process plays itself out, there are sure to be some tiers that form, with groupthink always playing a role. However, this year more than any, true scouting will play a major role in the order of how the players are drafted. You will continue to see players listed all over the mock draft boards. However, that is the exciting piece of the industry, diving into the film study, player backgrounds, and in-person viewings to project where you feel a person will best fit. The months leading up to the June draft should be fun.