LSU Opponent Preview 2023: Auburn

Despite the two programs ending the 2022 season in different places, their meeting in Jordan-Hare Stadium was about as close as it gets before LSU escaped with a 21-17 win. From there, the two programs went in different directions, as Auburn had its worst season since 2012 and moved on from its head coach while LSU ended the season in the SEC Championship game and 10-4 overall.

We continue our schedule preview series today with a new-look Auburn team that has some potential on paper in 2023.

Prior teams: Florida State, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Missouri

Head coach: Hugh Freeze (1st season)

Offensive coordinator: Phillip Montgomery (1st season)

Defensive coordinator: Ron Roberts (1st season)

Last year

It was a second straight underwhelming season under Bryan Harsin, eventually leading to the end of his time as the Tigers’ head coach. Auburn ended the year 5-7 overall and 2-6 in SEC play with both of the SEC wins coming by three points. Five of the seven losses were by 14 or more. Harsin was let go after a 3-5 start to the season and Cadillac Williams took over for the final four games.

Offense

When looking at the shortcomings of last year’s roster it starts with Robby Ashford’s struggles at quarterback. In 12 games, Ashford completed just 49.2 percent of hispasses for 6.5 yards per attempt, seven touchdowns, and seven interceptions. He was the least effective starting quarterback in the SEC and had one of the worst receiving corps in the conference as well and as a result Auburn ranked 125th in pass EPA last year.

The run game was competent behind Tank Bigsby and Jarquez hunter for a second straight year. Ashford also helped boost the rushing stats with his scrambling ability. Auburn ranked 40th in rush EPA last year, the clear positive of this offense and this team.

Defense

The Tigers had a really solid front seven with Owen Pappoe, Derrick Hall, and Colby Wooden all posting impressive numbers throughout the season, The pass rush was effective enough and that led to the pass defense actually holding up well, ranking 46th in pass defense EPA.

It was the run game where Auburn continuously got torched. Ole Miss rushed for 448 yards. Georgia rushed for 292 yards. Arkansas rushed for 286 yards. Penn State rushed for 245 yards. The Tigers lacked that size and strength in the middle and were unable to commit more to the box. 

Offseason moves

Notable departures

Drafted: OLB Derrick Hall (Pick 37, 2nd round), RB Tank Bigsby (Pick 88, 3rd round), Colby Wooden (Pick 116, 4th round), LB Owen Pappoe (Pick 168, 5th round), K Anders Carlson (Pick 207, round 6)

Transferred: DE Dylan Brooks, DL Jeffrey M’Ba, WR Ze’Vian Capers, IOL Keiondre Jones, DL Marquis Robinson, QB Zach Calzada, QB TJ Finley, DL Tobechi Okoli, TE Landen King, S Craig McDonald.

Auburn loses its four best players to the NFL Draft, then loses eight more players to other P5 programs. Not only is Hugh Freeze inheriting a program coming off of back-to-back losing seasons, but now the cupboard is completely bare and ready for a ground-up rebuild on both sides.

Big-time additions

2023 Freshmen: DL Keldric Faulk, CB Kayin Lee, JUCO OT Izavion Miller, RB Jeremiah Cobb, DL Darron Reed.

Transfers: WR Shane Hooks, WR Jyaire Shorter, LB Larry Nixon, OT Jaden Muskrat, WR Caleb Burton, LB Jalen McLeod, LB Austin Keys, DL Justin Rogers, IOL Avery Jones, RB Brian Battie, WR Nick Mardner, DL Lawrence Johnson, LB Demario Tolan, OT Gunner Britton, OT Dillon Wade, TE Rivaldo Fairweather, QB Payton Thorne.

A total of 20 incoming transfers, most of which are viewed as starting-caliber players, this season will be a fascinating experiment to see how quickly Freeze can instill the culture necessary to compete in the SEC. With these transfers and a really quality recruiting class, Auburn is not void of talent, but it does lack P5 experience as only six of the 20 transfers come from other P5 programs.

Going into 2023

Top returners: CB DJ James, CB Nehemiah Pritchett, RB Jarquez Hunter, S Jaylin Simpson.

The clear strengths of this team are in the secondary and at running back entering 2023, the rest of the roster is one big question mark. The receivers and linebackers are talented on paper, but have to step up this season for this team to reach its potential. The defensive line has been talked about as the biggest uncertainty of the season, while Payton Thorne holds the keys to how good this offense will be as he battles it out with Robby Ashford.

Expectations

Luckily for Auburn, there’s no Penn State on the schedule this year. With four winnable non-conference games and Vanderbilt on the schedule, the Tigers should not struggle to get to a bowl game this season. With that being said, it’s going to be challenging to predict Auburn to beat any of the other teams in the SEC West at this point in the summer. Thorne has to be a legitimate starter and the rest of the roster has to come together quickly. Freeze is known for his ability to create quality offenses, but this is a lot more than just tweaking a few schemes.

Early LSU vs. Auburn game preview

Auburn’s pass game likely won’t be able to hurt the Tigers, but Hunter and Battie are explosive backs who will give every team in the SEC some fits. Still, I expect LSU’s defense to have success.

It’s the offense that badly struggled last year on the road and that will be the deciding factor in how high LSU’s ceiling is this season. LSU’s going to need to be able to run the ball against the shallow depth up front Auburn has. Auburn has one of the better cornerback duos in the SEC, so it’ll be fascinating to see how Mike Denbrock attacks.