Iowa at Oklahoma State Dual Preview
One of the iconic wrestling venues in the country.
Two of the most prestigious programs in the history of the sport.
Three combined Olympic gold medals between a pair of all-time great athletes turned all-time great head coaches.
58 combined NCAA team titles won on the backs of 200-plus individual champions and hundreds more All-Americans.
All of that will culminate on Sunday afternoon (2:00 p.m. CST on FS1) when the fourth-ranked Iowa Hawkeyes (11-2, 6-2 Big Ten) visit a sold-out Gallagher-Iba Arena to take on #2 Oklahoma State (14-0, 8-0 Big 12).
Iowa, winners of seven of the last nine meetings in this historic rivalry, seeks its first victory in Stillwater since 2015 – which would pull the Hawkeyes within three wins in the all-time series (OSU currently leads 29-25-2).
It certainly won’t be easy against a red-hot Cowboys team which, as evidenced by its undefeated record, has rebounded in impressive fashion following last year’s almost unconscionable 18th-place finish at the NCAA Tournament.
Oklahoma State could run out a lineup with nothing but ranked wrestlers on Sunday, five of whom reside inside of the top 10 of Intermat’s latest rankings.
That said, it’s feasible for Iowa to match the Cowboys’ depth in this dual, though it may depend on how head coach Tom Brands does/doesn’t elect to deploy his pair of prized freshmen – Gabe Arnold and Ben Kueter.
Based strictly on individual rankings the Hawkeyes are favored at six weights, and at a seventh – 165 pounds – #7 Michael Caliendo owns a victory in the lone previous meeting between himself and #3 Izzak Olejnik. The two transfers from North Dakota State and Northern Illinois respectively met in the seventh-place match at NCAA’s a year ago with Caliendo winning a comfortable 6-2 decision.
Add in the upside of Arnold at 184 pounds and Kueter at 285 and nine separate matches in the dual feel quite winnable depending upon which Iowa lineup we see.
Of course, the winnability of nine ‘separate’ matches is hardly a guarantee that things will break Iowa’s way in all nine of them collectively.
Assuming they’re both at full-strength, neither of these lineups has more than one, maybe two significant underdogs in this dual. So, to my mind a variation of the old baseball adage “Momentum is the next day’s starting pitcher” could very much apply on Sunday – i.e. momentum is the next match of the dual.
Both teams have the capability to continue or stop a run throughout the ten weight classes, and whomever manages to capitalize more often within those fine margins figures to position their team to come out on the winning end of things.
Based on the probable lineups, the weight-by-weight matchups for this one are as follows:
125 pounds – #4 Drake Ayala (18-3) vs. #12 Troy Spratley (18-4)
133 pounds – #20 Cullan Schriever (8-3) OR Brody Teske (11-3) vs. #3 Daton Fix (12-0)
141 pounds – #2 Real Woods (13-2) vs. #8 Tagen Jamison (14-5)
149 pounds – #8 Caleb Rathjen (14-3) OR Victor Voinovich III (11-5) vs. #18 Jordan Williams (10-6) OR Sammy Alvarez (3-4)
157 pounds – #5 Jared Franek (19-3) vs. #10 Teague Travis (17-3)
165 pounds – #7 Michael Caliendo (19-3) vs. #3 Izzak Olejnik (19-3)
174 pounds – #7 Patrick Kennedy (11-4) vs. #21 Brayden Thompson (9-7)
184 pounds – Aiden Riggins (11-11) OR Gabe Arnold (8-0) vs. #2 Dustin Plott (21-2)
197 pounds – #11 Zach Glazier (20-1) vs. #16 Luke Surber (8-3)
285 pounds – #29 Bradley Hill (16-5) OR Ben Kueter (2-1) vs. #11 Konner Doucet (13-6)
While I’m wildly curious to see how almost all of these bouts play out on Sunday, due to the lack of previous history between most of the wrestlers involved I really don’t have much to offer in the way of individual pre-match analysis.
Other than Caliendo/Olejnik, the lone collegiate rematch we may see is Teske/Fix at 133 – last won by Fix 11-3 a year ago in Iowa City.
Besides that, Rathjen lost 3-3 on criteria in the 2021 Fargo Finals to Jordan Williams, but that was a freestyle match in which none of the points scored (two step-outs, two shot clocks and an exposure) translate over to folkstyle.
Like I said, there’s plenty of intrigue to be had, just not nearly as much reliable intel as to how it’s all likely to play out.
All of that leads me to a trio of overarching questions that could each play a massive role in Sunday’s outcome.
Bonus, anyone?
In a dual with so many bouts that could conceivably fall either way, bonus points could prove critical in the event that these two teams split their ten matches evenly.
Again, assuming full-strength lineups the most obvious candidate is probably 133 pounds where Daton Fix is certainly capable of lighting up a scoreboard. That said, he doesn’t always do so – wrestling some closer matches than you might think for a guy of his caliber.
In fact, his match with Teske a year ago was far closer than the final eight-point margin would suggest.
It was 4-3 Fix mid-third period on the back of a single takedown before Teske got caught trying to roll through a position and gave up a full set of near fall points.
Now as we’ve seen this season the new three-point takedown has made bonus points far easier to attain, so whether Teske/Schriever are stingy in Sunday’s match may not matter in terms of preventing a major decision.
Of course, the same opportunity exists for Iowa. Can Real Woods build off his senior day performance and return to the dominant form we’d grown accustomed to seeing? If so, there’s no reason he can’t approach bonus territory against a foe of #8 Tagen Jamison’s ranking/caliber.
He’s done it plenty of times before.
How about Patrick Kennedy at 174? His opponent #21 Brayden Thompson (9-7) was about as ‘blue chip’ as blue chippers get entering his career at OSU. But the true freshman has been up-and-down thus far in a Cowboy singlet.
We know PK keeps a high pace and will be looking to score for the full seven minutes. Can he get a key takedown/ride out somewhere to bring a major decision into the picture, then capitalize and finish the job? We’ll have to wait and see.
If Iowa can even match, much less exceed Oklahoma State’s bonus point total in the dual I think it’ll bode extremely well for their odds of winning.
So, about those freshmen…? (Yes, this again.)
Forget about what it does or doesn’t mean for the postseason ahead.
Having Gabe Arnold (absolutely) and Ben Kueter (most probably) in the Iowa lineup on Sunday afternoon gives the Hawkeyes their best chance of both winning close and winning comfortably against their hated rival.
And the best part of it all? You can still turn right around after the final whistle blows if you’re Tom Brands and throw the redshirt back on both guys like it’s a straitjacket if you want to.
This is exactly what the five-competition exception for true freshman was created for.
For big matches and big duals that it means something extra to your team and your fanbase to come out on the winning end of.
This decision is akin to a use-it-or-lose-it timeout in basketball, except in this case it’s almost undeniable that exercising the option will benefit the Hawkeyes, whereas a lot of times in hoops I don’t feel like burning that ‘extra’ timeout really does a damn thing.
There’s no downside to running Arnold and Kueter out there, especially given the invaluable experience it could provide for a duo that might very well form the backbone of your lineup as early as next season (not to mention for another three years beyond that).
I think we will see both on Sunday, and I think at least one of them will win.
Which Iowa team shows up?
I know it’s easy for Hawkeye fans to get caught up in the recency bias of back-to-back poor performances in marquee duals at #10 Michigan and home versus #1 Penn State, but this very same Iowa team has also stepped up in big moments this season.
Twice already the 2023-24 Hawkeyes have gone into hostile road environments against current top-five ranked opponents and emerged victorious.
In late-November it was a nip and tuck 18-14 win over #5 Iowa State, while post-New Years Iowa left Lincoln, NE with a convincing 22-10 victory over the third-ranked Huskers.
Will we see a similarly controlled, resilient showing from the Hawkeyes this Sunday? Who’s to say?
If so, you’ve got to like their chances.
Short time
That’ll just about do it for the last (dual) preview of the season.
We’re far from finished on the men’s (or women’s) side of things, but I just wanted to say how rewarding it has been for me to hop on board here at Hawkeye Report and get the opportunity to cover wrestling for the back half of the 2023-24 schedule.
I hope everyone checks back in for my recap of Sunday’s action, as well as an incredible women’s regional qualifier that just went down on Friday.
As always, thanks for reading and enjoy the wrestling this weekend.
