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NFL analytics expert projects Cincinnati Bengals win total for 2024 season

profilephotocropby:Suzanne Halliburton06/08/24

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joe burrow bengals afc north
Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

One of the top storylines of the upcoming NFL season is whether the Bengals return to the elite level in the AFC. Fans loved the growing rivalry between Cincinnati and Kansas City. With Joe Burrow hobbled or out for most of the fall, there was no third straight conference title game between the two teams.

But Burrow’s wrist and calf are healed. So beware Chiefs, the Bengals are coming for your Kingdom. At least one NFL expert is projecting a Kansas City and Cincinnati will finish as the top two teams in the AFC.

Cynthia Frelund, an analytics expert for NFL Network, is predicting 10.5 victories for the Bengals and the AFC North Division championship. The “Who Dey” crowd will be mostly happy for 2024. In fact, Frelund predicted the win totals for all 32 teams. She based her formula on a mixture of stats, history and trends. It’s all cold, non-emotional numbers.

Frelund put a lot of work into her predictions. She explained how she created the formula for her projections. “Using the projected 53-man rosters as of May 14, I ran 150,000 simulations for all 272 regular-season games,” she wrote.

She also noted, “remember, these simulations account for many contextualized data points that have been proven to correlate to wins and losses based on historical football games that were actually played.”

amarius mims bengals
The Bengals selected Georgia offensive tackle Amarius Mims in the first round of April’s NFL Draft. (Cara Owsley/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK)

Cincinnati Bengals odds, predictions for 2024

  • Win Total: over 10.5 (-140)
  • Make Playoffs: -210
  • Win Division: +170
  • Win Conference: +700
  • Win Super Bowl: +1300

Frelund wrote of the Bengals:

“Worst-to-first debates are great offseason fodder, and in that spirit, no team has a greater probability of achieving the feat this season than the Bengals in the AFC North. I project the Bengals to have at least a 55 percent win probability in four of their first six games, and a hot start could go a long way in this hotly contested division.

“One of the reasons Cincinnati has such a positive forecast is the upgrades they made up front, specifically in the additions of Trent Brown (free agency) and Amarius Mims (No. 18 overall pick in the draft). In fact, the Bengals’ O-line win share projects to be the highest in Joe Burrow‘s career to date.”

The Bengals did lose their offensive coordinator. Brian Callahan moved from Cincinnati to Tennessee to take over as the Titans head coach. Bengals coach Zac Taylor won’t need to change anything since Cincinnati promoted Dan Pitcher, the quarterbacks coach, to OC.

There will be a change at running back. Zack Moss, formerly of the Colts, is now in Cincy. Cincinnati still has Ja’Marr Chase as its top receiver. However, Tee Higgins didn’t participate in OTAs as he hopes for a longer-term contract or a trade. That’s because the team used the franchise tag on him.

Their biggest addition on defense was tackle Sheldon Rankins, formerly of the Texans. Plus, Cincinnati drafted two DTs, including Michigan’s Kris Jenkins in the second round.

Overall, Frelund and her formula predicted that the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs will win 10.9 games. Then, she projects the Texans will come in third after the Bengals with 10.3 victories.

Her formula thinks there will be a tie for fourth between the Dolphins and the Ravens at 10.2 wins a piece. The Bills are sixth at 10 wins, followed by the Jets at 9.6. Those are her seven playoff teams.

You may check out all of Frelund’s predictions here. And check out On3.com’s NFL coverage here.