Oregon vs. Creighton odds: Win probability, final score prediction in NCAA Tournament
The 11th seeded Oregon Ducks and No. 3 seed Creighton Blue Jays figure to provide what should be a highly entertaining matchup in their second-round contest in this year’s NCAA Tournament. While the Ducks are the 11 seed in the Midwest Region, they’re also one of the hottest teams in the tourney.
Oregon has rattled off five straight wins including their impressive run to the 2024 Pac-12 Tournament Championship.
The Ducks handled the No. 6 seed South Carolina Gamecocks in their first-round matchup in impressive fashion, winning 87-73. Oregon was fueled by a spectacular performance by former Gamecock, Jermaine Couisnard. He erupted for 40 points in the win, the most points scored in an NCAA Tournament game since Purdue’s Carsen Edwards scored 42 points against Virginia in the 2019 Elite Eight.
The Creighton Bluejays (24-9 overall) are one of the best teams in the tournament and they’ve got a loaded roster featuring stars like Trey Alexander, Baylor Scheierman, and Ryan Kalkbrenner. Kalkbrenner recently won his third straight Big East Defensive Player of the Year award. There’s a reason the Blue Jays made it to the Elite Eight in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, players like him and Baylor Scheierman leading the way. They’ll be looking to make another run this year and the Ducks are in their path.
In their first-round matchup of this year’s NCAA Tournament, Creighton handled the No. 14 seed Akron Zips with no problems, pulling out a 77-60 victory.
Odds for Oregon vs. Creighton
The oddsmakers in Vegas seem to think this one is going to be a close one. According to FanDuel, Creighton is currently favored by 5.5 points. The money line on the Blue Jays is currently listed at -215. The over/under for Saturday night’s matchup is listed at 145.5 points.
Creighton averages 80.5 points per game. Oregon averages 75.3 points per game. The Ducks have put 75 points or more on the scoreboard in their last two games, including 87 in their first-round win vs. South Carolina.
Final score predictions for Oregon vs. Creighton
BPI Predicted winner: Creighton
BPI Predicted point differential: 10.7
BPI Win probability (for Creighton): 84.5%
BPI Matchup Quality: 79.5
ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It disagrees a little bit with Vegas on what to expect from this game. Leading up to the game, BPI is projecting a 10.7-point differential in Creighton’s favor.
BPI also gives this game a matchup quality score of 79.5, which is the third lowest score of all the Round of 32 games on Saturday and Saturday evening.
KenPom Predicted final score: Creighton 77, Oregon 71
KenPom Win probability (for Creighton): 70 percent
KenPom seems to agree with Vegas on the fact they both think this game is going to be close. He projects Creighton to beat Oregon by six points in a 77-71 game. KenPom also gives the Blue Jays a 70 percent chance of advancing to the Sweet 16.
How to watch Oregon vs. Creighton
Time: 9:40 PM ET
Channel: TBS/Tru TV (actual channel), Prime Video (streaming)
Location: PPG Paints Arena–Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Oregon and Creighton are set to tip off at 9:40 PM EST. It will be played at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The game will be televised on two actual channels, TBS and TruTV. For streaming purposes, it can be watched on Amazon Prime Video.
PPG Paints Arena is a multi-purpose indoor arena in Pittsburgh that also serves as the home of the Pittsburgh Penguins of the National Hockey League. It was previously the home of the Pittsburgh Power of the AFL from 2011 to 2014. For basketball events, the capacity of the stadium is listed at 19,000 seats.