Evaluating Florida's third and fourth down play calling vs. Tennessee
In a close 38-33 loss to the Tennessee Volunteers, Billy Napier and his Florida Gators practiced his iconic “Scared Money Don’t Make Money” mindset. Napier’s play-calling kept the Gators in the game for all 60 minutes, despite the defense struggling to help the offense down the stretch. How’d he do it? By going for it on third and fourth down.
Napier knew he would have to gamble to keep up with the high-powered Vols offense. Possessions are vital, especially when your defense is struggling to get stops against a red-hot offense.
Despite success on fourth down, the Gators only converted seven of 15 third down attempts. They went for it on fourth down six times, converting five.
Coming into the day, Tennessee ranked ninth in the nation in opponent third down conversion rate, with a whopping 22 percent. The Gators finished the game at 46.6 percent.
Gators Online breaks down Florida’s play calls on third and fourth downs against the Vols.
Subscribe to the Gators Online Youtube Page for free today!
First Quarter
13:40 1Q, third-and-12 on own 28, 0-0
Florida is forced to throw early on third down, deep inside UF territory. Tennessee shows blitz but bails and only brings four. Gators’ quarterback Anthony Richardson finds no one open as scurries for a gain of 11.
0/1 on third down.
13:30 1Q, fourth-and-1 on own 39, 0-0
After the aforementioned quarterback scramble, Anthony Richardson hurries to the line and quickly sneaks the ball across the marker for a first down. Tennessee wasn’t ready and the Gators continue their opening drive.
1/1 on fourth down.
10:30 1Q, third-and-9 on Vols 28, 0-0
After an incomplete pass on first and a rush of one yard on second down, Florida is again in third-and-long. Napier calls an outside run and Johnson picks up seven. The run call makes sense, given Napier was in four-down territory and knew it.
0/2 on third down.
9:49 1Q, fourth-and-2 on UT 20, 0-0
Florida goes empty and motions in Justin Shorter on a fake sweep which gets sniffed out by the Tennessee defense. Gators gain no yards on their only fourth down attempt that wasn’t converted. As for the play call, UF wanted to get Richardson established in the run game, but to no avail. Florida stalls on their first drive of the game.
1/2 on fourth down.
4:40 1Q, third-and-9 on UT 34, 0-0
Gators again find themselves in a third and long after a failed run and incomplete pass. Florida motions out Trevor Etienne to create an empty set with Justin Shorter on an island in man coverage. Richardson throws over Shorter’s head on third down. Gators were forced to kick a field goal, yet missed. Still no points for Florida.
0/3 on third down.
0:20 1Q, third-and-6 on own 29, 3-0 UT
Gators once again go empty after two pass plays don’t work out on first and second down. Tennesee bluffs with two linebackers in the A-gap as Florida goes empty again. Richardson throws at the blitzing defender where Florida had two routes at the marker but threw to Dante Zanders for a seven-yard gain. The bluffing linebacker couldn’t get back to Zanders on an out route and the Gators finally converted on third down.
1/4 on third down.
Second Quarter
14:21 2Q, third-and-2 on own 44, 3-0 UT
Another third down, another empty set for the Gators. Like the second fourth down call, the Gators motioned in a receiver, this time Xzavier Henderson as the snap gets to Richardson and Henderson crosses the formation. Richardson keeps but is stonewalled by a Tennessee defender despite an open running lane. Richardson comes up short of the line to gain.
1/5 on third down.
13:35 2Q, fourth-and-1 on own 45, 3-0 UT
On this fourth down, Florida comes out in 11 personnel which is quickly killed as the Gators can’t get lined up in time. Florida calls timeout but runs a similar play anyway, which was a play-action bootleg. The play results in a gain of 11 as Richardson dumped the ball to Zanders on a drag, picking up yards after the catch. Gators convert.
2/3 on fourth down.
9:30 2Q, third-and-12 on UT 22, 10-7 UT
Another third-and-long and the Gators go 11 personnel. Richardson motions Daejon Reynolds across the formation and he runs a bubble. The Gators send out five routes and the tight end and a receiver run shallow crossers, and Trent Whittemore sits down on a curl while the running back runs a wheel up the sideline. Richardson stands tall against a four-man rush and delivers a strike to Whittemore in the middle of the field for a first down and gain of 14.
2/6 on third down.
4:21 2Q, third-and-10 from own 38, 14-10 UF
Gators throw on first, to no avail, and try to get some back on second down, doesn’t work. Richardson diagnoses a man blitz and finds Shorter on a comeback route despite backside pressure. Great read by Richardson here, as Shorter had a mismatch and boxes out his defender for an easy conversion. Gators pick up 12.
3/7 on third down.
3:00 2Q, third-and-11 on 50, 14-10 UF
After a failed pass on first down and a run for no gain on second, the Gators are in third-and-long again. On a gimmick play, the Gators’ offensive line doesn’t move and Richardson has nowhere to go and throws the ball away.
Bottom line, this is a terrible call. Not sure what Napier was trying to do here, but it didn’t work. Drive comes to a screeching halt and the Gators punt before the half. Momentum shifts once the Gators have to punt, and the Vols score on the next drive and got the ball out of the half.
3/8 on third down.
Third Quarter
8:14 3Q, third-and-5 on UT 16, 24-14 UT
In an odd change of pace, Napier pulls Richardson off the field and opts to go wildcat with Montrell Johnson on third-and-five. To say this call was head-scratching would be an understatement, as Florida was driving behind Richardson in a drive that started on the UF 25.
The run play by Johnson is shut down after a two-yard gain. Tennessee had all 11 defenders within six yards of the line of scrimmage, obviously playing the run.
The Gators trot out the offense for another fourth down attempt.
3/9 on third down.
7:28 3Q, fourth-and-3 on UT 14, 24-14 UT
After an abysmal play call on third down, UF goes for it on fourth. The Gators come out in a bunch set with two tight ends, a receiver and the running back in the backfield on the right side of the set. Isolated to the left side of the set is Justin Shorter. Florida sends out five routes, three of which are curls in the middle of the field. The other two routes, one from Keon Zipperer and one from the running back Johnson, go to the same flat. Zipperer narrowly catches the pass from Richardson for a first down.
This could have been a miscommunication, but the Gators convert despite having two routes going to the same spot on the field.
3/4 on fourth down.
6:31 3Q, third-and-goal from the UT 1, 24-14 UT
Gators score on third-and-goal from the one on a QB sneak.
4/10 on third down.
2:52 3Q, third-and-9 from own 4, 31-21 UT
Backed up in their own territory, the Gators have to convert a third-and-long from their own 4. Florida motions Etienne into the backfield and motions across Henderson as the ball is snapped. Tennessee, stuck in their pass package, gets gashed as the Gators call a run. Etienne gets through the line and makes a man miss to get to the marker. Florida took advantage of the numbers on the right side of the formation.
5/11 on third down.
1:24 3Q, third-and-5 from own 24, 31-21 UT
Gators go with a four-receiver set with a running back in the backfield next to Richardson. The call is a quarterback draw, which is shut down by Tennessee’s front. Florida had a good look for the call, but Tennessee defensive tackle Omari Thomas bests Ethan White on a second effort and disrupts the play.
5/12 on third down.
0:39 3Q, fourth-and-2 from own 26, 31-21 UT
Gators go for it after a failed QB draw. Another fourth down, another 2×2 four-receiver set. Richardson is flanked by Nay’Quan Wright as the Gators sent out five routes again. Pre-snap, the look is man coverage. Richardson sees this and goes to his biggest target on the field, Justin Shorter, who is streaking down the sideline. Three-step drop for Richardson and the ball is in the air to Shorter, who makes a spectacular catch for a 39-yard gain.
4/5 on fourth down.
Fourth Quarter
14:20 4Q, third-and-four from the Vols 28, 31-21 UT
To the left side of the formation are two receivers, with a running back and two tight ends on the right side. Napier calls a designed QB run to the short side of the field, where Richardson finds a first behind his pulling center and tackle, tight end and running back.
Florida goes back to the same play later in the drive, and the Vols blow it up as Richardson fumbles.
6/13 on third down.
7:12 4Q, third-and-14 from own 21, 38-21 UT
In an obvious passing situation, UT plays off and rushes four. With three high safeties, Richardson finds a hole in the zone at the sticks. The Gators had three receivers sitting at the marker and sent the running back out of the backfield while the tight end went to the flat. Gators convert.
7/14 on third down.
5:30 4Q, third-and-10 from UT 18, 38-21 UT
Florida goes with another 2×2 set and runs all slants. Justin Shorter makes the catch, but he’s two yards short of the line to gain.
7/15 on third down.
4:56 4Q, fourth-and-2 from UT 10, 38-21 UT
Florida goes trips to the right side of the formation while Johnson stands on Richardson’s right. Run is called to the left and Johnson makes a few men miss on his way to paydirt.
5/6 on fourth down.
COMMIT TO GATORS ONLINE FOR JUST $10 FOR THE YEAR!
Thoughts
Napier made his money on fourth down. The Gators should not have to rely on that, but it also allowed them to run with the high-scoring Vols.
The last third down of the first half on the gimmick play where the OL didn’t move was abhorrent. Florida had a chance to eat up the rest of the clock and go into the half with points and a lead, but instead, a 14-point swing ensued and left the game almost out of reach.
Another thing to think about: be more aggressive on third down, and you wouldn’t have to be on fourth down. You could argue Napier called third down plays in a setup for his fourth down play (i.e, Johnson’s wildcat). Outside of pulling your best offensive player off the field, there is no reason you should try to bully a front you have struggled with, especially when they load the box in a clear running situation.
At times, the designed quarterback run calls felt forced, especially with Richardson throwing well. I get Richardson is a behemoth that can easily pick up a yard or two by falling forward, but teams know when a QB run is coming. The outside QB runs were a great change of pace, but eventually, Tennessee predicted it.
Overall, the third and fourth down conversion rate on designed QB runs was 25 percent. Florida failed to gain a first down on third-and-2, third-and-5, and fourth-and-2. The Gators’ only conversion was a third-and-4 when the Gators ran outside with Richardson behind a convoy of blockers for a gain of five. Going back to the Kentucky game, Richardson came up short on third-and-5 on a similar QB draw play.
Moving forward, use the designed QB runs less often. They’ll prove more potent when called as you use them less. Tennessee picked up on them, and other teams will too, especially in a short down and distance.
Instead, use more RPOs with quick-hitting routes. The more options the better, especially on fourth down. Early in the Kentucky game, Florida called an RPO with a slant from Justin Shorter and it worked. The next time it was called, the look was right, but Richardson felt pressure and delivered a bad ball.
On fourth down, Richardson was 100 percent, completing three passes on three attempts.
It is evident that Richardson plays his best when four/five routes are sent out. Time and time again, when Richardson had to make a read, he made the right one. This problem doesn’t just apply to third and fourth down, either. Richardson has a lot to learn, but handicapping him with only two or three routes on the field isn’t going to help his progression.
I love the SMDMM mindset. It represents a shift in a forever-changing game that now embraces analytics. It shows that you trust your offense and their ability to make a play when it matters most.
Play to your quarterback’s strengths, and trust him to make a play. At the same time, get him in space. Richardson is a FREAK athlete. Roll him out of the pocket and good things happen. Use play-action and your stable of backs to your advantage.
Going back to the Utah two-point try and the third fourth down attempt from the Tennessee game shows Napier has the play on his call sheet, but it needs to be used way more often, especially on your money downs. Make defenders trust your feet and arm at the same time. Put them in a position where they have to choose one. And when you do roll out? Roll out to the field side, not the boundary. Too many times has Florida called this play to the short side of the field, where they run out of room and have to throw it away. Get your playmakers in space.
Time and time again, Vols’ quarterback Hendon Hooker made Florida defenders choose between covering a pass catcher downfield and crashing to tackle him as he scrambles out of the pocket.
Napier has a knack for situational football, but he’s far from perfect. He shows promise in some of his calls but still has lapses in judgment with others. Against Tennessee, Napier found situations where he bailed himself out of bad spots that he found himself in.
On Saturday, Florida did not have a fourth down attempt from over three yards. The Gators are tied for fourth in fourth-down conversion rate with teams over 10 attempts across the NCAA (oddly enough, they’re tied with Tennessee).
Is it sustainable? Time will tell.
Right now? The Gators are 72.7 percent on fourth down and won’t stop pushing their luck anytime soon.
