NBA Draft: Devin Carter or Jared McCain
The 2024 NBA Draft is quickly approaching as we are only four months away from the June 26 Draft night. The 2024 version of this draft has been a crap shoot for the most part. Players have still not sorted themselves into consensus tiers. As the season wears on, more questions arise than answers. This year, more than any other, NBA front offices will have to rely on their scouting eyes, dive into their philosophy and identity, and take what they see as its best fit.
The 2024 NBA Draft is void of top-tier stars. Some NBA scouts I have spoken with have questioned whether they would take any of the players projected to go No. 1, in the top ten of previous draft classes. Sure that seems a little extreme, but that is the reality of where things currently are.
Drawing on the philosophical aspect that this year’s NBA Draft will feature, I thought it would be fun to go through different sets of positionally similar players, with one being a one-and-done and the other a college veteran. Traditionally, in years past, NBA teams have opted to go young, take the one-and-done prospect, and groom them in the organization. However, the 2023 high school class (the crop of 2024 NBA Draft one-and-done prospects) is down. And with the NBA looking for players they can plug and play to contribute now. Looking at various one-and-done prospects versus older players will come up at the war room table.
Devin Carter and Jared McCain are each interesting in their own right. Both players have developed a huge following this season. McCain, the freshman at Duke, with his shooting and clutch performances. And Carter, the junior at Providence, for his all-around toughness and production. While the two are similar in position, as I mentioned above, they are quite different in their individual player archetypes. However, they are both being talked about among first-rounders.
Let’s take a side-by-side look at Carter and McCain as it relates to the 2024 NBA Draft.
Carter will be 22 on the night of the 2024 NBA Draft and McCain will be 20.
Jared McCain is a proven winner
Winning has followed Jared McCain around since his days in high school. Over the past 24 months, the Duke freshman has won a California State Open Division Championship with his Corona (CA) Centennial team. He has won a gold medal with USA Basketball and he won a Nike Peach Jam championship with his Team Why Not 16u team.
McCain’s nose for the spotlight has carried over to his play at Duke this season. Through his first 27 games, he is averaging 13.6 points and shooting 41.1 percent from three for the 21-6 Blue Devils, who started the week No. 10 in the A.P. Poll.
McCain has displayed a propensity to show up during the biggest moments, having no problem toting the scoring load when needed. Even after starting the season slowly, McCain has scored 20 or more points seven times since Dec. 9.
His numbers have also increased during ACC play, averaging 14.5 points and 5.4 rebounds while shooting 37.5 percent from three and 83.3 percent from the free-throw line.
Per Synergy, McCain has taken 288 field goal attempts this season, with 192 being considered jump shots. He is scoring 1.15 points per shot off jumpers with a 57.3 true shooting percentage.
McCain lacks length and explosive burst, which has led to some questions about his finishing around the basket, despite shooting 63.3 percent at the rim. He has not shown much creative wiggle off the bounce, but he is aggressive and oftentimes efficient in directly getting to his spots.
McCain is listed at 6-foot-3 and 197 pounds by Duke. He has not shown much in the way of passing and setting up teammates. McCain is averaging 1.8 assists to 1.1 turnovers on the season and 1.6 assists to 1.2 turnovers during ACC play.
The freshman is a good rebounder for his position, finishing with ten or more rebounds in six games this season, four times in ACC play. While he lacks length and can be driven by when not able to make contact and use his strength, he is an aggressive defender who gives effort.
Can he parlay his competitive nature and quick shooting touch and range to the NBA without being a lead guard or primary initiator? Given his singular player archetype, there are narrow margins for his outcome.
Devin Carter continues to improve
Devin Carter bloomed late in high school, using a post-graduate year at Wolfeboro (NH) Brewster Academy. That season he went from an unranked player to a consensus top-100 guard. Carter signed with Frank Martin at South Carolina where he started his college career.
Carter is the son of former NBA guard Anthony Carter, a current assistant coach with the Memphis Grizzlies. He earned SEC All-Freshman honors before entering the transfer portal after South Carolina parted ways with Martin.
He committed to Ed Cooley at Providence and averaged 13.0 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.8 steals, and 1.1 blocks. When Cooley left Providence for Georgetown, Carter opted to stay with the Friars and play for his third head coach in three years, Kim English.
While always a productive player, it was this year that Carter absolutely took off. He is currently leading the Big East in scoring at 19.3 per game. The 6-foot-3 guard is also in the top ten in the conference in rebounds (8.3), assists (3.6), and steals (1.6). His production has been through the roof all season. What has made it more interesting is that he has improved each month of the year.
Carter is shooting 38.6 percent from three on 6.5 attempts this season. He is getting to the free-throw line 5.0 times per game and he is fourth overall in the Big East in rebounds, as a 6-foot-3 guard. With that, Carter’s numbers have risen during league play.
In his 16 Big East games, he is averaging 21.8 points, 8.7 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 1.8 steals while shooting 41.3 percent from three on 6.8 attempts per game. His scoring numbers have risen each month this season and his shooting percentages are up over last month.
Even with the increased offensive production, where Carter really shines remains on the defensive end of the floor. He is a rugged point-of-attack defender, using strength, toughness, and anticipation to guard multiple positions along the perimeter. He is also an instinctive off-ball defender, aggressively hunting deflections in the passing lanes. Carter is averaging 1.0 blocks and 1.6 steals on the season.
While Carter’s clearest path to a role in an NBA rotation is on the defensive end, it is good to see the improved offensive production. The eye test still shows the jump shot release is not clean and somewhat inconsistent. The form helps to understand why he is shooting ten percentage points higher off the catch than he is off the bounce.
Carter is a physical – both in stature and mentality – with good length and athleticism. He finishes well at the rim, taking contact and producing points. He is scoring 1.15 points per shot taken and has 19 dunks on the season. Carter also lacks wiggle off the bounce and can struggle to create space in the half-court. This leads to questions about how his scoring will translate in the NBA.
With Carter, the offensive game will be the swing factor. Can he become a three-and-d guard, or even add some creation to his bag? Even with that, the defense should translate.
McCain vs. Carter
While Jared McCain came into this season as a known commodity, he started slow and has since exceeded expectations. Quite similar to Devin Carter. Carter was a nice player for Providence last year and has unexpectedly grown into one of college basketball’s most productive guards.
What makes this pairing so interesting is the range with which each is being projected. McCain has jumped into the post-lottery, first-round conversations, while settling into the latter part of the first to upper part of the second-round area. He has scored 15 or more points in seven of his 16 ACC games where 51.6 percent of his field goal attempts and 46.6 percent of his overall points have come from beyond the three-point line.
In most conversations I have had regarding McCain, there are limited concerns with his shooting and his ability to knock down shots at a high clip. The shooting touch has also been applauded by most. The questions surrounding his impact outside of the shooting.
With Carter, his range has drifted from the back end of the lottery into the second round. So as of February 27, it appears these two have a good bit of overlap with their projections. That makes this an interesting conversation.
Carter’s skill that he can hang his hat on is the defense. His ability to guard on or off the ball and simply be pesky at multiple positions is attractive. The offensive side of the ball has come around as well. Coming into the season he was a sub-30 percent three-point shooter. He has hovered around 40 percent all year, on high volume. This is a promising development as he has proven to have shooting touch as a career 71.2 percent free-throw shooter. Can he sustain the scoring?
Duke and Providence are both currently being projected into the NCAA Tournament. Both Carter and McCain will have a few more in-season games along with the pre-draft workouts and combines.
Both players have experienced success this season, there are clear advantages they both bring to the table. They both also have questions. With one being a one-and-done prospect and the other a 22-year-old junior, given the current landscape of the 2024 NBA Draft class and drafting philosophies, it could be interesting to see which order these two go on draft night.