Ranking Michigan basketball's remaining games by difficulty
Michigan was expected to be a shoo-in for an NCAA Tournament bid and one of the teams to beat coming into the season. Now, the Wolverines sit at 13-10 on the season and are firmly on the postseason bubble.
Seven games remain for head coach Juwan Howard and Michigan to get its affairs in order to make a push for the tournament. Any night in the Big Ten provides the opportunity for a resume-boosting win, but there are not any gimmes left on the schedule.
Here is a look at the road ahead and what KenPom projects the rest of the way.
RELATED: Bracketology: Examining Michigan’s NCAA Tournament candidacy
Feb. 23 vs. Rutgers – 73% chance of victory
Michigan already dropped a game at Rutgers on Jan. 4, so this is a game they can ill-afford to drop. The Scarlet Knights are on a three-game win streak that has seen them take down the likes of Michigan State, Ohio State and Wisconsin. Games against Illinois and Purdue precede the showdown with Michigan, but this one should be huge for bubble implications.
March 1 vs. Michigan State – 58% chance of victory
The Wolverines and Spartans get to renew their rivalry in a rescheduled game that was originally wiped out due to COVID. These two teams went back in forth during the game in East Lansing on Jan. 29, but MSU rolled in the second half in a statement win. The Spartans will likely still be fighting for a regular-season title when this game rolls around, so the motivation will be there to grab a season sweep. Michigan was able to correct mistakes it made that led to a loss at Purdue by beating them in a rematch. We will see if they can do the same with the Spartans
March 3 vs. Iowa – 52% chance of victory
This is what KenPom believes is a coin flip game for the Wolverines with the slight edge of grabbing a victory at home. The Hawkeyes do not have a win over any teams ranked higher than 41st (Indiana), so a 17-7 record is padded by a lot of lower-tier opponents. This would still be a huge resume win for Michigan if they were able to pull it off.
Feb. 27 vs. Illinois – 48% chance of victory
One of Michigan’s more admirable efforts of the season was in a loss at Illinois on Jan. 14. The Wolverines scrapped and fought despite being down a few notable players due to COVID within the program. Michigan should be at full strength for the rematch and ready for revenge against the Illini in hopes to play spoiler in their hunt for a Big Ten Championship.
Feb. 20 at Wisconsin – 38% chance of victory
The Wolverines head to Madison on Sunday for a crack at the Badgers for the first time this season. The Kohl Center is a tough place to head, especially for a young and developing basketball team. There will also be the challenge of finding a way to slow down sophomore star guard Johnny Davis. We should have a good idea of what the road ahead looks like after Sunday’s game.
March 6 at Ohio State – 31% chance of victory
Michigan will kick itself for letting a Feb. 12 game against the Buckeyes slip away at home. Every win is valuable this time of year and that was a missed opportunity. It would have been a cherry on top of a huge week, but instead ended a decent week after a win over Purdue. Grabbing a game they are not supposed to somewhere can make up for that. A revenge stop in Columbus fits the bill there and could help re-bolster the resume.
Feb. 17 at Iowa – 30% of victory
The next game on the schedule is the one that KenPom believes is the toughest remaining. Winning in Iowa City is traditionally difficult and Michigan has not consistently proven it can get the job done away from Crisler. Stealing a victory here after a few days of rest would be massive with most projections pointing to a potential 0-2 week.
Michigan’s resume as it stands
Our Clayton Sayfie did a deep dive on Michigan’s standing, but here we focus on what KenPom currently projects. The site says that the Wolverines should finish the season 16-14 (10-10 in Big Ten play). On its own, that might not be enough to squeak into the NCAA Tournament. Finding a way to get to 17 wins and heading to the Big Ten Tournament with a shot to pad another win or two feels like the path for the Wolverines.
The next challenge ahead lies in the form of Iowa on Thursday night. Tipoff is scheduled for just after 7 p.m. ET from Carver Hawkeye Arena with the game to be broadcast on ESPN.
