Breaking down the Florida Gators NCAA Tournament projections
GAINESVILLE, Fla. — It’s getting late quick and the Florida Gators still have work to do in order to make it to the NCAA Tournament. Florida currently sits with a record of 25-23 / 10-14 SEC record. The Gators haven’t won a weekend series since taking two of three from Mississippi State during the final weekend of March. The five straight weekend series losses are the most during the Kevin O’Sullivan era.
It’s not for a lack of trying either. O’Sullivan has tinkered with the lineup more than he has in recent years and he’s changed the pitching rotation more than he ever has. In a win Tuesday night, Brandon Neely came out of the bullpen to close out a win over the USF Bulls. Neely began the season as the closer but will finish the season back in the bullpen as Florida’s closer.
“It didn’t work out with Cade as our Friday night starter, then we made some drastic changes and then tried to use Brandon [Neely] there as a starter and there were some really good moments and there were some moments that weren’t so good. So, now we’re back to the drawing board again. That’s not from a lack of trying to push each button; all we’re trying to do right now is put everybody in a position to be successful.”
Work to do
The Gators are not into the tournament yet. Florida will host Kentucky this weekend before finishing the regular season in Athens, Georgia to take on the Georgia Bulldogs. Historically, 14 wins along with Florida’s RPI and strength of schedule would get the Gators into the tournament. That would mean winning each of the final two-weekend series. Florida could get there with three wins out of the next six SEC games and a strong run in Hoover at the SEC Tournament.
With the season coming to a close the 2024 Gators need to help themselves these next three weeks if they don’t want to become the only team in the Kevin O’Sullivan era to miss the postseason entirely.
Florida Gators’ NCAA tournament projections
D1 Baseball projection
The guys at D1Baseball.com have had a hard time with the Gators. Florida has been one of their “last four in” and a three-seed in their projections for several weeks. This week, The Gators again come in a three-seed in the Durham Regional. The Regional has a familiar foe in Columbia, who D1Baseball has making the tournament via the Ivy League’s Automatic Qualifier for its champion. Duke and UC Irvine are having strong seasons as well.
The Gators swept Columbia earlier this season and this would be a favorable Regional for the Gators. The Durham Regional is paired with the Clemson Regional who has the Oregon Ducks, Coastal Carolina Chanticleers, and the Sacred Heart Pioneers traveling to play in the Clemson Tigers’ Regional.
If the Gators can get hot at the end of the season and make the tournament, this would be a favorable draw for the Orange and Blue.
Regional Snapshot
- Duke: 33-14 (14-10 ACC). RPI – 18. SOS – 26.
- UC Irvine: 35-10 (15-6 Big West). RPI – 27. SOS – 108.
- Florida: 25-23 (10-14 SEC). RPI 23. SOS – 1.
- Columbia: 26-15 (17-4 Ivy League). RPI – 107. SOS – 212
Baseball America Regional Projections
Baseball America’s projection is not as favorable for the Gators. Baseball America has projected the Gators to travel west down I10 to play in the Tallahassee Regional. The Gators were swept by the Seminoles this season for the first time in years. Coming into the season the Gators had won 22 of the last 26 meetings.
The Tallahassee Regional is also paired with the Norman Regional, consisting of Oklahoma, Dallas Baptist, UCONN, and Lamar.
Regional Snapshot:
- Florida State: 36-10 (14-9 ACC). RPI – 7. SOS – 28.
- Troy: 34-16 (16-8 Sun Belt). RPI – 47. SOS – 99
- Florida: 25-23 (10-14 SEC). RPI 23. SOS – 1.
- Bethune-Cookman: 27-22 (17-7 Atlantic Sun). RPI – 238. SOS – 286
