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Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball exhibition vs. Ferris State

clayton-sayfieby:Clayton Sayfie11/04/22

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Michigan Wolverines basketball will host Ferris State for an exhibition game Friday night. The Bulldogs are a top Division II program, having won the national title in 2018. They’re the defending GLIAC regular-season champions, having shared the league title with Michigan Tech last season.

Here, we take a look at both teams’ projected lineups, notes on the matchup, what to watch for and our prediction.

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Michigan vs. Ferris State game information

DateFriday, Nov. 4, 2022
VenueCrisler Center (Ann Arbor, Mich.)
Time7 p.m. ET
TV / StreamBTN+
RadioDetroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM)| Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com
On The CallBrian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)

Michigan projected starters

• #3 – Graduate guard Jaelin Llewellyn (6-2, 190) — The 2022 first-team All-Ivy League standout averaged 15.7 points, 4.1 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game with Princeton last season … Shot 38.3 percent from three-point range and 49 percent from inside the arc.

• #2 – Sophomore guard Kobe Bufkin (6-4, 195) — Played in 28 games off the bench a year ago, averaging 4 points and 1.1 rebounds in 10.6 minutes per contest … Shot 38 percent fro the field, including just 22.2 percent from long range.

• #13 – Freshman guard Jett Howard (6-8, 215) — The head coach’s son was ranked as the No. 40 overall player in the 2022 class per the On3 Consensus … Scored in double figures in both full-length overseas exhibition games in August, shooting 10-of-21 from the field.

• #5 – Junior forward Terrance Williams II (6-7, 225) — Made one career start but appeared in 52 contests … Averaged 4.7 points and 2.4 rebounds per outing while shooting 45.5 percent from the field and 38.5 percent from long range (best among returning Michigan players) a year ago.

• #1 – Junior center Hunter Dickinson (7-1, 260) — The two-time All-Big Ten performer and 2021 second-team All-American is Michigan’s leading returning point scorer (18.8 per game) and rebounder (8.6) … Averaged 2.3 assists per game last season, too, and shot a team-high 56.3 percent from the field … Hit 32.8 percent of his threes (21-of-64) and is the team’s returning leader in three-point makes.

Key bench contributors

• #0 – Freshman guard Dug McDaniel (5-11, 160) — Been the talk of the freshman class outside of Howard during the preseason, and he’ll play a role as the backup point guard … Ranked the No. 83 overall player in 2022 per the On3 Consensus.

• #15 – Graduate guard Joey Baker (6-7, 205) — The Duke transfer has played in 89 career games with four starts but has never averaged more than 12.1 minutes per game in a season … Known as a sharpshooter, Baker shot 40.5 percent from three-point range last season but attempted just 2.2 deep tries per outing … Averaged 4.5 points and 1.2 rebounds that season.

• #32 – Freshman forward Tarris Reed Jr. (6-10, 260) — Michigan’s highest-rated 2022 signee was ranked the No. 35 overall player in his class per the On3 Consensus … Will serve as Dickinson’s backup … Has the ability to play the ‘4’ in a bigger lineup, but he said last month that he was practicing exclusively at the ‘5.’

Ferris State projected starters

#3 – Redshirt junior guard Ben Davidson (6-3, 205) — The team’s returning leader in ball-screen possessions produced 0.957 points per possession on those plays last season … Averaged 11.9 points, 3.4 rebounds and 2 assists per game.

• #11 – Redshirt sophomore guard Somomon Oraegbu (6-3, 190) — Did not appear in any games last season … Scored 9 points on 4-of-7 shooting in last week’s exhibition win over Calvin College.

• #24 – Sophomore guard Jimmy Scholler (6-3, 205) — Registered 4.3 points, 4.6 assists and 3.6 rebounds per game a year ago.

• #0 – Redshirt junior forward Dolapa Olayinka (6-5, 215) — Led the team with 16 points, 4 assists and 4 rebounds in an exhibition win over Calvin College … The Northern Michigan transfer was second on his previous team with 9.5 points and 5.9 rebounds per game in 2019-20. 

• #34 – Redshirt junior center Vejas Grazulis (6-10, 240) — The Muskegon Community College transfer averaged 6 points and 3.3 rebounds per clash last season … Scored 0.931 points per post-up possession.

Key bench contributors

• #1 – Redshirt sophomore forward Deng Reng (6-6, 190) — Started 26 of 33 games as a freshman in 2019-20, averaging 5.5 points per game.

• #2 – Redshirt junior guard Amari Lee (6-0, 180) — The Roberts Wesleyan transfer averaged 11.5 points, 4.7 rebounds and 3.6 assists per contest with his previous school last season.

What to watch for

1. Michigan’s rotation

In last season’s exhibition game against Wayne State, an 87-54 Michigan win, four of the Wolverines’ five starters played 20-plus minutes, but none more than 27, and four bench players saw 10-plus minutes.’

Expect a good deal of rotation in this game, too, especially if/when Michigan grabs a big lead.

The Wolverines will likely start Llewellyn, Bufkin, Jett Howard, Williams and Dickinson — the group they began with during exhibition games in Europe and in their ‘secret scrimmage’ against Florida State.

We’ll see plenty of the bench players, too, and new guys like McDaniel, Baker, freshman forward Yousseff Khayat, Reed and others will be fascinating to watch in a Michigan jersey. Others like sophomore guard Isaiah Barnes and redshirt freshman Will Tschetter have reportedly improved after sitting out last season (Barnes played in two games but has applied for a redshirt waiver), and we’re interested to see what they look like in game action. How Bufkin has gotten better with his added weight and dedication to the gym is also something we’re curious about.

2. Level of execution

These games can look sloppy at times, and it’s important not to overreact to it if that’s the case. The level of focus isn’t always where Michigan’s coaches would like it, but that comes with playing an exhibition game — it’s hard to manufacture the adrenaline that comes with playing a big tilt.

Still, how Michigan executes will be something to watch. Crisp offensive sets, made open shots and being in position on defense are at the top of the list. Those things should translate regardless, and they’d be positive signs if that’s what we see.

Expect to see some zone defense from the Bulldogs, too. They ran that on 34 percent of possessions a year ago.

3. Hunter Dickinson vs. a Big Ten-sized big man and Jaelin Llewellyn’s debut

Surprisingly, Dickinson will be tested by an opposing big man with Big Ten size in Grazulis. He was a solid defender last season, allowing just 0.781 points per possessions on post-ups against D-II competition, but Dickinson should still have his way.

Grazulis also doesn’t have the mobility to limit Dickinson on the perimeter, so we should get the chance to see Dickinson throw up a few three-point attempts. He said at the beginning of the offseason he wanted to be in the high 30s of percent from long range this year, so we’ll get a glimpse at how much he’s improved.

Llewellyn is also making his debut for Michigan. We won’t learn a ton about him in this game — that will come when the competition stiffens — but we will see his chemistry with the other Wolverine players, namely Dickinson. That will be crucial in pick-and-roll situations this season, something Llewellyn didn’t do a whole lot of in the Princeton offense.

Remember, one of the biggest overreactions from last season’s exhibition game was that point guard DeVante’ Jones, a Coastal Carolina transfer, was the real deal. While he became a good player by season’s end, he really struggled out of the gate. The level of competition in this one is even worse than what Jones and Llewellyn played against at their previous stops. It’s not to say Llewellyn won’t be good and a great fit, but just that this game won’t prove anything.

Prediction

The No. 1 goal for Michigan, as silly as it even sounds to say, is to win the game. When former U-M head coach John Beilein would get asked how he was going to handle his rotation ahead of exhibitions, he’d always make sure to say that coming out on top isn’t a given.

That’s proven to be true this year, too. Louisville lost to D-II Lenoir-Rhyne just a few days ago, Michigan State trailed Grand Valley State at halftime, 36-31, and other high-major teams have struggled in the preseason.

We’re hedging a bit here, but it’s extremely difficult to predict how a game like this will go. Some of it predicates on how well the backups and reserves play. The headline says “prediction,” though, and we’ll give the people just that.

Prediction: Michigan 78, Ferris State 58

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