Tennessee vs. Arkansas odds: Win probability, final score prediction for Vols, Razorbacks

Lately, a road game at Arkansas is as tough as it gets in SEC play, but the Razorbacks simply aren’t the scary matchup this year that they’ve often been since Eric Musselman took over the program. Though, that doesn’t mean Tennessee can sleepwalk its way through their game Wednesday evening.

Arkansas has actually won two of its last three games but are still towards the very bottom of the league standings at 3-7 in SEC play and without a single win vs. the top-six of the conference. So, in comes Tennessee, currently in fourth place in the SEC and No. 8 in the latest AP Poll, and favored pretty big.

To see just how large of underdogs the Razorbacks are vs. the Volunteers, read up below on all the various point spreads and final score predictions:

Odds for Tennessee vs. Arkansas

FanDuel line: Tennessee -8.5 points
Moneyline: Tennessee (-430), Arkansas (+330)
Over/Under: 150.5 total points

Tennessee is a sizeable road favorite here. Regardless of quality of team, AP-ranked clubs have found themselves in major peril on the road in league play. Seemingly, even the worst teams in each power conference are capable of picking off the top dogs on their own home court. So 8.5 points and a -430 moneyline spread from FanDuel is quite aggressive.

Final Score Predictions

KenPom final score: Tennessee 80, Arkansas 69
KenPom win probability: Tennessee 85%

FanDuel went strong for Tennessee, and the metrics are in agreement, and favor the Vols even heavier, expecting a double-digit road victory for UT. KenPom also believes Tennessee has an 85% chance to take care of business, with Arkansas holding just a 15% chance of victory.

BPI projected winner: Tennessee
BPI win probability: 86.8%
BPI projected point difference: 12.8
BPI Matchup Quality: 73 (7th of the day)

The margin of victory predictions just keep ballooning up in Tennessee’s favor as ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) foresees a win by roughly a baker’s dozen (or a regular dozen) and an 86.8% chance of a win for the Volunteers this evening. Despite the lopsided spread, the BPI still ranks Tennessee-Arkansas as one of the better matchups of the evening as the seventh-best of the entire Wednesday slate.

How to Watch Tennessee vs. Arkansas

Time: 9 p.m. ET / 8 p.m. CT
Channel: (ESPN), FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Fayetteville, Arkansas (Bud Walton Arena)

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Arkansas’ NCAA Tournament at-large chances are slim to none at this point in the season. But they’re not out of the picture 100% just yet. They’ll need flip this season like a pancake and likely win out through the SEC Tournament to even have a shot, and the first step would be securing a quad one victory over Tennessee. Meanwhile, the Volunteers will simply try to keep chugging on as one of the SEC’s best by avoiding a loss to a desperate and struggling Razorback squad.